Edinburgh South West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11026 (24.25%)
Labour: 19473 (42.83%)
Liberal Democrat: 8194 (18.02%)
SNP: 5530 (12.16%)
Green: 872 (1.92%)
Scottish Socialist: 319 (0.7%)
Others: 48 (0.11%)
Majority: 8447 (18.58%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 17476 (39.8%)
Conservative: 10234 (23.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9252 (21.1%)
SNP: 4654 (10.6%)
Other: 2310 (5.3%)
Majority: 7242 (16.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Edinburgh Pentlands.
2001 Result
Conservative: 14055 (36.1%)
Labour: 15797 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4210 (10.8%)
SNP: 4210 (10.8%)
UKIP: 105 (0.3%)
Other: 555 (1.4%)
Majority: 1742 (4.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14813 (32.4%)
Labour: 19675 (43%)
Liberal Democrat: 4575 (10%)
SNP: 5952 (13%)
Referendum: 422 (0.9%)
Other: 305 (0.7%)
Majority: 4862 (10.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alistair Darling(Labour) born 1953, London. Educated at Loretto School and the University of Aberdeen. Advocate. Lothian councillor 1982-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh Central in 1987. Shadow home affairs spokesman 1988-1992. Shadow treasury spokesman from 1992-1997. Following Labour`s 1997 election victory he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Secretary of State for Social Security from 1998-2001, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2001-2002, Secretary of State for Transport 2001-2006, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (and Scotland) 2006-2007 and Chancellor of the Exchequer 2007-2010. A quiet, unassuming, safe pair of hands he was – along with Gordon Brown and Jack Straw – one of only 3 MPs to serve in the cabinet continuously from 1997 to 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Jason Rust (Conservative) Solicitor. Edinburgh councillor.Alistair Darling(Labour) born 1953, London. Educated at Loretto School and the University of Aberdeen. Advocate. Lothian councillor 1982-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh Central in 1987. Shadow home affairs spokesman 1988-1992. Shadow treasury spokesman from 1992-1997. Following Labour`s 1997 election victory he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Secretary of State for Social Security from 1998-2001, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2001-2002, Secretary of State for Transport 2001-2006, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (and Scotland) 2006-2007 and Chancellor of the Exchequer 2007-2010. A quiet, unassuming, safe pair of hands, he was – along with Gordon Brown and Jack Straw – one of only 3 MPs to have served in the cabinet throughout the whole of Labour`s 1997-2010 period in government (more information at They work for you)
Tim McKay (Liberal Democrat) Accountant and investment analyst. Edinburgh councillor since 2007.
Kaukab Stewart (SNP) Contested Glasgow Anniesland in the 1999 Scottish elections, Edinburgh North & Leith 2001.
Clare Cooney (Green) Colin Fox (Scottish Socialist) Caroline Bellamy (Communist League) Sewing machinist2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94207
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 17.7%
Born outside UK: 7.8%
White: 95.9%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.9%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 55.5%
Muslim: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 28.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 18.9% (Council: 11.7%, Housing Ass.: 7.1%)
Privately Rented: 11.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14.1%
Darling has had that most vital of attributes:
Luck
Consider the people he is compared against:
Brown
Balls
Osborne
Difficult not to be viewed more highly when they’re the alternative.
Does anyone know what the notional result in Edinburgh Pentlands would have been in 2005 had it still existed?
You can hardly claim Darling has been a lucky Chancellor when he came into the job just as the economy hit its most turbulent period in recent times.
That’s like saying Lloyd George and Chrchill were unlucky to become PM during world wars.
Events create opportunities.
Richard: hard to judge, but allowing for usual tactical voting caveats, I reckon Tory by between 500 and 1000.
‘I reckon Tory by between 500 and 1000′
As I say, Brown has said he’d like Darling to stay on as chancellor if Labour win, so in this event, would it be Balls after all?? Unless he loses his seat as well!! Then who would it be?
In the kind of scenario where Labour lose this seat and Morley & Outwood it doesn’t seem very likely that Gordon Brown will be appointing anyone as Chancellor
I don’t think Churchill and Lloyd-George are entirely a fair analogy, Richard. People rally around at time of war. Chancellors of the Exchequer in tough economic times don’t normally get that benefit of the doubt.
But I see your point that, if we lived in wholly benign times, people may well have no opinion about Darling. However, he has stepped up to the plate in a way you wouldn’t really have expected.
The worst time to inherit the chancellor role is immediately after the next election!! The UK has ‘maxed out’ on its credit cards! There are tough times ahead.
Whilst I don’t blame Darling for all of the mess, I equally don’t think that Mssrs Brown and Darling should be patting themselves on the back (as they were last week). I believe that Darling will probably just about hold on at the next GE
At the last Holyrood elections the SNP vote was high and the Lib Dem vote low – the inverse of the 2005 general election.
If this switch re-occurs in May then the result could be very close.
Well I walked past him in Brighton & said Good evening, Comrade Darling some years ago. He saw my delegate’s badge & responded brightly. There are many even worse names that people can have of course. There was once a Labour candidate in the 1950s (whom my father knew slightly) called Ivor Million.
Lab Hold= 5,000 maj
Think it will be a bit closer.
