Edinburgh South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9452 (21.58%)
Labour: 15215 (34.74%)
Liberal Democrat: 14899 (34.02%)
SNP: 3354 (7.66%)
Green: 881 (2.01%)
Majority: 316 (0.72%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 14188 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 13783 (32.3%)
Conservative: 10291 (24.1%)
SNP: 2635 (6.2%)
Other: 1801 (4.2%)
Majority: 405 (0.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6172 (16.6%)
Labour: 15671 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10172 (27.4%)
SNP: 3683 (9.9%)
Other: 1468 (3.9%)
Majority: 5499 (14.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9541 (21.3%)
Labour: 20993 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7911 (17.6%)
SNP: 5791 (12.9%)
Referendum: 504 (1.1%)
Other: 98 (0.2%)
Majority: 11452 (25.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Ian Murray (Labour) Runs an events management company. Edinburgh councillor.
Neil Hudson (Conservative) contested Newcastle North 2005Ian Murray (Labour) Runs an events management company. Edinburgh councillor.Fred Mackintosh (Liberal Democrat) born 1970. Educated at Dulwich College and Edinburgh University. Advocate. Edinburgh councillor 1999-2007. Contested Livingston 1992, Midlothian 2005. Sandy Howat (SNP) Educated at Aberdeen and Glasgow universities. Financial consultant.Steve Burgess (Green) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85796
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 19.9%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 9.8%
White: 94.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 2%
Christian: 54.3%
Muslim: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 39.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.3%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 12.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.1%
Also depends on whether labour regain power at holyrood or not and whether they take unpopular decisions.
Edinburgh Southern (excluding Kaimes/Gilmerton and including Craiglockhart+Chesser) was the most striking/surprising SNP gain from the LDs at the holyrood election as Edinburgh C&W and Fife NE were at least hyped.
SNP Jim Eadie 9,947 29.4 +12.3
Labour Paul Godzik 9,254 27.4 +3.3
Liberal Democrats Mike Pringle 8,297 24.6 -11.8
Conservative Gavin Brown 6,298 18.6 -3.7
The LDs also only got 8.7% on the list in Edinburgh Southern.
A very interesting 4 way marginal next time. With the boundary changes that are supposed to happen I can see this seat with it’s redrawn boundaries turning into a large Lab maj.
Tories did well in the recent City Centre By Election. “Alasdair Rankin beat Conservative candidate Iain McGill into second place with 1368 votes to 1264 in the final count.”
They topped the poll on first preference, and only finished 104 short of the SNP in the final round.
The Lib Dems fell from just under 20% to around 7%.
The result does not necessarly suggest that the mass of the Lib Dem vote in Edinburgh will pass to Labour in 2014/ 2015.
Boundary proposals for Edinburgh have been leaked a day early.
This constituency loses South Morningside and Fairmilehead to SW and gains Prestonfield and Portobello/Craigmillar and is renamed Edinburgh East.
Sheila Gilmore probably won’t be too happy!
Well the chappie in the penguin suit beat the LDs in the Pentland Hills ward, and asked to comment on the radio said that people felt “disenfranchised” by the political parties. I do get tired of tosh like this. If people are so disenfranchised, why have Others suffered a large net loss of councillors to the main parties (mainly but not only Labour) ? The word disenfranchised is far too often and far too lazily used.
I think its true to an extent in that the disenfranchised haven’t voted for others, just stayed at home.
I would say the most likely order of the parties here in 2015 is Lab 1st Con 2nd LD 3rd SNP 4th with the Greens managing to hold their deposit.
The tory vote should hold up due to the solidity of their core vote in their strongest areas of S Morningside and Fairmilehead.
I think the LDs should retain 3rd because Jenny Dawe was a serious drag on the core LD vote in Morningside/Merchiston at the local elections.
I would also say that Morningside (or at least the Cluny polling district) is just about the SNP’s weakest area of electoral support in Scotland at all levels.
completely agree with all of that
The SNP did beat Labour by 5% on the constituency vote in the Glenvarloch polling district in May 2011.
That could have been the only area where the SNP were ahead in that regard then but it’s impossible to tell whether Ewan Aitken carried Gracemount/Gilmerton or not.