Will Patterson says the SNP “topped” the poll in a council ward.
But that was only because there was 2 Labour candidates.

Sorry but such new labour spin wont help the SNP in Edinburgh South.

The LibDems will probably win this seat with the SNP fighting the Tories for third place. That is just the way it is.

The number of votes cast IN PERSON at the Holyrood elections in 2007 for Edinburgh South were:

Lab 7750 Con 4036 LD 9168 SNP 5126.

To get the equivalent result for the Westminster Edinburgh South, you need to subtract the votes in the bit that is in Edinburgh East at Westminster elections:

Lab 722 Con 310 LD 914 SNP 404,

and then add in the votes from the relevant bits of Pentlands:

Lab 1371 Con 2698 LD 1255 SNP 1176.

So the total votes cast in person in Westminster Edinburgh South at the 2007 elections were (dah-dah!):

Lab 8399 Con 6424 LD 9509 SNP 5898.

There is no way of knowing exactly how the postal votes split.

The above analysis is interesting as it shows that the Westmister seat is significatly better for the Tories than the Holyrood seat, and that Michael Ancram would almost certainly have held on here in the 1987 general election on the current Westminster bondaries (and 1992 as the pro Labour swing could have been down to the loss of Ancrams personal vote and the addition of Griffiths personal vote), a Labour victory in 1997 would have been still certain but by a far small margin than on the pre-2005 boundaries.

What is really interesting is that despite the stronger Tory position there is little difference between Lab and the Lib Dems in the Holy’ and West’ divisions!

Straw clutching times from the Tory cheerleaders once again.

So the Lib Dems win on Holyrood boundaries, the Lib Dems win on Westminster boundaries, Labour are second on both, the only difference is that the Tories crawl themselves up from fourth to third between the two.

There is no evidence that the Earl of Lothian would have held this seat on different boundaries - because I’m sure the Conservative Party at the time annoyed just as many people inside and outside the constituency - and Ancram had got complacent by then anyway.

I never said he would have held the seat for ever.

The addition of South Morningside and Fairmilehead and the loss of Prestonfield on boundaries which produced a Labour majority of under 2000, would have been likely to his benefit.

On the current boundaries, he would have held on in 1987 and 1992, but still lost anyway in 1997.

There was an opinion poll published in the Daily Mail illustating Scottish Westminster voting intensions which was follows;

SNP 41 (+23%)
Lab 25 (-15)
Con 19 (+3%)
Lib Dem 13 (-9%)

If this poll was reflected in this seat at the next election, this seat would end up being a photo finish between the Tories and the SNP (with Labour and the Lib Dem behind in 3rd and 4th place).

Galloglass
West Lancashire
And what was the Scottish sample size Peter?

July 6th, 2008 at 9:10 am

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Don’t know. It was a newspaper cutting sent to me by my Dad. I did not dismiss it or take it too seriously either.

2010 -

Liberal Democrat: 12500
Conservative: 12000
Labour: 11500
SNP: 6500
Other: 2000
Majority: 405 (0.9%)

2010 -

Liberal Democrat: 12500
Conservative: 12000
Labour: 11500
SNP: 6500
Other: 2000
Majority: 500