Labour 16000
SCUP 12500
SNP 7500
LD 6500
Oth 2000
Labour
Conservative
Libdem
SNP
Majority – 2500
Alistair Darling is in today’s Daily Telegraph conceding he may well be defeated in this seat. I think there is a wide difference between what the polls are telling us and what is happening on the ground. The pattern of Labour MPs either throwing in the towel in semi – marginal or even safe Labour seats is quite striking. I presume Alistair Darling’s canvass returns are not too healthy!
Lab Hold
Maj 4100
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/General-Election-2010-Strewth-What39s.6228795.jp
the LD canditate has decided to go on holiday Down Under rather than do all that boring campaigning.
Turns out the Lib Dem candidate is on holiday in AUSTRALIA rather than on the campaign trail!
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/General-Election-2010-Strewth-What39s.6228795.jp
Labour: 12000
Conservative: 11500
Liberal Democrat: 10500
SNP: 9000
Other: 2000
Majority: 500
Dalek – I feel your figures are quite wrong. I doubt it will be that close. The Lib Dems will only translate their new found popularity into large votes in areas that they are really working at.
The Libs are focussing their efforts on South and North& Leith so I can’t see their vote holding up as well here.
The Tories will go for it but I predict a Labour hold. 3000 maj.
Lab maj 2,000
Really have a lot of respect for the Chancellor and,although he is fighting a tough battle,I hope he continues to represent Edinburgh SW.Could be a close result but less than 2000 I don’t see.Perhaps Lib Dems come 2nd.
This could be much closer than expected – much will depend on whether Lab can get their vote out – they’ve found this difficult here in the past.
What effect will demographic changes since 2005 have? My impression is that may help the Tories.
Tories to take this seat unfortunately. LibDem and SNP will both take votes off Darling.
No sign of Labour campaigning at all.
I’ve heard some talk from certain circles in the Tory camp (of course they could just be talking up their chances) that they may take this seat!
I still think this will be a Lab hold on around the 2-3000 thousand region.
Anybody got any local knowledge?
Alistair has proved to be a bigger man than the PM and it would be sad if he didn’t carry through on May 6th.Truth hurts at times but he has been more honest than most and should be respected for that.Think it’s Tory blabbing and would welcome AD as an interim Leader of the Party if Gordon loses.
I have to say Alistair Darling certainly has far more decorum and honour than his boss
Clement Attlee was an interim leader, and he lasted 20 years.
Labour seems to be holding up better in Scotland – perhaps Darling will scrape back in after all!
Tory gain due to Darling’s record on the economy- lacklustre performance with Andrew Neil- labour vote very soft in the housing schemes- Middle class voters out for blood due to handling of the economy and will turn out for Tories in force.
No shock result here.
Darling to hold on with a very comfortable majority.
I’d say the Tories have no chance of winning this seat and have every chance of coming third
LAB HOLD
but with a swing TO Darling, I didn’t expect. Again the Scottish urban middle-class confounds the Tories. Some of the wards here are Tory strongholds!
I wonder how many Scottish Conservative flops will now attempt to follow Rifkind and inflict themselves on the English Conservatives.
I assume Darling will be speaking as Shadow Chancellor on the 22nd of June, until a Shadow Chancellor is appointed in September?
I wonder whether it will be Darling or Balls?
Edinburgh Pentlands May 2011
Con 11981
Lab 11909
SNP 6088
Lib Dem 2982
Edinburgh Pentlands 2011
Con 11600
Lab 10700
SNP 7800
LD 3500
Has anyone speculated on what the result in Pentlands might have been in May if it had still existed for Westminster?
Seems very likely to have been LAB HOLD judging from Darling’s result even after making necessary adjustments.
1700 Con Maj in 2001 became 7600 notional Labour majority, so Darling would have won by EP by 2500.
However, Darling would still be MP for Edinburgh Central, and Rust may have had a better chance against Linda Clarke
Had the seat not been abolished and Rifkind stood again then its likely that he would have won in 2005 and just held on on 2010.
I think Pentlands on the notionals falls right into the grey area where Labour may or may not take it on the swing I expect they’ll get next year. NOt quite ready to predict who will win here, but expect it to go right down to the wire. Possible recount territory.
On the current boundaries, the Tories would hold on.
The new notional boundaries reduce the Tory majority from 4500 to 2500, so the boundary changes could be significant to the outcome.
Lib dems held up surprisingly well here at the GE , must of got their vote out in Dalry/Fountainbridge etc.
Edinburgh Pentlands will go down to the wire next year.
Mcletchie has a pretty strong personal vote in Colinton, Fairmilehead etc but the labour vote is more likely to come out in Oxgangs/Firrhill,Longstone etc than last time.
Mcletchie would have no difficulty under the current boundaries.
If he loses, it will be down to the boundary changes which half his majority.
Pretty disastrous result for the Tories here. I don’t think McLetchie deserved to lose, he seemed to be a good constituency MSP, but was clearly affected by the SNP surge throughout Scotland. I don’t understand why he got less than 10,000 votes though – it seems strange that people switched from Tory to SNP in this particular seat.
@Calum Smith
Yes this was a shock for me too, I was convinced McLetchie’s vote wouldn’t fall below 33% and that he would narrowly hold on.
Both my parents actually voted for McLetchie and neither of them had voted tory last year
Very rarely do the losing candidates actually deserve to lose Calum.
David McLetchie is however in very fine company and perhaps should be consoled by that. He’s in much better company I suspect with the ‘losers’ than he would have been amongst the ‘winners’!