Edinburgh South
2005 Results:
Labour: 14188 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 13783 (32.3%)
Conservative: 10291 (24.1%)
SNP: 2635 (6.2%)
Other: 1801 (4.2%)
Majority: 405 (0.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6172 (16.6%)
Labour: 15671 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10172 (27.4%)
SNP: 3683 (9.9%)
Other: 1468 (3.9%)
Majority: 5499 (14.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9541 (21.3%)
Labour: 20993 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7911 (17.6%)
SNP: 5791 (12.9%)
Referendum: 504 (1.1%)
Other: 98 (0.2%)
Majority: 11452 (25.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Nigel Griffiths(Labour) born 1955, Glasgow. Educated at Hawick High School and Edinburgh university. Edinburgh councillor 1980-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh South in 1987. Deputy leader of the House of Commons 2005-2007 when he resigned over the issue of Trident. Will retire at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Neil Hudson (Conservative) contested Newcastle North 2005Ian Murray (Labour) Runs an events management company. Edinburgh councillor.Fred Mackintosh (Liberal Democrat) born 1970. Educated at Dulwich College and Edinburgh University. Advocate. Edinburgh councillor 1999-2007. Contested Livingston 1992, Midlothian 2005. Sandy Howat (SNP) Educated at Aberdeen and Glasgow universities. Financial consultant.Steve Burgess (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85796
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 19.9%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 9.8%
White: 94.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 2%
Christian: 54.3%
Muslim: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 39.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.3%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 12.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.1%
Ladbrokes predict that Labour will regain ‘Dumfermline & West Fife’. Had it not been for the Lib Dem gain of the similar ‘Dunfermline West’ Holyrood seat in 2007 (following the by election) I might agree.
I think that seat will be hard to predict and will be extreemly close, and therefore is not as clear cut as Glasgow East.
Are they expected to lose Dunfermline & West Fife (the byelection gain)?
Yes they are, by Ladbrokes. For quite a long time after the by-election, the perception was that Willie Rennie would have a great chance of holding on, but as Labour has improved in the Scottish opinion polls, and after the good Labour result in Glenrothes, the chances of a Labour regain are generally thought to have improved.
It would be surprising if Labour cannot win Dunfermline back, not least because it’s next door to Gordon Brown’s seat where we can probably expect an increase in the Labour vote. I think if the LDs hold the seat it would portend something akin to a meltdown situation for Labour, with less than 200 seats and 30% of the vote.
Yes but it would not be greatly more dramatic than the retention of Brent East in 2005.
I don’t think that Dumfermline West / Dumfermline & West Fife is such a natural Labour seat that it would automatically go back to Labour.
Tories came within 3000 in 1983.
Lib Dems gained the Holyrood seat in 2007.
Lib Dems have been strong in local government for some time.
This seat is of mixed character, half is typical of the two solid Labour seats in Fife while the rest is quite like NE Fife.
Labour will select from an Open shortlist – Labour group leader Donald Anderson has ruled himself out of the selection
Cllrs Ian Murray and Angela Blacklock are the only 2 on the Labour shortlist according to The Scotsman
Are Labour down and out in this seat regardless of which councillor they select?
Labour have selected Ian Murray here
This seat is an interesting mix of radical inner city middle class areas (Lib Dem vs Tory vs Lab vs SNP), affluent suburb (Tory vs Lib Dem) and periferal council housing estate (Labour vs SNP).
I agree that Labour will come third, and that this is a contest between the Lib Dems and the Tories.
I had thought that, but with both narrowing of the national polls and strong evidence that Labour are holding up much better in Scotland than elsewhere (and with the LDs doing particularly badly there) might not odds of 3/1 on Labour currently available at Ladbrokes represent quite good value?
I agree with that, I think Labour have a good chance of holding on to Edinburgh South. But any strong performance by Labour in Scotland is likely to be offset by worse than average results in the South and Midlands.
Without being complacent, I don’t think the Conservatives are doing as badly in the national polls as the media would have us believe.
The 2005 general election result showed that the Labour lead was overestimated by an average of 3 points, if you average what all the polling organisations said in their final polls before election day. This always seems to happen.
YouGov (and their colleagues in BPIX) are the ones who are showing Labour support as the highest – and I’m wondering if the Sun is starting to regret not having chosen someone else (Angus Reid?, he, he) for their poll reports, the results of which are being rammed down our throats on a daily basis.
If one averages the most recent polls out for all the less reported polling organisations (in particular ICM, ComRes and Harris) we are still in fact on C 38, Lab 31, LD 18.
Compare that to what the polls were saying at this stage of the previous Parliament (March 2005), there has been a national uniform swing of 6%. We still have a lot of work to do, but we are still on course to achieve a working majority, with the swings likely to be bigger in the marginals.
Like I say, however, no complacency.
With only a few weeks to go it will be difficult for Labour to make up ground and the Lib Dems have been active in this seat for years. Tories only seem to be active in the Morningside area. I expect that Labour will talk up the Tory vote to try and stop the Lib Dems – it worked last time. Whoever wins, it is going to be close!
Its quite possible if the Greens mobilise in Bruntsfield, Marchmont, Sciennes and parts of Newington they could vertake the SNP and finish 4th. I suspect they’ll be throwing a lot of effort into North & Leith as well.
No, the Greens will be concentrating on Edinburgh East, where Robin Harper is their candidate. They are likely to do better in seats like East which the Lib Dems are not targetting.