Comments on: East Lothian

By: East of East Lothian

East of East Lothian — Fri, 06 May 2011 09:31:14 +0000

Would love to know how the various bits of the constituency voted …

By: East of East Lothian

East of East Lothian — Fri, 06 May 2011 09:30:20 +0000

It may not seem it but I reckon this is not that bad a result for the Tories. David Berry has a large personal vote from the NB / Gullane area from his time there as councillor and that’s where a large chunk of the Tory votes in the constituency come from.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 14:35:10 +0000

Joe, what was your source (and what were your criteria) for affluence? I’d be surprised if Stirling were that high: although the seat includes a number of wealthy areas, it also includes a good many very poor ones (Raploch and Borestone spring to mind).

Based on 2001 census statistics, available in the Rallings, Thrasher and Denver book of notional results for the new (in 2005) Scottish seats, Stirling came a) 8th for numbers of electors in the AB social category;
b) 18th for owner occupancy; and c) 23rd lowest for social renters among Scottish seats. These put Stirling well above average, but hardly right at the very top.

Dunbartonshire East was at the top for both a) and b), and bottom for c). Edinburgh South and Renfrewshire East were second and third for a); Renfrewshire East and Edinburgh West were second and third for b); Na h-Eileanan an Iar(!) and Edinburgh South were second and third bottom for c), with Renfrewshire East next.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 21:20:46 +0000

It might be,
but I read Dunbartonshire E is (2006) £ per head.
Also Stirling close.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 20:55:57 +0000

Yes…but that was within the context of Labour holding Ochil & South Perthshire by over 5000 (a seat that is much worse for Labour than Clackmannanshire & Dunblane), Dumfries & Galloway by over 7000 and Edinburgh SW by over 8000.

I think the 2010 general election set huge expectations
for the 2011 Holyrood elections, which are perhaps damaging Labour now.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 20:06:07 +0000

‘Believe me, for Labour to nearly gain the new Eastwood (and I believe they will come very close) will be a good result for Labour, particuarly in a night that they could suffer substaintail losses.’

Surely the outstanding result is Murphy holding the seat with such a large majority in the Westminster elections

Am i right in thinking that Eastwood (or whatevber it’s noew called) is the most affluent constituency in Scotland (per head?)

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 19:00:44 +0000

I think the bookies may be overestimating the margin that Murphy won within the new Eastwood Holyrood seat last year, and underestimating the level of Murphy’s personal vote.

I estimate he would have won by 2500 – 3000 on a large general election turnout (2000 – 2500 on a Holyrood turnout).

Generally the Tories poll a similar vote at Holyrood elections while large numbers of people who vote for Murphy vote SNP at Holyrood and Europe.

The Tories outpolled Labour on the Westminster boundaries as recent as the 2009 Euro elections, and would have been over 16% ahead of Labour on the new Holyrood boundaries.

Believe me, for Labour to nearly gain the new Eastwood (and I believe they will come very close) will be a good result for Labour, particuarly in a night that they could suffer substaintail losses.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 17:55:23 +0000

‘I think the Tories are being under-estimated in these polls – as they are in most Scottish polls, and in 2007.
I think it’s a difficult and very diverse country to poll.’

The tories won’t drop below 13% on the list (they got 13.9% in 2007) but I am wondering if some conservatives are waking up to the idea of anti labour tactical voting in constituencies like Clydesdale, Stirling etc.

Not sure if tories will vote tactically here though because the candidate is high profile.

Should we believe the bookies? All the SNP-Lab marginals now show the SNP as favourites but razor thin Labour gains in Edinburgh Southern and Eastwood are suggested.

The bookies also suggest the SNP are joint favourites in Edinburgh Western and that the LDs will drop to third in Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire which I’m a tad more sceptical about.

By: Tom Robinson

Tom Robinson — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 17:51:38 +0000

I think that Gray may just hold on here as the recipient of a sympathy vote-we are very kind people in Scotland and may be persuaded not to kick a man when he is down

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 17:26:12 +0000

I think the Tories are being under-estimated in these polls – as they are in most Scottish polls, and in 2007.
I think it’s a difficult and very diverse country to poll.

I did guess you were joking about Gray’s charisma.