East Lothian
2005 Results:
Labour: 18983 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11363 (24.8%)
Conservative: 7315 (16%)
SNP: 5995 (13.1%)
Other: 2120 (4.6%)
Majority: 7620 (16.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6577 (17.8%)
Labour: 17407 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6506 (17.6%)
SNP: 5381 (14.6%)
Other: 1000 (2.7%)
Majority: 10830 (29.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8660 (19.9%)
Labour: 22881 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4575 (10.5%)
SNP: 6825 (15.7%)
Referendum: 491 (1.1%)
Majority: 14221 (32.7%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Anne Moffat (Labour) born 1958, Dunfermline. Educated at Woodmill High School and Dunfermline Further Education College. Former nurse and National President of UNISON. Ashford councillor 1994-2000. First elected as MP for East Lothian in 2001 as Anne Picking, returning to her maiden name after the 2005 election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Amy Rodger(Liberal Democrat) born 1977. Educated at Glasgow University. Director of ERS Scotland. Contested City of Glasgow region in 2003 Scottish elections. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 2001, Glasgow North 2005. 
Michael Veitch (Conservative) Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Political researcher and former sales executive for Cadbury. Contested Linlithgow and Falkirk East 2005.
Andrew Sharp (SNP) born 1955. Educated at Glasgow High School, Perth Academy and Edinburgh University. IT professional. Contested East Lothian and South of Scotland region in 2007 Scottish Parliament election.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90088
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 22.5%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 64.3%
Graduates 16-74: 20%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 64%
Social Housing: 27.5% (Council: 23.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.9%
Tam, I am no fan of the Lib Dems, but it sounds strange that they have given up here totally - surely their resources aren’t so small that they can only focus on 2 seats!
Re Amy Rodger, I wonder if Glasgow North selected before here, and for whatever reason, Katy Gordon beat her to the nomination (assuming she contested it).
Matt - resources are very tight - remember that when we say “We rely on members’ donation, not Ashcroft or the Unions” we ain’t kidding about!
On the other hand, there are a couple of tricky holds for the Scottish LDs: Argyll, Dunfermline and whatever the Borders seat is called now - plus trying for 2 gains in Edinburgh, 1 each in Glasgow and Aberdeen. That’s just off the top of my head
If it became obvious for whatever reason that East Lothian wasn’t going to happen or that Amy Rodger was going off to do her own stuff then it would seem sensible not to throw good money after bad and channel it all into holding and gaining elsewhere.
Hi Tam
You state that a 14.2% swing would be required for the SNP to win the seat.
The Scottish Parliamentary election in 2007 showed a 12.3% swing from Labour to the SNP
Labour also have a very unpopular MP in Anne Moffatt, 3 of the local Labour branches tried to deselect her.
Many Labour activists will not campaign for her and there is still a long running rumour that there may be an independent Labour Candidate.
I stand by the prediction that the seat will be closely fought and there may be a surprise
An interesting pointer will be the constituency breakdown for the European elections
Paul, with respect, do you really think that is likely?
Joe
I have lived in the constituency all my life, campaigned for 20 years in the area and I am a local SNP Councillor.
East Lothian Council is now also an SNP-Lib Dem Council
The local Labour party are a shambles are are split half way between the pro and anti Anne Moffat camps
The Labour Party nationally in Scotland and the UK are in freefall.
Our polling is coming through very strongly- as I said the breakdown of votes in the Euro Elections will provide a very good pointer
Im not sure the Euro Elections result would provide a good pointer - I think we will see a low turnout, a very high vote for the likes of UKIP etc, and possibly the performance by Labour than they have maybe ever had - I think the SNP could win if there was an Ind Lab anti Moffatt candidate, but otherwise, I just cannot see an SNP win.
Euro Prediction in East Lothian- Sticking my neck out
SNP 27%
Labour 24%
Tory 22%
Lib Dem 12%
Greens 5%
UKIP 5%
BNP 2%
Christian 1%
Others 2%%
I though Amy Rodger had stood down here?
Amy Rodgers has stood down - Lib Dems in middle of selection process- Result due mid June I think
Actual Euro Vote
SNP 26%
Labour 21
Tory 20%
Lib 11%
Green 8%
UKIP 5%
BNP 2%
Others 7
9.6% Labour to SNP
Major breakthrough in East Lothhian for the SNP
Iain Gray must be a woried man today
Yes, Tories only 185 votes behind Labour in the Euro elections and 990 votes behind the SNP, a very encouraging result for them.
The Council area is the Westminster constituency. The Holyrood seat excludes the SNP/ Lab town of Mussleburgh which means that the Tories will have polled more votes than Labour and not much fewer than the SNP.
The new Holyrood seat excludes more of urban East Lothian, which suggests that there would perhaps be a Con maj on the Euro result.
The new rural East Lothian is perhaps more like the old ‘Berwickshire & East Lothian’ which was a classic Lab/ Con marginal, this never included many of the safe Labour towns around Edinburgh which had always been part of Midlothian.
Andy/Peter
The Tory vote was slightly down on 2004 Euro results
For the first time in East Lothian, the SNP won the biggest share of the vote.
On the back of the 28% share of the vote in 2007,this seat is here for the taking for the SNP.
Labour have a very unpopular MP in Anne Moffat, and I predict that the SNP will win this seat
I was very close in my predictions for the Euro result
This is also the seat of Iain Gray,Labour leader in Scotland- the scottish parliament seat is already a marginal with the SNP only requring a 3% swing
The Labour vote is in terminal decline in East Lothian and has dropped in each of the 7 elections