Edinburgh South
2005 Results:
Labour: 14188 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 13783 (32.3%)
Conservative: 10291 (24.1%)
SNP: 2635 (6.2%)
Other: 1801 (4.2%)
Majority: 405 (0.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6172 (16.6%)
Labour: 15671 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10172 (27.4%)
SNP: 3683 (9.9%)
Other: 1468 (3.9%)
Majority: 5499 (14.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9541 (21.3%)
Labour: 20993 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7911 (17.6%)
SNP: 5791 (12.9%)
Referendum: 504 (1.1%)
Other: 98 (0.2%)
Majority: 11452 (25.5%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Nigel Griffiths (Labour) born 1955, Glasgow. Educated at Hawick High School and Edinburgh university. Edinburgh councillor 1980-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh South in 1987. Deputy leader of the House of Commons 2005-2007 when he resigned over the issue of Trident (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Neil Hudson (Conservative) contested Newcastle North 2005
Fred Mackintosh (Liberal Democrat) born 1970. Educated at Dulwich College and Edinburgh University. Advocate. Edinburgh councillor 1999-2007. Contested Livingston 1992, Midlothian 2005.
Sandy Howat (SNP) Educated at Aberdeen and Glasgow universities. Financial consultant.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85796
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 19.9%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 9.8%
White: 94.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 2%
Christian: 54.3%
Muslim: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 39.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.3%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 12.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.1%
There is still a year to go to the next GE if the events of this week are anything to go by.
Remember Harold Wilson’s adage!
Cogload…’the voice of reason!’. I have already dropped a ‘clanger’ 12 weeks or so ago predicting that Julie Kirkbride would be a cabinet minister next year!
The best news from very recent events is that anything is possible in UK politics!
I notice that the Tories are now the even money favourites to take this seat with the Lib Dems at 11/8 and with the sitting Labour MP pushed out to 7/2.
Just possibly this is because in Neil Hudson the Tories have an exceptionally popular candidate ( why do people always like vets?) who through his university work is garnering a considerable personal vote in the area.
For all that he has clearly fallen from grace Nigel Griffiths has been a good constituency MP and he will be remembered for that.
The Lib Dem candidate is very worthy but on the stump he is no match for the other two nor does he have the same resources or activists behind him. Nevertheless he remains a reasonable bet at 11/8 but only if it is felt that his party can buck the national trend in this seat. The Lib Dem poll rating in Scotland allied to their showing in the Euro elections is dismal.
The actual Euro votes for the Edinburgh South parliamentary seat were
Con 5291 LD 5213 Lab 4266 SNP 4145 Green 3417 .
The figures are so small compared to a GE turnout that they tell us very little .
In the 2004 Euro elections the Conservatives led in 13 of the 72 parliamentary seats the LibDems in just 6 compare that to the no of seats won in the 2005 GE and it is pretty clear that the Conservatives are unlikely to win here .
Euro elections are not great indicators of what’s likely to happen in a General Election (1994 apart).
Nevertheless, the 2009 Euro elections, at GB total, probably had the Lib Dems closer to the share they’ll get in a General Election than the Tories did compared to the share they’re likely to get.
I totally disagree JJB , the Euro results in 2004 vastly understated the LibDem performance in the 2005 GE , the local election results on the same day dis not and so it will prove to be so next year .
Lot’s of wishful thinking from the Tories here (both English and Tartan varieties).
Given the Lib Dem vote in the European election was just 1% down on 2004 most people wouldn’t judge that as dismal. And as Mark Senior points out the 2004 Euros were a pretty woeful indicator of the following year’s general.