Edinburgh North and Leith
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7079 (14.95%)
Labour: 17740 (37.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 16016 (33.82%)
SNP: 4568 (9.65%)
Green: 1062 (2.24%)
TUSC: 233 (0.49%)
Socialist Labour: 141 (0.3%)
Independent: 128 (0.27%)
Others: 389 (0.82%)
Majority: 1724 (3.64%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 14597 (34.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 12444 (29.2%)
Conservative: 7969 (18.7%)
SNP: 4344 (10.2%)
Other: 3286 (7.7%)
Majority: 2153 (5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 4626 (13.9%)
Labour: 15271 (45.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6454 (19.4%)
SNP: 5290 (15.9%)
Other: 1593 (4.8%)
Majority: 8817 (26.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7312 (17.9%)
Labour: 19209 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5335 (13%)
SNP: 8231 (20.1%)
Referendum: 441 (1.1%)
Other: 417 (1%)
Majority: 10978 (26.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Mark Lazarowicz(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Iain McGill (Conservative) Former postman and overseas aid worker, now director of an employment agency. Contested Midlothian 2005. Contested Cumbernauld and Kilsyth and Central Scotland region in 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.Mark Lazarowicz(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Kevin Lang (Liberal Democrat) Calum Cashley (SNP) Political researcher. Contested Dundee West 1999 Scottish elections.Kate Joester (Green) Willie Black (TUSC) David Jacobsen (Socialist Labour) John Hein (Liberal)Cameron MacIntyre (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89186
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 16.9%
Over 60: 18.3%
Born outside UK: 9.8%
White: 95.6%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 51%
Muslim: 1.5%
Graduates 16-74: 39.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.8%
Owner-Occupied: 66.1%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 8%, Housing Ass.: 6.6%)
Privately Rented: 17%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.6%
Actually I think I’ll revise my prediction here
Lab 14500
LD 7500
SNP 7000
Con 2500
8% Conservative vote here?? Are you sure?
’8% Conservative vote here?? Are you sure?’
No I’m not but the Westminster const is better for the tories than the revised scottish parl const.
I was actually surprised at how low the tory vote was and thought the amount of tact. voting for the LDs was pretty remarkable.
referring to the GE of course.
I think a sizeable part of the Lib Dem vote here is “anti Labour”. In the run up to the election, there was a major charm-offensive on the part of the LDs, aimed primarily at the softer part of the Tory vote. This partially paid off. On the flip side, the local Council has made some unpopular decisions on the education front (affecting some of the poorer areas of the seat), which caused a localised anti-Lib Dem/SNP backlash. Were it not for this factor (and possibly some frustrations in the Leith area over the tram works), I think the Lib Dems might have taken the seat.
Malcolm Chisholm’s personal popularity as MSP would seem to make this pretty safe for Labour. LDem support could slightly leach to SNP, but not enough to change the final result.
Edinburgh Central is where SNP could gain from Lab – although I think Lab will gain Edinburgh South from LDems
I’d kind of agree with that, I can see Labour narrowly taking Southern on 29/30%.
The bookies seem to suggest Labour will narrowly hold Central over the SNP.
Chisholm should hold here.
A battle for 2nd in Pentlands with McLetchie holding.
The SNP would have gained all 5 Westminster constituencies in Edinburgh (including this one). Edinburgh SW would have been a photofinish though.
Labour would have held around 10 of Scotlands Westminster constituencies – Glasgow NE, Glasgow SW and Glasgow East, Renfrewshire East, Dunbartonshire West, Dumfries & Galloway, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Motherwell & Wishaw, Coatbridge, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch West.
I assume that Labour would have won East Lothian (with the traditional Labour towns on the edge of Edinburgh that were twinned with North Midlothian – unless they voted SNP this time).
I’m pretty sure the SNP would have won on the Westminster boundaries in N & L last May.
They may not have won all 5 Edinburgh seats because the other variations in boundaries.
I assume that -
Edinburgh East (SNP Gain) – The Holyrood seat is much more affluent than the Holyrood versions, but this is likely to remain Labour in 2015.
Edinburgh South (Too Close to Call) – Labour could increase their margin to several thousand as tacticle Lib Dem votes revert to the SNP and Tories.
Edinburgh South West (Too Close to Call) – SNP will take reasonable second place in 2015.
Edinburgh West (SNP Gain) – Could be a close contest between Labour and the SNP in 2015.
I would say that the SNP’s best chance in Edinburgh in 2015 would be West, followed by North & Leith (though a long shot).
Had it not been for May 2011, Edinburgh West would have looked like a certain Labour Gain, now it looks like a close contest between Labour and the SNP.
Would Labour have won East Lothian? I was under the impression the SNP might have ‘won’ Musselburgh.
Probably agree with you that West is the most likely gain though for the SNP as that’s what it came up with on electoral calculus.
The boundaries will be changed though which could make Edinburgh East more working class if Liberton/Gilmerton is transferred and Edinburgh South a tad more middle class with Balerno etc included.
The addition of Mussleburgh to Midlothian North, while leaving the SNP to having to ‘Gain’ Edinburgh East from Labour again, perhaps helped secure the SNP that seat.
Interesting stuff. Does anyone know what the constituency seat totals would be for the whole of Scotland if the May 2011 elections was faught on Westminster boundaries?
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath might have been a toss up as well (perhaps barely Lab) but I assume the SNP would have taken Dumfermline.
I also think Inverclyde would have been narrowly SNP.
