Edinburgh South
2005 Results:
Labour: 14188 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 13783 (32.3%)
Conservative: 10291 (24.1%)
SNP: 2635 (6.2%)
Other: 1801 (4.2%)
Majority: 405 (0.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6172 (16.6%)
Labour: 15671 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10172 (27.4%)
SNP: 3683 (9.9%)
Other: 1468 (3.9%)
Majority: 5499 (14.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9541 (21.3%)
Labour: 20993 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7911 (17.6%)
SNP: 5791 (12.9%)
Referendum: 504 (1.1%)
Other: 98 (0.2%)
Majority: 11452 (25.5%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Nigel Griffiths (Labour) born 1955, Glasgow. Educated at Hawick High School and Edinburgh university. Edinburgh councillor 1980-1987. First elected as MP for Edinburgh South in 1987. Deputy leader of the House of Commons 2005-2007 when he resigned over the issue of Trident (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Neil Hudson (Conservative) contested Newcastle North 2005
Fred Mackintosh (Liberal Democrat) born 1970. Educated at Dulwich College and Edinburgh University. Advocate. Edinburgh councillor 1999-2007. Contested Livingston 1992, Midlothian 2005.
Sandy Howat (SNP) Educated at Aberdeen and Glasgow universities. Financial consultant.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85796
Male: 47.2%
Female: 52.8%
Under 18: 19.9%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 9.8%
White: 94.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 2%
Christian: 54.3%
Muslim: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 39.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.3%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 12.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.1%
















176 Responses
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Will Patterson says the SNP “topped” the poll in a council ward.
But that was only because there was 2 Labour candidates.
Sorry but such new labour spin wont help the SNP in Edinburgh South.
The LibDems will probably win this seat with the SNP fighting the Tories for third place. That is just the way it is.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:16 pmThe number of votes cast IN PERSON at the Holyrood elections in 2007 for Edinburgh South were:
Lab 7750 Con 4036 LD 9168 SNP 5126.
To get the equivalent result for the Westminster Edinburgh South, you need to subtract the votes in the bit that is in Edinburgh East at Westminster elections:
Lab 722 Con 310 LD 914 SNP 404,
and then add in the votes from the relevant bits of Pentlands:
Lab 1371 Con 2698 LD 1255 SNP 1176.
So the total votes cast in person in Westminster Edinburgh South at the 2007 elections were (dah-dah!):
Lab 8399 Con 6424 LD 9509 SNP 5898.
There is no way of knowing exactly how the postal votes split.
June 29th, 2008 at 5:34 pmThe above analysis is interesting as it shows that the Westmister seat is significatly better for the Tories than the Holyrood seat, and that Michael Ancram would almost certainly have held on here in the 1987 general election on the current Westminster bondaries (and 1992 as the pro Labour swing could have been down to the loss of Ancrams personal vote and the addition of Griffiths personal vote), a Labour victory in 1997 would have been still certain but by a far small margin than on the pre-2005 boundaries.
What is really interesting is that despite the stronger Tory position there is little difference between Lab and the Lib Dems in the Holy’ and West’ divisions!
June 29th, 2008 at 11:38 pmStraw clutching times from the Tory cheerleaders once again.
So the Lib Dems win on Holyrood boundaries, the Lib Dems win on Westminster boundaries, Labour are second on both, the only difference is that the Tories crawl themselves up from fourth to third between the two.
There is no evidence that the Earl of Lothian would have held this seat on different boundaries - because I’m sure the Conservative Party at the time annoyed just as many people inside and outside the constituency - and Ancram had got complacent by then anyway.
July 6th, 2008 at 1:00 amI never said he would have held the seat for ever.
The addition of South Morningside and Fairmilehead and the loss of Prestonfield on boundaries which produced a Labour majority of under 2000, would have been likely to his benefit.
On the current boundaries, he would have held on in 1987 and 1992, but still lost anyway in 1997.
July 6th, 2008 at 1:46 amThere was an opinion poll published in the Daily Mail illustating Scottish Westminster voting intensions which was follows;
SNP 41 (+23%)
Lab 25 (-15)
Con 19 (+3%)
Lib Dem 13 (-9%)
If this poll was reflected in this seat at the next election, this seat would end up being a photo finish between the Tories and the SNP (with Labour and the Lib Dem behind in 3rd and 4th place).
July 6th, 2008 at 1:57 amWest Lancashire
And what was the Scottish sample size Peter?
July 6th, 2008 at 9:10 amTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
As if Dan isn’t a Lib Dem cheerleader.
Looking at the May 2007 results, it will be difficult for the Tories to break the Lab/LD battle, but given the almost three way position in 2005, and the likely contest across Britain at the next General Election, a Tory win from third in the capital city shouldn’t be ruled out.
I don’t believe the Daily Mail extrapolation, but would guess the standing of the parties in Scotland could remain quite like it was in May 2007 - although with the Tories somewhat better - at the next General Election.
I had originally thought that Labour would be bound to recover from May 2007, but with the SNP honeymoon the two effects could rather cancel out and produce a result quite like then.
The SNP’s chickens will come home to roost, however. They have some charismatic leadership but the bills will come in from their spending spree, and it’ll be interesting to see if politics here changes again.
July 6th, 2008 at 12:39 pmGalloglass
West Lancashire
And what was the Scottish sample size Peter?
July 6th, 2008 at 9:10 am
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Don’t know. It was a newspaper cutting sent to me by my Dad. I did not dismiss it or take it too seriously either.
July 6th, 2008 at 10:02 pm2010 -
Liberal Democrat: 12500
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:19 pmConservative: 12000
Labour: 11500
SNP: 6500
Other: 2000
Majority: 405 (0.9%)
2010 -
Liberal Democrat: 12500
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:19 pmConservative: 12000
Labour: 11500
SNP: 6500
Other: 2000
Majority: 500
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