The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Eastleigh

2010 Results:
Conservative: 21102 (39.33%)
Labour: 5153 (9.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 24966 (46.53%)
UKIP: 1933 (3.6%)
English Democrat: 249 (0.46%)
Independent: 154 (0.29%)
Others: 93 (0.17%)
Majority: 3864 (7.2%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18282 (38.3%)
Conservative: 17752 (37.2%)
Labour: 10075 (21.1%)
Other: 1617 (3.4%)
Majority: 530 (1.1%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18648 (37.5%)
Labour: 10238 (20.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 19216 (38.6%)
UKIP: 1669 (3.4%)
Majority: 568 (1.1%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 16302 (34.3%)
Labour: 10426 (21.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 19360 (40.7%)
UKIP: 849 (1.8%)
Green: 636 (1.3%)
Majority: 3058 (6.4%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 18699 (33.7%)
Labour: 14883 (26.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19453 (35.1%)
Referendum: 2013 (3.6%)
Other: 446 (0.8%)
Majority: 754 (1.4%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Chris Huhne(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Westminster school and Oxford University. Former city economist and journalist. Contested Reading East 1983, Oxford West and Abingdon 1987. MEP for South East England 1999-2005 and deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament. MP for Eastleigh since 2005. Lib Dem shadow chief secretary 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for the Environment 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow home secretary 2007-2010. Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2010. Somewhat audaciously Huhne stood for the Liberal Democrat leadership following Charles Kennedy`s resignation, despite having been an MP for only a few months, and came surprisingly close to victory. During Ming Campbell`s short leadership a Huhne candidacy when Campbell stood down was seen as inevitable, but he entered the 2007 contest playing catch up to the younger front runner Nick Clegg, who had declined to enter the contest in 2006. In the event Huhne again came closer than expected, losing by only 511 votes (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitMaria Hutchings (Conservative) Mother of an autistic son who berated Tony Blair on a Channel 5 discussion programme during the 2005 election about the closure of special schools.
portraitLes Barraclough (Labour)
portraitChris Huhne(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Westminster school and Oxford University. Former city economist and journalist. Contested Reading East 1983, Oxford West and Abingdon 1987. MEP for South East England 1999-2005 and deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament. MP for Eastleigh since 2005. Lib Dem shadow chief secretary 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for the Environment 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow home secretary since 2007. Somewhat audaciously Huhne stood for the Liberal Democrat leadership following Charles Kennedy`s resignation, despite having been an MP for only a few months, and came surprisingly close to victory. During Ming Campbell`s short leadership a Huhne candidacy when Campbell stood down was seen as inevitale, but he entered the 2007 contest playing catch up to the younger front runner Nick Clegg, who had declined to enter the contest in 2006. In the event Huhne again came closer than expected, losing by only 511 votes (more information at They work for you)
portraitRay Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Contested South East 2009 European elections.
portraitTony Pewsey (English Democrat)
portraitKeith Low (National Liberal)
portraitDave Stone (Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 96098
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 18.5%
Born outside UK: 4.7%
White: 97.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 76.4%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.5%
Owner-Occupied: 79.2%
Social Housing: 13.6% (Council: 1.3%, Housing Ass.: 12.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

1,461 Responses to “Eastleigh”

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  1. Congrats to Pete. Mine wasn’t far off although of course I got the winner wrong.

  2. “A reminder of my prediction at the outset:
    Farage UKIP 10933 27.8%
    Hutchings Con 10102 25.7%
    McGuinness LD 9966 25.3%
    McCarthy-Fry Lab 8153 20.7%
    Bennett Grn 93 0.2%
    Griffin BNP 91 0.2%

    Apart from the various candidate names, it turns out is likely to be out most in terms of my overestimation of Labour rather than UKIP support. Certainly the LD vote will be higher and they will probably win, largely thanks to the additional 7 or 8% of Labour voters. But it seems likely that the combined UKIP and Tory vote will be at or very close to 50% with the LDs winning with around a third of the vote. This split in the Euroesceptic and/or right wing vote is most unfortunate and at the next by-election the Tories should stand aside in favour of UKIP, or we are left with the inevitable conclusion that if you vote Tory, you get a Lib Dem”

    Another prediction I got right:
    UKIP leader Nigel Farage said: “If the Conservatives hadn’t split our vote we would have won.”

  3. I am very very upset about the Lib Dem win. A fantastic result for them and by extension a truely terrible result for the other main parties-and British politics too. Mike Thornton seemed to be the sub-standard candidate but still won actually rather easily, showing that those who have written off the Lib Dems in England at least are going to be dissapointed.
    For myself, I always thought the Lib Dems would retain 30-40 seats at the next general election, and I haven’t seen anything to change that predicition here.
    The one crumb of comfort really is that Prof. John Curtis was saying last night that a Lib Dem polling of around 33% would not show the party doing any better than the national opinion polls even in one of their strongest seats. In the end they ended up on almost exactly 33%.

    Delighted that UKIP came second really. If they or the Conservatives could have topped it by winning the seat, that would have been the only thing to make it perfect, for me.
    It is striking that just under 50% of voters in this constituency have actually voted FOR a UKIP-like candidate in this by-election, be that Diane Jmaes or Maria Hutchings. That is a poll rating that ‘David Cameron’s Conservative Party’ could only dream of in a seat like this. This is going to need some quick explaining from Cameron apologists though. The argument that right of centre agenda could not win an election appears to have been completely blown out of the water by the by-election. So has the view that the Conservatives must adopt a Cameronite ‘modernising’ agenda to win.

