Comments on: Eastleigh

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:33:19 +0000

Sorry, just to clarify, It was general point and I meant fewer objections than expected nationally, not necessarily in any particular area. There will still probably be cases of intense local opposition to provisional proposals.

I don’t know what the submissions received look like for Hampshire.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:19:46 +0000

That’s interesting given that the BCE has contrived to split West End here although the notionals on the proposed boundaries are almost identical with the LDs only 400 odd votes down.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 12:38:13 +0000

I commented here last night at home and for some reason it was blocked.

Anyway, the gist of it was that even if Huhne was to be cleared by the court and no by-election was caused, boundary changes here ae likely to end his career anyway based upon the provisional proposals.

Interestingly, Political Betting are reporting that the commission has received fewer objections to the provisional proposals than they had expected, and that the review could be completed early.

That would imply to me that we may see fewer significant changes on revised and final recommendations than we have expected.

By: wolf

wolf — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 23:11:22 +0000

@Tim Jones

You can go to prison for a few naughty words now. If you upset a judge it’s six months . Still I bet Chris Huhne is more likely to see the inside of a prison cell than Harry Redknapp.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 22:29:46 +0000

I have to say, the odds seem to be heavily stacked against Mr Huhne at the moment. Even IF he is not convicted and there is no by-election, I’ve just realised that proposed boundary changes in this area would pretty much end his political career anyway if they went ahead.

Interestingly, Political Betting reporting that there have been fewer objections to the proposed boundary changes than the commission expected and that the process may well completed early. That would imply to me that we may see a lot of the original commission proposals largely unchanged when revised and final recommendations are published.

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:19:10 +0000

I have consolidated the totals of the past 3 local elections for this constituency (2008-2011) as follows:-
LibDem = 50.53%
Con = 29.63%
Lab = 12.11%
UKIP = 6.35%
Ind = 1.15%
Green = 0.24%
The LibDems are obviously very strong at local level and it remains to be seen how their performance would translate to a by-election. Their chances of holding on depends on what lasting damage the episode involving Chris Huhne has on them.

By: swanarcadian

swanarcadian — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 18:45:36 +0000

Today is the 18th anniversary of the death of Stephen Milligan.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:07:22 +0000

“Surely the only way a by-election can be caused is if Mr Huhne is sent to prison and the chances of that must be quite slim

Is not a hefty fine more likely”

If Huhne is convicted, it’s pretty much assured that he will go to jail for this offence.

The CPS would not have decided to prosecute a sitting cabinet minister, with all the political fallout that this causes, without being sure that the chances of securing a conviction based on the available evidence are significantly above 50%.

Adding this together you can’t escape the conclusion that a by-election is quite likely.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:17:38 +0000

If Mr Huhne were convicted (if) and if he were not imprisoned (if). Then I suspect he would bne a prime candidate for recall under the new system whatever that may be if and when it comes in.
So there would still likely be a by-election.

By: Hector

Hector — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:44:12 +0000

“Surely the only way a by-election can be caused is if Mr Huhne is sent to prison and the chances of that must be quite slim”

Chances are only slim in terms of him not necessarily getting convicted. Perverting the Course of Justice very often leads to a jail sentence.