Assuming the SNP ‘won’ DC&T then roughly:
SNP 47 Lab 10 Con 1 LD 1
I wondered what the Paisley and Renfrewshire South result would have been.
If Edinburgh South were to lose Gilmerton/Liberton & gain Balerno, that would make it far more middle class, not just a little bit.
Interesting point about DCT being likely to have been won by the SNP. The SNP victory in Clydesdale, Midlothian South & Tweeddale, and good third in Dumfries (shire) would make this evident.
Assume that Labour would have won Dumfries & Galloway, but not by over 7000?
Yes although it would also have to take in Oxgangs/Firrhill, Moat/Chesser although those might be the only non middle class areas.
Surely Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East would’ve been SNP? The SNP majority in Cumbernauld and Kilsyth was nearly 3,500 and I don’t see how that could’ve been overturned by the addition of Kirkintilloch, which was also in an SNP seat.
I asume the one Lib Dem seat is Orkney and Shetland. But what’s the one tory seat?
Presumably Berwickshire, Roxburh & Selkirk
I’ve always wondered what the results and political make up of Scotland what have been if the devolution referendum had passed in 1979.
We’ll asume the first election would have been in 1981 and the Scottish assembly would have had 73 members elected for fixed four year terms using FPTP on the same consitiuency boundaries as Westminster seats, with seperate seats for Orkney and Shetland.
I’m guessing Labour would have formed a majoirty administration from 1981 till 2009 when the SNP would have took over. The official opposition would have been the tories from 81-93, the Lib Dems from 93-05, and the SNP from 05-09. But that’s only educated guesswork.
And I can only assume Thatchers relationship with the Scottish executive would have been just as hostile as the relationship she had with the GLC.
The Campaign for the Scottish Assembly in 1987/ 1988 proposed a FPTP Scottish Parliament of 144 members (2 seats for every Westminster constituency).
Don’t know whether this would be 2 members elected in every constituency or the constituencies being split in two.
Assuming the latter being applied in 1981, the Conservatives would still have won Glasgow Cathcart that year because Glasgow Castlemilk would have been partitioned as a safe Labour seat.
By contrast, Labour would have won Glasgow Partick (partitioned from Glasgow Hillhead).
The partition of Stirlingshire West would have been interesting – Stirlingshire SW would be a very safe Labour seat and Stirlingshire NW would be a Tory.
Dunbartonshire West would have gone Tory with Dumbarton being partitioned off.
Dundee Broughty Ferry would have become an SNP/ Tory contest as it was divided from East Central Dundee.
The partition of Glasgow Pollok would have created a Tory marginal in Glasgow Pollokshields.
Edinburgh Pentlands would have become a safe Labour seat of Edinburgh Sighthill and a safe Tory seat of Edinburgh Colington.
I assume that in 1985 there would have been boundary changes following the 1983 westminster review.
If you use the 1986 Regional Council elections as a basis, may of the Conservative FPTP seats would have been lost in the mid 1980′s.
In Glasgow for example, Labour would have won Glasgow Pollokshields, Glasgow Cathcart and the SDP Glasgow Kelvinside.
If the referendum had been accepted to be won in 1979, electoral history would have gone down a totally different track. The SNP probably wouldn’t have been in turmoil in the 80s as there wouldn’t have been a breakaway ’79 group, the Callaghan government wouldn’t have been brought down in a no confidence vote (though whether the outcome of the UK GE would have changed much is open to much pointless debate). There would either have been less animosity to the Thatcher government in Scotland as the Parliament would have lessened the ‘no mandate’ argument, or alternatively the assembly would have been seen as the frontline of defence against tory policies and would have forced Labour to be effective in assembly or face the possibility of the SNP taking control and independence passing in a referendum.
If the referendum had passed, Labour probably would have continued onto an election in October 1979 which the Conservatives would have won.
In the long term, it probably would have done the Scottish tories more good.
But I thought the origional Scotland Act 1978 proposed a Scottish Assembly with just 73 seats, using the same boundaries as Westminster seats and seperate seats for Orkney and Shetland.
“In the long term, it probably would have done the Scottish tories more good.”
Perhaps. But I think its now becomming clearer and clearer from a UK perspective that devolution is a really bad idea. Ironically, Labour supported Scottish devolution to kill Scottish nationalism. But if Scotland now goes independent in a couple of years (which I still believe strongly that it won’t by the way) it will be DIRECTLY the fault of the Labour party and the devolution they delivered.
On this, as on other constitutional reform, the lesson is that the left really ought to think their ideas through a bit more; and that doing nothing is ALWAYS better than introducing reform that might go wrong. The watch words for the future has surely got to be that ‘doing nothing is always an option’.
“using the same boundaries as Westminster seats and seperate seats for Orkney and Shetland”
Yes I think thats right. But whilst we’re on the subject, no doubt its been discussed before (and apologies if that is the case) but why exactly DO Orkney and Shetland have to have seperate seats? Is it suddenly impossible to represent them together after hundreds of years doing so? Surely if there is any anomoly that needs looking at in the scottish parliament constituencies it is this?
I reckon Donald Dewar knew what he was doing but unfortunately the problem was that Labour did not embrace devolution in Scotland soon enough leading to the rise of the SNP at Holyrood by default.
Having got the holyrood election a bit wrong (expecting a close run thing rather than a landslide) I now think the SNP will be in power to at least 2020.
Can’t see independence happening though, it is more likely Salmond goes for some extra powers fudge. If the SNP was serious about independence they would set up a non partisan convention on it, instead full blown independence would probably get hammered like the AV referendum.
Watch the Lab. maj. increase substantially at the next election.