East Lothian
2005 Results:
Labour: 18983 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11363 (24.8%)
Conservative: 7315 (16%)
SNP: 5995 (13.1%)
Other: 2120 (4.6%)
Majority: 7620 (16.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6577 (17.8%)
Labour: 17407 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6506 (17.6%)
SNP: 5381 (14.6%)
Other: 1000 (2.7%)
Majority: 10830 (29.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8660 (19.9%)
Labour: 22881 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4575 (10.5%)
SNP: 6825 (15.7%)
Referendum: 491 (1.1%)
Majority: 14221 (32.7%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Anne Moffat (Labour) born 1958, Dunfermline. Educated at Woodmill High School and Dunfermline Further Education College. Former nurse and National President of UNISON. Ashford councillor 1994-2000. First elected as MP for East Lothian in 2001 as Anne Picking, returning to her maiden name after the 2005 election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Amy Rodger(Liberal Democrat) born 1977. Educated at Glasgow University. Director of ERS Scotland. Contested City of Glasgow region in 2003 Scottish elections. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 2001, Glasgow North 2005. 
Michael Veitch (Conservative) Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Political researcher and former sales executive for Cadbury. Contested Linlithgow and Falkirk East 2005.
Andrew Sharp (SNP) born 1955. Educated at Glasgow High School, Perth Academy and Edinburgh University. IT professional. Contested East Lothian and South of Scotland region in 2007 Scottish Parliament election.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90088
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 22.5%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 64.3%
Graduates 16-74: 20%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 64%
Social Housing: 27.5% (Council: 23.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.9%
52 Responses
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Latest opinion poll in Scotland
YouGov poll, commissioned by the SNP, conducted 6-8 August, sample 1,028.
Scottish Parliament constituency vote [change from May 2007 in brackets]:
SNP: 44% [+11]
Labour: 25% [-7]
Lib Dem: 14% [-2]
Con: 13% [-4]
Other: 4% [+2]
Applying these figures to the Weber Shandwick Scotland Votes model, the SNP would win 58 of Scotland’s 73 Holyrood first-past-the-post seats.
SNP - 58 constituency seats (plus 37)
Labour - 8 constituency seats (minus 29)
LibDems - 6 constituency seats (minus 5)
Tories - 1 constituency seat (minus 3)
This would see Iain Gray lose his seat to the SNP at a Holyrood election.
The SNP have an outstanding chance in East Lothian for the Westminster seat.
August 13th, 2008 at 7:12 amPaul MacLennan has supplied some interesting figures, but is there any survey evidence about how many voters would support the same party in Westminster and Holyrood elections?
My presumption is that in a UK election, the arguments for voting SNP are weaker and those for Labour stronger than in a Scottish Parliament election.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:20 amIslwyn
Gary J - exactly the same poll but Westminster intentions (quoted on Political Betting)
SNP: 36% [+18]
August 13th, 2008 at 4:06 pmLabour: 29% [-11]
Conservative: 18% [2]
Lib Dem: 13% [-10]
Other: 5%
Thanks Dewi
A 14% swing to the SNP would see the SNP win East Lothian
The swing above in the Westminster intentions is 14.5%.
There are also local issues to take into consideration.
East Lothian is the 2nd fastest growth area in Scotland and the traditional Labour stranglehold is gradually ebbing away with new residents moving in with no Labour affiliations.
Labour have few activists in East Lothian and many of the exisiting activists will refuse to campaign for Anne Moffat, after recently trying to deselect her.
The SNP can win this seat
August 13th, 2008 at 5:46 pmRuislip Northwood
Maybe they could, but still it is a big ask from fourth place. I think there could be alot of seats which see a big swing to the SNP but where they miss out because they are too far behind to start with , rather like in 1974 when few Labour seats in the central belt fell to the SNP, though many were close. This seat was one of the weakest SNP seats then but included Berwickshire and was a Tory/Labour marginal at that time. There does come a tipping point ofcourse where if the SNP can get over a certain threshold than many of these central belt seats would fall, but even in 2007 most did not. That poll if repeated probably does represent such a tipping point, but such a result is yet to materialise in reality
August 13th, 2008 at 6:23 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
I agree with Pete, although he has more detailed knowledge and has made a good point about the 1974 results - presumably the October election when they polled about 31%.
My thinking has been along the lines that people the SNP as a breath of fresh air compared to Labour, the Establishment party, but would still back off if it came to total Independence.
I think we’re looking at a 2010 General Election result quite like the May 2007 Scottish Parliament results - overall. But I still think Labour will hold this one.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:24 pmSNP polling this summer is showing a dramatic collapse in the Labour vote.
The Lib Dem vote is back to its traditional 13-15% with the Tories the same.
The SNP and Labour are neck and neck in this seat.
Labour have no activists and are openly demoralised with an MP half of the branches tried to de-select.
When the Westminster seat goes in East Lothian the Scottish Parliament seat will go.
The Council is also now led by the SNP after Labour lost it in May 2007.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:43 amPages: « 1 2 3 [4] Show All