Eastleigh
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21102 (39.33%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 24966 (46.53%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Democrat: 249 (0.46%)
Independent: 154 (0.29%)
Others: 93 (0.17%)
Majority: 3864 (7.2%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18282 (38.3%)
Conservative: 17752 (37.2%)
Labour: 10075 (21.1%)
Other: 1617 (3.4%)
Majority: 530 (1.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18648 (37.5%)
Labour: 10238 (20.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 19216 (38.6%)
UKIP: 1669 (3.4%)
Majority: 568 (1.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16302 (34.3%)
Labour: 10426 (21.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 19360 (40.7%)
UKIP: 849 (1.8%)
Green: 636 (1.3%)
Majority: 3058 (6.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18699 (33.7%)
Labour: 14883 (26.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19453 (35.1%)
Referendum: 2013 (3.6%)
Other: 446 (0.8%)
Majority: 754 (1.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Huhne(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Westminster school and Oxford University. Former city economist and journalist. Contested Reading East 1983, Oxford West and Abingdon 1987. MEP for South East England 1999-2005 and deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament. MP for Eastleigh since 2005. Lib Dem shadow chief secretary 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for the Environment 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow home secretary 2007-2010. Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2010. Somewhat audaciously Huhne stood for the Liberal Democrat leadership following Charles Kennedy`s resignation, despite having been an MP for only a few months, and came surprisingly close to victory. During Ming Campbell`s short leadership a Huhne candidacy when Campbell stood down was seen as inevitable, but he entered the 2007 contest playing catch up to the younger front runner Nick Clegg, who had declined to enter the contest in 2006. In the event Huhne again came closer than expected, losing by only 511 votes (more information at They work for you)
Maria Hutchings (Conservative) Mother of an autistic son who berated Tony Blair on a Channel 5 discussion programme during the 2005 election about the closure of special schools. 
Les Barraclough (Labour) Chris Huhne(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Westminster school and Oxford University. Former city economist and journalist. Contested Reading East 1983, Oxford West and Abingdon 1987. MEP for South East England 1999-2005 and deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament. MP for Eastleigh since 2005. Lib Dem shadow chief secretary 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for the Environment 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow home secretary since 2007. Somewhat audaciously Huhne stood for the Liberal Democrat leadership following Charles Kennedy`s resignation, despite having been an MP for only a few months, and came surprisingly close to victory. During Ming Campbell`s short leadership a Huhne candidacy when Campbell stood down was seen as inevitale, but he entered the 2007 contest playing catch up to the younger front runner Nick Clegg, who had declined to enter the contest in 2006. In the event Huhne again came closer than expected, losing by only 511 votes (more information at They work for you)
Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Contested South East 2009 European elections.Tony Pewsey (English Democrat) Keith Low (National Liberal)Dave Stone (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96098
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 18.5%
Born outside UK: 4.7%
White: 97.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 76.4%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.5%
Owner-Occupied: 79.2%
Social Housing: 13.6% (Council: 1.3%, Housing Ass.: 12.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
“Nick Robinson on BBC was saying how Huhne had harangued David Cameron in public over the voting referendum result.”
Huhne liked to give it out but couldn’t take it in return.
He spent the AV referendum campaigning repeatedly lying.
Something which reveals a little about the personality of the man considering what his present predicament is.
‘The best strategy for the Tories would be to make as much hay out of Chris Huhne’s misfortune as possible. “Huhne the criminal proves you can’t trust the Lib Dems” – something like that.’
Such negative tactics may backfire – especially as if there is a by-election the imprisoned Mr Huhne won’t be a candidate
Labour ran a negative campaign in Crewe & Nantwich and lost a seat which they had hung on to during their nadir years of 1883 and 1987
In the early 90s the Tory candidate in an Eastbourne by-election tried to capitalise on anti IRA sentimenmt after the sitting MP had been blown up by them. He too lost a seat which had been Conservative more or less throughout its existence
If the LIb Dems picked a good candidate they could hang on – especially if the Tories stuck with their candidate in 2010, who Mr Huhne reportedly ran rings round in a few pre-election debates
Tim you’re right that the Lib Dems might hold on, but I personally do not think they have a good chance of doing so.
Your post seems a bit confused. Both Eastbourne and Crewe are examples of seats lost when the incumbent party was nationally unpopular and low in the polls, as is the case with the Lib Dems today. Both examples are good supporting evidence that the Lib Dems could lose Eastleigh, negative campaign or not.
Actually Tim, I wouldn’t run a negative campaign on this issue atall, if it was up to me.
The trouble with you Lib Dems is you assume everyone would stoop as low as your party.
I do actually have some sympathy for Huhne’s position, although the law is the law.
There are far too many important policy issues to get across to the electorate to bother – so much to do.
I agree with most comments on here. Labour can not win this seat without some higher power helping them. While they do have a good base in parts of Eastleigh that will not be enough to tip them over the edge to win the seat. I also wouldn’t predict an easy gain for the Tories as I am sure that the Lib Dems will put up a tough fight. It would be fair to let the 2010 Tory candidate fight the seat again considering how well she done last GE.
A Tory gain but narrower than many may think.
“It would be fair to let the 2010 Tory candidate fight the seat again considering how well she done last GE”
A 3% swing to the Lib Dems compared to a national swing to the Tories. Brilliant.
The candidate should not be simply readopted because they’re seen as being ‘in line for it’. It must be the very best candidate chosen locally by the association completely freely and fairly.