    Very very sorry for Maria Hutchings. I suspect her political career was ended last night-particularly now that she has been outed as being against much of the Cameronite agenda. Cameron holds grudges, he does not forgive those that cross him.
    But if they weren’t going to win the seat, I’m glad the Conservatives came third behind UKIP. I hope it sends a shockwave through the party that brings them back to reality. David Cameron has now got to be booted out as leader, and the sooner the better. If that is the outcome, then defeat will have been well worth it. It was a truely disasterous result for David Cameron.

    The one candidate whose career DESERVED to be ended last night was John O’Farrell. He put in a truely dire performance that should be deeply humiliating for the Labour Party. Not to win the seat would be entirely expected. Not to come second would have been reasonable. Not to increase the vote more than UKIP would have been a little concerning. But to almost preside over a fall in the Labour vote from the 2010 election DEFEAT shows a scale of rejection that I don’t think any of us had ever expected. If this is a test run for Ed Miliband’s “one nation” strategy, then bring on the election.
    It will also be the second time that O’Farrell’s candidature has turned off even Labour inclined voters. He presided over a debacle at Maidenhead-but I suspect he rather enjoyed that to see Theresa May in trouble with Labour voters voting tactically. But this will be much more serious for him and for the Labour party. They should have been on a minimum of 20% to be able to show they are on course to win a general election. And they couldn’t even manage 10%!

    This by-election has long-reaching consequences for all the parties. I’m devastated that the Lib Dems won. They certainly didn’t deserve to, but it seems if you were going to choose a seat the Lib Dems could win in any circumstances, Eastleigh might well have been it.

  4. In case anyone is wondering why I haven’t commented on the new 2015 site, it seems Anthony is up to his old petty tricks again and has me on automatic blocking. The comment I have posted above may appear on that new site, if he sees fit to allow it.

  5. “It is striking that just under 50% of voters in this constituency have actually voted FOR a UKIP-like candidate in this by-election, be that Diane Jmaes or Maria Hutchings.”

    Just a correction – the combined UKIP and Conservative vote was of course well over 50% – at 53% higher than the Conservatives have ever achieved in this seat with the exceptions of 1979 (when the boundaries were more favourable) and 1959 (when it was a two horse race). The LD winning share of 32% is in fact very similar to the kind of share they won in 1983 and 1987 when they were of course 20% away from actually winning. IN those days of course conservative inclined voters knew who to vote for – there was only one conservative party. There is only one true conservative party now too, but voters are confused, because it isn’t the one that calls itself the Conservative party

  6. I believe I predicted (at another place) a LibDem majority of 1818.

    A nice little betting profit.
    The Cameroons humiliated.
    The City cultists having a whinefest.

    How sweet the morning is.

    What Eastleigh shows is that the Cameron Project is dead.

    The supporters of economically right, socially left movemement don’t extend beyond those Notting Hill dinner parties where it was created.

    Populism of various varieties wins elections.

    Sometimes Conservative populism.
    Sometimes Labour populism.

    Being ‘progressive’ never does.

    And Cameron can’t do populism – his attempts result in photostunt disasters and hand picked candidates like Hutchings.

    The Conservatives have to accept that they are going to lose in 2015 and should now start planning for 2020.

    The need to get ahead of the game politically and electorally as they failed to do in 2006-8.

    For this they need strategists willing to study the demographic and economic trends and who do not preen themselves on their supposed ‘brilliance’ as Osborne has.

  7. The by-election coverage mentioned that Ukip had done very well in central Eastleigh. This correlates with what I saw on the ground.

    As a Lib Dem supporter I was (correctly) nervous about this area. This is the poorest part of Eastleigh and the one traditional labour area. I suspect that many people in this ward previously vote LD to keep the Tories out and are now angry LDs are proping up the Tories in government. These previously tactical LDs voters have turned to Ukip.

    Some Ukip supporters are natural Tories voters amny of whom having made their protest vote will returns at the General Election. But most of these central Eastleigh Ukip working class voters dislike the Tories and would never support. By losing their tactical support the LDs hold on Eastleigh has been weakened. Although the Tories came third last night it is still possible even likely they could win Eastleigh in the next general election especially if the LDs do not regain their previous working class support.

  8. Thats a very interesting point Glen. I have just been playing aroundd with figures based on local election results and it did appear to me that UKIP would have done best in the Eastleigh/Bishopstoke end of the seat with the LDs winning out in areas like Hedge End and West End and points south. It strikes me that this would have been the reverse of recent general election patterns where the latter area probably gave the Tories a small lead with the LDs winning a solid lead in Easteigh town thanks to tactical Labour votes

  9. Shaun – v true and Prof Curtice spoke a lot of sense, contrary to Grant Shapps inventing facts! Btw, 54% voted Tory/UKIP, 56% if you add the Ind anti gay marriage candidate.

  10. “UKIP would have done best in the Eastleigh/Bishopstoke end of the seat with the LDs winning out in areas like Hedge End and West End and points south. It strikes me that this would have been the reverse of recent general election patterns where the latter area probably gave the Tories a small lead with the LDs winning a solid lead in Easteigh town thanks to tactical Labour votes”

    Pete, yes a reverse of recent general election patterns is preisely what I have been thinking. The Lib Dems will really have to attack the Tories (and the bankers) to win back Eastleigh town,

  11. West End is the sort of area where the Tories ought to poll the most votes as a matter of course. I don’t know how they managed to get themselves in a position over the last 20 years where the LDs are seemingly able to outpoll them quite easily.

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