Edinburgh West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10767 (23.18%)
Labour: 12881 (27.73%)
Liberal Democrat: 16684 (35.92%)
SNP: 6115 (13.17%)
Majority: 3803 (8.19%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 22417 (49.5%)
Conservative: 8817 (19.5%)
Labour: 8433 (18.6%)
SNP: 4124 (9.1%)
Other: 1474 (3.3%)
Majority: 13600 (30%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8894 (22.5%)
Labour: 9130 (23.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16719 (42.4%)
SNP: 4047 (10.3%)
Other: 688 (1.7%)
Majority: 7589 (19.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13325 (28%)
Labour: 8948 (18.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20578 (43.2%)
SNP: 4210 (8.8%)
Referendum: 277 (0.6%)
Other: 293 (0.6%)
Majority: 7253 (15.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Stewart Geddes (Conservative) born Glasgow, but brought up in Brazil. Chartered management accountant. Former Basildon Councillor.
Cameron Day (Labour) Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Sheena Cleland (SNP) born Edinburgh. Educated at Edinburgh University. Runs a communications business. Contested Lothians Region in 2003 Scottish elections, Edinburgh West 2005, Edinburgh West and Lothians Region in 2007 Scottish Elections.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89295
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 97.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 60.9%
Muslim: 1%
Graduates 16-74: 28.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.4% (Council: 11.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
A possible Labour gain at next years Scottish Parliament Elections. Labour could win all 6 Edinburgh seats; also defeating the SNP in East, the Lib Dems in Southside and the Tories in Pentlands.
I think that many voters will be unhappy with the Con / Lib Dem coalition, but the ultimate result could be a Con/ Lib coalition at Westminster and a Lab/ Lib coalition at Holyrood.
Almost Certain Labour Gains -
Almond Valley
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane
Cunningham North
Dumfermline
Dundee West
Eastwood (notionally Conservative)
Edinburgh East
Falkirk West
Glasgow Southside (Perhaps small notional Lab Maj).
Glenrothes & Mid Fife
Stirling
I think that Nicola Sturgeon and Kenny MacAskill will both lose their seats but remain MSPs on the regional lists. Kenneth Macintosh will also ‘gain’ Easwood by 2000 – 4000, the equivalent of 5000 – 7000 on the current boundaries.
Too Close to Call -
Ayr
Edinburgh Pentlands
Edinburgh Southside
Galloway & West Dumfriesshire
Midlothian South & Peebles
The Labour vote is certain to rise in the above, and voting at the 2010 general elections would suggest Labour majorities but incumbancy is likely to be the reason for Labour falling short.
Possible Labour Gains (less than likely) -
Aberdeen Donside
Aberdeen South & Kincardine
Argyllshire & Bute
Caithness & Sutherland
Dundee East
Edinburgh West
Moray
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
The above seats have either been Labour before or Labour have come very close at some time since 1997. Ross / Skye almost went Labour in 1999 for example. Moray has also been extreemly close and Labours contraversial 2009 candidate may have caused Labour to underpoll. Edinburgh West will be interesting because Labour came second 3000 votes behind the Lib Dems in 2009. A reaction against the Coalition Westminster government could make this a Labour gain.
Unlikely Labour Gains -
Angus South
Inverness & Nairn
Kinross & Perthshire South
Shetland
The Western Isles
Although Inverness and The Western Isles have been Labour before but I think that incumbancy will make these seats hard for Labour to get back.
Kinross & Perthshire South would have been a Labour longshot (as they came a close third in 1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003) had it not been for the removal of East Perth and the addition of Kinross.
Shetland is better for Labour than Orkney
Impossible Labour Gains -
Aberdeenshire East
Aberdeenshire West
Angus North & Mearns
Berwick & Roxburgh
Buchan Coastal
Orkney
Perthshire North
It’s not completely inconceivable that on today’s polling ratings that this could be a 3 way marginal.
Fair point, I mean it’s hardly an area with a large Labour base, but the Liberal vote in Edinburgh is generally left of centre and could easily transfer to either the SNP or Labour.
I was suggesting it in terms of the three main parties. I suspect the SNP will remain a reasonable force in the Scottish parliament, but for the time being there’s no need to suppose they’re going anywhere in Westminster terms.
At least they’re not going anywhere for another five years:L I don’t see the SNP realistically coming close in this seat to be honest.
Ian’s analysis might not be far off sadly but I think Labour would rather be a minority government than go into coalition with the Lib Dems, who are likely to be down to around five seats anyway the way things are going. In fact they might be better trying to get a deal with the Greens than the Lib dems!
Boundary changes in 1983, gaining Queensferry from Linlithgow, Kirliston from Livingston and Muirhouse from Leith (all former SNP wards) ought to have helped the SNP, but not enough to push them up from a traditionally low base in this seat.
This is a possible Labour gain, if there is a strong reaction against the Coalition Government. Its even possible (though less likely) that the Lib Dems could retain Edinburgh Southside but lose here.
Currently there is only one notional Labour seat in Edinburgh (North & Leith, as Central is notionally Lib Dem now due to gaining the New Town/ Stockbridge).
I believe that Labour will ‘gain’ Edinburgh Central with ease, with Edinburgh East being the next easy picking.
Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Southside will be close calls and Edinburgh West could become the sixth Labour seat if they poll something between 45 – 50%, in line with current polls.
With a 3803 majority over Labour (and similar Holyrood/ Westminster boundaries) this seat could test the Scottish electorates reaction to the Liberals in the coalition.
I think the Lib Dems will suffer more in Central Scotland suburban areas than Highland seats.
Depends if any highland MPs defect to Labour (Charles Kennedy?).
Defectors in the highlands usually hold their seats.