Comments on: Edinburgh South

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 13:52:17 +0000

Boundary proposals for Edinburgh have been leaked a day early.

This constituency loses South Morningside and Fairmilehead to SW and gains Prestonfield and Portobello/Craigmillar and is renamed Edinburgh East.

Sheila Gilmore probably won’t be too happy!

By: Dalek

Dalek — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 23:16:27 +0000

Tories did well in the recent City Centre By Election. “Alasdair Rankin beat Conservative candidate Iain McGill into second place with 1368 votes to 1264 in the final count.”

They topped the poll on first preference, and only finished 104 short of the SNP in the final round.

The Lib Dems fell from just under 20% to around 7%.

The result does not necessarly suggest that the mass of the Lib Dem vote in Edinburgh will pass to Labour in 2014/ 2015.

By: P.U.M.P

P.U.M.P — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 16:32:27 +0000

A very interesting 4 way marginal next time. With the boundary changes that are supposed to happen I can see this seat with it’s redrawn boundaries turning into a large Lab maj.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 14:29:53 +0000

Edinburgh Southern (excluding Kaimes/Gilmerton and including Craiglockhart+Chesser) was the most striking/surprising SNP gain from the LDs at the holyrood election as Edinburgh C&W and Fife NE were at least hyped.

SNP Jim Eadie 9,947 29.4 +12.3
Labour Paul Godzik 9,254 27.4 +3.3
Liberal Democrats Mike Pringle 8,297 24.6 -11.8
Conservative Gavin Brown 6,298 18.6 -3.7

The LDs also only got 8.7% on the list in Edinburgh Southern.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:39:28 +0000

Also depends on whether labour regain power at holyrood or not and whether they take unpopular decisions.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:29:51 +0000

Perhaps Joseph although Darling might still fancy his chances in Edinburgh West.

Depending on how a new Edinburgh South seat is drawn the LDs might still be able to exert a squeeze on the Con vote of 3-5% in Colinton, S Morningside, Fairmilehead etc but this might be outweighed by younger voters defecting to Labour.

Sheila Gilmore also might be reluctant to retire after a term.

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 17:34:38 +0000

If Edinburgh South is indeed split in some way, shape or form, I think it would be likely for the current MP Ian Murray replacing Alistair Darling as the MP for whatever seat would be formed with Darling retiring.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 17:23:29 +0000

I don’t think it will be as simple as that. With boundary changes, you have to consider the bigger picture, and much will depend on knock-on effects from other seats, and with which council, or councils, Edinburgh as a whole is linked. Edinburgh is entitled to just over 4.2 seats on the new quota, which means that part of the city will have to be transferred to a seat that consists predominantly of parts of East Lothian, Midlothian or West Lothian. The question is which part of the city that will be, since it will have an impact on how the remaining seats are configured.

For what it’s worth, I think Edinburgh South *is* likely to be split between South West and East. But I’d be surprised if the resulting South West and East seats (and West and North seats) bore much resemblance to the current seats of those names, or at least not in every case. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there were a new seat in south Edinburgh that, based on 2010 results, was notionally a Lab-LD marginal.

By: P.U.M.P

P.U.M.P — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 16:25:54 +0000

Given the boundary changes that are about to happen, Edinburgh South is the smallest of the Ed. seats. Could it be split between South West and East?

By: A Brown

A Brown — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 00:04:59 +0000

Another interesting factor is that the greens are to stand candidates in a few FPTP seats held by lib dems.
We’ve yet to see any true bounce similar to 2003 for the greens who are currently polling about 5% on the list so I woder if their profile will rise nearer the election?