As others have said, a Tory gain he is in no way inevitable. If Labour underperform, I expect the Lib Dems will remain in the race. Remember how easily they win local council elections in Eastleigh borough-and Chris Houhne was never on the ballot for that. They have obviously been doing something right locally to get a powerful as they have. We can’t just rely on the Huhne factor wiping that advantage away.
“They have obviously been doing something right locally to get a powerful as they have. We can’t just rely on the Huhne factor wiping that advantage away.”
Quite right.
Even IF Huhne has to resign his seat, it doesn’t mean that people will automatically turn against the Lib Dems locally. So far in this parliament we have seen by-elections happen where one MP has been kicked out for putting out illegal literature and another where the MP has gone to jail – neither had a negative affect on the new Labour candidate at all.
How much anger would a case like Huhne’s – dating back to before he was even an MP – really provoke?
The Lib Dems are likely to only suffer here in the same way that they might suffer in other places, so the only way I can see the Tories winning any potential contest would be for a number of Lib Dem voters to switch to Labour, but not quite enough to put them into 1st place, allowing the Tories to hold their vote and win.
I don’t see how disaffected Lib Dems would move over to the Tories. If they are happy with the coalition, then why not stick with the Lib Dems? If they are not happy with the coalition, then why move their vote to the other coalition party?
“A 3% swing to the Lib Dems compared to a national swing to the Tories. Brilliant”
A fair point Shaun. You are right that the best candidate should be chosen for the seat reagardless of whether they have stood before or not.
I wonder why we did not take this seat in 2010 considering how close we were between 1997-2001 and extremely close in 2005.
I think Labour losing half their vote share, going from over 20% to less than 10% gives a clue. the Conservative share and vote was up of course. Not by that much, but then it wasn;t up by all that much nationally. Maria Hutchings won significantly more votes when she lost in Eastleigh than the LDs did when they won in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Unfortunately it wasn’t more than the LDs won in 2010 and the main reason for that is the Labour vote going down from 15,000 in 1997 to 10,000 in 2001 and 2005 to 5,000 in 2010
Pete, I imagine many of these Labour votes went to Huhne over Hutchings which is why he hung on and increased his majority while the Tories yet again missed out.
I’d expect the LDs to remain in the race here yes,
and Labour to score about 20%.
It’s got to be the best chance of a Tory gain though since Angela Rumbold in 1982.
Surely the only way a by-election can be caused is if Mr Huhne is sent to prison and the chances of that must be quite slim
Is not a hefty fine more likely
Lord Archer went to prison buit I thought he was charged with perjury
Mr Huhne is making a big issue of protesting he is innocent. Surely it comes down to whether he was driving that car or not – something which will surely come out in court
“Surely the only way a by-election can be caused is if Mr Huhne is sent to prison and the chances of that must be quite slim”
Chances are only slim in terms of him not necessarily getting convicted. Perverting the Course of Justice very often leads to a jail sentence.
If Mr Huhne were convicted (if) and if he were not imprisoned (if). Then I suspect he would bne a prime candidate for recall under the new system whatever that may be if and when it comes in.
So there would still likely be a by-election.
“Surely the only way a by-election can be caused is if Mr Huhne is sent to prison and the chances of that must be quite slim
Is not a hefty fine more likely”
If Huhne is convicted, it’s pretty much assured that he will go to jail for this offence.
The CPS would not have decided to prosecute a sitting cabinet minister, with all the political fallout that this causes, without being sure that the chances of securing a conviction based on the available evidence are significantly above 50%.
Adding this together you can’t escape the conclusion that a by-election is quite likely.
Today is the 18th anniversary of the death of Stephen Milligan.
I have consolidated the totals of the past 3 local elections for this constituency (2008-2011) as follows:-
LibDem = 50.53%
Con = 29.63%
Lab = 12.11%
UKIP = 6.35%
Ind = 1.15%
Green = 0.24%
The LibDems are obviously very strong at local level and it remains to be seen how their performance would translate to a by-election. Their chances of holding on depends on what lasting damage the episode involving Chris Huhne has on them.
I have to say, the odds seem to be heavily stacked against Mr Huhne at the moment. Even IF he is not convicted and there is no by-election, I’ve just realised that proposed boundary changes in this area would pretty much end his political career anyway if they went ahead.
Interestingly, Political Betting reporting that there have been fewer objections to the proposed boundary changes than the commission expected and that the process may well completed early. That would imply to me that we may see a lot of the original commission proposals largely unchanged when revised and final recommendations are published.
@Tim Jones
You can go to prison for a few naughty words now. If you upset a judge it’s six months . Still I bet Chris Huhne is more likely to see the inside of a prison cell than Harry Redknapp.
I commented here last night at home and for some reason it was blocked.
Anyway, the gist of it was that even if Huhne was to be cleared by the court and no by-election was caused, boundary changes here ae likely to end his career anyway based upon the provisional proposals.
Interestingly, Political Betting are reporting that the commission has received fewer objections to the provisional proposals than they had expected, and that the review could be completed early.
That would imply to me that we may see fewer significant changes on revised and final recommendations than we have expected.
That’s interesting given that the BCE has contrived to split West End here although the notionals on the proposed boundaries are almost identical with the LDs only 400 odd votes down.
Sorry, just to clarify, It was general point and I meant fewer objections than expected nationally, not necessarily in any particular area. There will still probably be cases of intense local opposition to provisional proposals.
I don’t know what the submissions received look like for Hampshire.