Edinburgh West
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 22417 (49.5%)
Conservative: 8817 (19.5%)
Labour: 8433 (18.6%)
SNP: 4124 (9.1%)
Other: 1474 (3.3%)
Majority: 13600 (30%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8894 (22.5%)
Labour: 9130 (23.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16719 (42.4%)
SNP: 4047 (10.3%)
Other: 688 (1.7%)
Majority: 7589 (19.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13325 (28%)
Labour: 8948 (18.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20578 (43.2%)
SNP: 4210 (8.8%)
Referendum: 277 (0.6%)
Other: 293 (0.6%)
Majority: 7253 (15.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: John Barrett(Lib Dem) born 1954, Tasmania. Educated at Forrester High School, Edinburgh and Napier College. Former Edinburgh councillor and leader of Edinburgh Lib Dem group. Contested Linlithgow in 1999 Scottish elections. First elected as MP for Edinburgh West 2001. International development spokesman 2003-2005, Scottish spokesman 2005-2007, international development spokesman 2007-2008, work and pensions spokesman since 2008. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Stewart Geddes (Conservative) born Glasgow, but brought up in Brazil. Chartered management accountant. Former Basildon Councillor.
Cameron Day (Labour) 
Michael Crockart (Liberal Democrat)
Sheena Cleland (SNP) born Edinburgh. Educated at Edinburgh University. Runs a communications business. Contested Lothians Region in 2003 Scottish elections, Edinburgh West 2005, Edinburgh West and Lothians Region in 2007 Scottish Elections.Otto Inglis (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89295
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 97.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 60.9%
Muslim: 1%
Graduates 16-74: 28.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.8%
Social Housing: 15.4% (Council: 11.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
Love Mike Crockart’s quote :
“I’m over the moon to be elected, but I’m taking nothing for granted” !
I think Neil’s prediction looks about right – The Lib Dems will comfortably win, but not on the scale they did in 2005
Pete (2 Nov): in 2005, Edinburgh West gained Murrayfield and Stenhouse from Edinburgh Central, and lost Craigleith to Edinburgh North & Leith. Murrayfield and Craigleith are contiguous and, politically, broadly similar: Conservative but with a substantial Lib Dem minority. If anything, Murrayfield is the more Conservative of the two. Stenhouse is (or was) basically Labour, with the SNP in second. In summary: the boundary changes by themselves don’t explain the collapse in the Tory vote in 2005. Likelier reasons are the national swing to the Lib Dems and a first time incumbency vote for John Barrett.
Let me suggest a theory for the Lib Dem/Tory vote in 2005:
Background: Following a highly unpopular war in Iraq, on which the Lib Dems were the only main party to have been concsistently opposed to it, in line with mainstream public opinion.
Tory candidate: Election address carried front page picture of Tory candidate – a TA reservist – in army combats whilst serving in Iraq.
…..Whilst being a firm supporter of our military personnel myself, in the circumstances, I think this was a highly misguided judgement and is unfortunately indicative of what happens when associations become overwhelmed by a certain age bracket.
2005 – big enemy – Iraq War – Tory Candidate – Iraq War veteran
2010 – big enemy – bankers – Tory candidate – banker
Tartan Tory,
Your comments re 2005 are illuminating. Less so your deduction for 2010.
How does management accountant = banker ?
Does it really matter in a seat whioch contains lots of bankers and their families ?
FWIW, I would expect this seta to remain LD but with much reduced mahjority. Not only will there be a direct LD-Con swing of 4-6%, there will also be an LD-SNP swing of at least the same amount.
LDs may be able to squeeze the Lab vote – possibly by 3%, but SNP will find it easier to eat into this,
Though I don’t usually, I shall stick my neck out here and compute that as:
LD – 49 – 6 – 6 + 3 = 40
Con – 19 + 6 = 25
SNP – 9 + 6 + 5 = 18
Lab – 18 -3 -5 = 10
No doubt the individual churn figures will vary somewhat, but I suspect that that will be the eventual order.
LD hold still with a reduced majority between 9000-10000.