East Lothian
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9661 (19.65%)
Labour: 21919 (44.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 8288 (16.86%)
SNP: 7883 (16.04%)
UKIP: 548 (1.11%)
Green: 862 (1.75%)
Majority: 12258 (24.94%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 18983 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11363 (24.8%)
Conservative: 7315 (16%)
SNP: 5995 (13.1%)
Other: 2120 (4.6%)
Majority: 7620 (16.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6577 (17.8%)
Labour: 17407 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6506 (17.6%)
SNP: 5381 (14.6%)
Other: 1000 (2.7%)
Majority: 10830 (29.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8660 (19.9%)
Labour: 22881 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4575 (10.5%)
SNP: 6825 (15.7%)
Referendum: 491 (1.1%)
Majority: 14221 (32.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Fiona O`Donnell (Labour)
Michael Veitch (Conservative) Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Political researcher and former sales executive for Cadbury. Contested Linlithgow and Falkirk East 2005.Fiona O`Donnell (Labour)
Stuart Ritchie (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Dunbar Grammar and Paisley University. PR advisor. 
Andrew Sharp (SNP) born 1955. Educated at Glasgow High School, Perth Academy and Edinburgh University. IT professional. Contested East Lothian and South of Scotland region in 2007 Scottish Parliament election.
James MacKenzie (Green) Educated at St Andrews University. PR director for the Scottish Green party.
Jonathan Lloyd (UKIP) Born 1971, Builth Wells. Educated at Gwernyfed High School and Aberystwyth University. Animal Health/Livestock Market Analyst 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90088
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 22.5%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 64.3%
Graduates 16-74: 20%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 64%
Social Housing: 27.5% (Council: 23.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.9%
According to the lastest poll YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday , Iain Gray could lose East Lothian.
Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-1), LAB 32%(-5), LDEM 8%(nc), SNP 45%(+5)
Holyrood regional: CON 12%(nc), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), SNP 39%(+4), Grn 7%(+1)
The poll would increase the number of SNP constituency MSP’s to 51 and reduce the number of Labour constituency MSP’s to 18. This would mean that there would be 4 more regional Labour MSP’s than constituency MSP’s.
The Tories would be reduced to Eastwood and Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire while the Lib Dems would be reduced to Orkney, NE Fife and Shetland.
The 18 constituencies that would remain loyal to Labour would be -
Carrick Cumnock & Doon Valley, Coatbridge & Chryston, Cowdenbeath, Dumfriesshire, Glasgow Anniesland, Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn, Glasgow Shettleston, Glasgow Pollok, Glasgow Provan, Greenock & Inverclyde, Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, Motherwell & Wishaw, Paisley, Renfrewshire North & West, Renfrewshire South, Rutherglen, Strathkelvin & Bearsden and Uddingston & Bellshill.
I assume that we can rely on Iain Gray turning things around by wiping the floor with Alex Salmond on the BBC’s First Ministers Debate on Sunday the 1st of May?
Certainly not the last sentence no,
but I doubt the SNP is more than 4 or 5% ahead in reality.
(My personal hunch, not anything more).
I was being a little bit sarcastic about Grays ‘charismatic’ performance next Sunday.
I would be surprised if the SNP lead was 12% (perhaps this is a little bit of Cleggmania) and the danger is the SNP could peak like the Lib Dems too early.
On the other hand, if Gray’s performance is dire, then Labour could fall below 30% of the popular vote, and we could see a number of constituencies that have been Labour since 1935 changing hands.
I think the Tories are being under-estimated in these polls – as they are in most Scottish polls, and in 2007.
I think it’s a difficult and very diverse country to poll.
I did guess you were joking about Gray’s charisma.
I think that Gray may just hold on here as the recipient of a sympathy vote-we are very kind people in Scotland and may be persuaded not to kick a man when he is down
‘I think the Tories are being under-estimated in these polls – as they are in most Scottish polls, and in 2007.
I think it’s a difficult and very diverse country to poll.’
The tories won’t drop below 13% on the list (they got 13.9% in 2007) but I am wondering if some conservatives are waking up to the idea of anti labour tactical voting in constituencies like Clydesdale, Stirling etc.
Not sure if tories will vote tactically here though because the candidate is high profile.
Should we believe the bookies? All the SNP-Lab marginals now show the SNP as favourites but razor thin Labour gains in Edinburgh Southern and Eastwood are suggested.
The bookies also suggest the SNP are joint favourites in Edinburgh Western and that the LDs will drop to third in Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire which I’m a tad more sceptical about.
I think the bookies may be overestimating the margin that Murphy won within the new Eastwood Holyrood seat last year, and underestimating the level of Murphy’s personal vote.
I estimate he would have won by 2500 – 3000 on a large general election turnout (2000 – 2500 on a Holyrood turnout).
Generally the Tories poll a similar vote at Holyrood elections while large numbers of people who vote for Murphy vote SNP at Holyrood and Europe.
The Tories outpolled Labour on the Westminster boundaries as recent as the 2009 Euro elections, and would have been over 16% ahead of Labour on the new Holyrood boundaries.
Believe me, for Labour to nearly gain the new Eastwood (and I believe they will come very close) will be a good result for Labour, particuarly in a night that they could suffer substaintail losses.
‘Believe me, for Labour to nearly gain the new Eastwood (and I believe they will come very close) will be a good result for Labour, particuarly in a night that they could suffer substaintail losses.’
Surely the outstanding result is Murphy holding the seat with such a large majority in the Westminster elections
Am i right in thinking that Eastwood (or whatevber it’s noew called) is the most affluent constituency in Scotland (per head?)
Yes…but that was within the context of Labour holding Ochil & South Perthshire by over 5000 (a seat that is much worse for Labour than Clackmannanshire & Dunblane), Dumfries & Galloway by over 7000 and Edinburgh SW by over 8000.
I think the 2010 general election set huge expectations
for the 2011 Holyrood elections, which are perhaps damaging Labour now.
It might be,
but I read Dunbartonshire E is (2006) £ per head.
Also Stirling close.
Joe, what was your source (and what were your criteria) for affluence? I’d be surprised if Stirling were that high: although the seat includes a number of wealthy areas, it also includes a good many very poor ones (Raploch and Borestone spring to mind).
Based on 2001 census statistics, available in the Rallings, Thrasher and Denver book of notional results for the new (in 2005) Scottish seats, Stirling came a) 8th for numbers of electors in the AB social category;
b) 18th for owner occupancy; and c) 23rd lowest for social renters among Scottish seats. These put Stirling well above average, but hardly right at the very top.
Dunbartonshire East was at the top for both a) and b), and bottom for c). Edinburgh South and Renfrewshire East were second and third for a); Renfrewshire East and Edinburgh West were second and third for b); Na h-Eileanan an Iar(!) and Edinburgh South were second and third bottom for c), with Renfrewshire East next.
It may not seem it but I reckon this is not that bad a result for the Tories. David Berry has a large personal vote from the NB / Gullane area from his time there as councillor and that’s where a large chunk of the Tory votes in the constituency come from.
Would love to know how the various bits of the constituency voted …