Edinburgh South West
2005 Results:
Labour: 17476 (39.8%)
Conservative: 10234 (23.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9252 (21.1%)
SNP: 4654 (10.6%)
Other: 2310 (5.3%)
Majority: 7242 (16.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Edinburgh Pentlands.
2001 Result
Conservative: 14055 (36.1%)
Labour: 15797 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4210 (10.8%)
SNP: 4210 (10.8%)
UKIP: 105 (0.3%)
Other: 555 (1.4%)
Majority: 1742 (4.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14813 (32.4%)
Labour: 19675 (43%)
Liberal Democrat: 4575 (10%)
SNP: 5952 (13%)
Referendum: 422 (0.9%)
Other: 305 (0.7%)
Majority: 4862 (10.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Alistair Darling(Labour) born 1953, London. Educated at Loretto School and the University of Aberdeen. Advocate. Lothian councillor 1982-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh Central in 1987. Shadow home affairs spokesman 1988-1992. Shadow treasury spokesman from 1992-1997. Following Labour`s 1997 election victory he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Secretary of State for Social Security from 1998-2001, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2001-2002, Secretary of State for Transport 2001-2006, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (and Scotland) 2006-2007 and Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2007. A quiet, unassuming, safe pair of hands, following the departure of Tony Blair and John Prescott he is now – along with Gordon Brown and Jack Straw – one of only 3 MPs to have served in the cabinet continuously since 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Jason Rust (Conservative) Solicitor. Edinburgh councillor.Alistair Darling(Labour) born 1953, London. Educated at Loretto School and the University of Aberdeen. Advocate. Lothian councillor 1982-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh Central in 1987. Shadow home affairs spokesman 1988-1992. Shadow treasury spokesman from 1992-1997. Following Labour`s 1997 election victory he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Secretary of State for Social Security from 1998-2001, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2001-2002, Secretary of State for Transport 2001-2006, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (and Scotland) 2006-2007 and Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2007. A quiet, unassuming, safe pair of hands, following the departure of Tony Blair and John Prescott he is now – along with Gordon Brown and Jack Straw – one of only 3 MPs to have served in the cabinet continuously since 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Tim McKay (Liberal Democrat) Accountant and investment analyst. Edinburgh councillor since 2007.
Kaukab Stewart (SNP) Contested Glasgow Anniesland in the 1999 Scottish elections, Edinburgh North & Leith 2001.
Clare Cooney (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94207
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 17.7%
Born outside UK: 7.8%
White: 95.9%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.9%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 55.5%
Muslim: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 28.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 18.9% (Council: 11.7%, Housing Ass.: 7.1%)
Privately Rented: 11.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14.1%
I think that Darling’s more honest approach to the economic crisis is likely to save him.
More likely the boundary changes to Pentlands forming SW.
SW is still a better seat for the Conservatives than Darlings old Edinburgh Central, even the more Tory 1983 – 1997 version of Central (which included Stockbridge and The New Town and excluded Steinhouse and Moat).
SW would have been Tory in 1983, and on the knife edge in 1987/ 1992.
David Nettleton – yes! He does look like David Steele! I should know – I watched Steele’s Test debut at Lords in 1975 from the Tavern. More seriously Peter is absolutely correct. This is as currently drawn one of the most polarised seats in Scotland.
You can’t get to Edinburgh South because if you click on the link you end up in Edinburgh SW.
I tried clicking the Edinburgh SW link to see if that would take me to Edinburgh South but that still goes to SW.
I even tried clicking on Edinburgh South in target seats and still I ended up in SW.
Colin Fox selected by the SSP to stand here
I think Alistair Darling will hold this seat with a 2000 majority over the Conservatives. No successful political decapitation here.
I think SNP will come third and LibDems fourth.
To factors could result in Darling losing -
1 – A direct swing from Conservative to Labour (which most people believe won’t be as much as the required 8.3%)
2 – The SNP polled only 10% here in 2005. If they poll something more like 20% (and most would come from Labour) then the direct swing from Labour to Conservative would only be less than 5%. I think the SNP will take alot of votes from Labour in Sighthill and Wester Hales
The Conservatives did not do too well against the 2001 notional result for this seat – but that was largely down to the unwinding Rifkind personal factor who stood in Edinburgh Pentlands in 2001.
I predict a Labour hold.
Lab hold of around 1000-3000 seems about fair, unless Lab vote really drops.