East Hampshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 29137 (56.78%)
Labour: 4043 (7.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 15640 (30.48%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.88%)
English Democrat: 710 (1.38%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
Majority: 13497 (26.3%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22993 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 15798 (32.3%)
Labour: 8803 (18%)
Other: 1352 (2.8%)
Majority: 7195 (14.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 24273 (45.7%)
Labour: 8519 (16%)
Liberal Democrat: 18764 (35.3%)
UKIP: 1583 (3%)
Majority: 5509 (10.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23950 (47.6%)
Labour: 9866 (19.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15060 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1413 (2.8%)
Majority: 8890 (17.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 27927 (48%)
Labour: 9945 (17.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16337 (28.1%)
Referendum: 2757 (4.7%)
Other: 1162 (2%)
Majority: 11590 (19.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Damian Hinds (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former Chairman of the Bow Group. Contested Stretford and Urmston in 2005.
Damian Hinds (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former Chairman of the Bow Group. Contested Stretford and Urmston in 2005.
Jane Edbrooke (Labour) Educated at Robert May`s School the LSE. Political officer for teh Labour group on Waltham Forest council.
Adam Carew (Liberal Democrat) Lecturer. Hampshire county councillor since 2005. East Hampshire district councillor since 2003. Contested Hampshire North East 2005.
Hugh McGuinness (UKIP) Matt Williams (English Democrat) Don Jerrard (Justice and Anti-Corruption)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89795
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 21%
Born outside UK: 6.9%
White: 98.3%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 76.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 24.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 12.5% (Council: 1.2%, Housing Ass.: 11.3%)
Privately Rented: 7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.1%
There is the potential here for a Solihull style result, if the Labour vote switches en-masse to the Lib Dems. The Tories musn’t be complacent about this seat, which gave them their 2nd highest majority in the country in 1992: 29,165 votes.
Absolutely agree with Andy this time. East Hampshire should certainly not be considered a safe bet by whoever gets the selection. Conservative Home has published a list of about 19 of the 23 Tory candidates being interviewed for this nomination-but James Brokenshire is amazingly not on the list! Perhaps he is one of the 4 candidates whose names have not been divulged to Conservative Home.
I would be amazed if Zac Goldsmith doesn’t end up being adopted here, having such similar views to Cameron.
Andy, prepare to be amazed. Conservative Home is reporting today that Zac Goldsmith dropped out on the day he was to be interviewed so that he could contest Richmond Park.
Looks like Zac’s just lost himself a seat in parliament, since I think Susan Kramer should just be able to hold onto her seat.
Damian Hinds selected as Conservative candidate here.
The Conservatives shouldn’t be complacent, re the Solihull result. This seat includes the mysterious village of Liphook,
which is on the corner of Surrey, W Sussex and in Hampshire.
But provided they are aware of that and deal with it, and a likely swing anyway, this should turn in a decent majority.
As for Richmond Park – I live on the border of
Richmond and Twickenham, and explain in that thread why I’m pretty certain (without totally assuming what the electorate will decide in 2009/10) that it will be a Tory gain.
I think Richmond Park is a good bet but surely not as safe a bet as this one so I think Goldsmith was foolish to forego this seat in favour of that one.
Why is this seat lise alphabetically as East Hampshire while Hampshire NW is listed the other way around? Surely this should Hampshire East ?
Richmond Park is my area.
The LDs are s_____ bricks…it’s obvious.
Surely however confident you are Joe, Richmond Park is a marginal seat whereas this one is safely Conservative. I guess Susan Kramer has earned some incumbency vote and she’s a far more impressive figure than the truly appalling Jenny Tonge
The fact that it has remained a tightly fought marginal tells you something.
I agree it’s not as safe as a seat which is already Tory like this one.
I hope Zac has the confidence in the seat I have.
David Davis came to the area last week, and it was three times over-subscribed.
I note that you live on the border between Richmmond and Twickenham Joe. Since the border is the River Thames do you live on a houseboat? ..or Eel pie island perhaps..
I live on another nearby island – a bit further down. There are some wooden houses on it.
My constituency is Twickenham, but I used to live “on the other side” and am involved in both seats, particularly as RP is a top target but Twick needs more work.
sorry Pete, I know this is an East Hampshire thread, but I live in Richmond Park, have met the lady several times, and fail to see anything impressive about Susan Kramer.
But I’d be wary being too confident about Richmond Park too, from a Tory point of view.
I remember her Mayoral campaign and she didnt seem too bad. I did phrase it as her being .more impressive than Jenny Tonge’, which isnt really saying all that much – just that as far as I know she doesnt justify Palestinian terrorism or come out with inane comments about bombing Afghanistan with food
Lib Dem PPC is Adam Carew, national chair of Green Liberal Democrats, and sitting county and district councillor.
The boundary changes here (losing the suburban, semi urban areas to the South of buster hill and gaining rural areas from NW Hants) will contribute to a much increased Tory majority.
Mr Carew was much in evidence in the Lib-Dem campaign here in Mays locals. The Tories increased their majority on the District Council comfortably, taking seats of the Lib-Dems. Interestingly two of the Tory gains on the District Council came from the new Meon Valley seat. The 2,000 Tory majority should be at least double that. Hampshire going very blue next time with the exception of the two Labour Southampton seats.
Very safe Conservative seat and I’m glad the local association has picked a candidate who at least seems from the same wing of the party as Michael Mates (being chairman of the Bow Group etc)
for those of us that don’t follow internal Tory politics perhaps you could enlighten us as to the nature of the Bow Group?
the Bow group is not an exclusively left wing group as Tim implies – it is not the Tory Reform group. Members have included Geoffrey Howe (before he turned) and Peter Lilley
I’ve always wondered what is the purpose of the Bow Group. Anybody enlighten me?
They’re a think tank basically. They aren’t an organised faction like the Solidarity or Campaign groups in the Labour party. Such groups have never really existed to the same extent in the Tories although we do have more recent groupings like ‘Centre forward’ which amounted to nothing and the Cornerstone group which seeks to maintain a Thatcherite agenda. The Bow group is not really that kind of thing
I personally thought the Cornerstone Group was more of a socially conservative traditionalist political faction within the British Conservative Party consisting of Eurosceptics, traditionalist MPs and so-called ‘Christians’
Its name stems from its support for three British social institutions – the Church of England, the unitary British state, and the family
It’s the No Turning Back Group that seeks to maintain a Thatcherite agenda
Both are profoundly right-wing groups and between them contain about half of today’s Tory MPs
The Bow Group is not like the Tory Reform Group being open to all Conservatives – a non-partisan think-tank capable of airing ideas from both the ‘one-nation’ and libertarian sides of the Conservative Party.
In February 2005 it published a report by former government minister, Peter Lilley, strongly opposing Labour Government plans to introduce identity cards into the UK.
As Peter says it is bnot anh exclusively left wing group within the party – Norman Lamont weas a member – although for the klast 10 years or so it is more identified with moderate wing of the party
I don’t like parties within parties much, apart from specialist groups, which is entirely different.
I think these clubs are divisive, and do damage.
I am a member of the Centre for Policy Studies which is officially an independent organisation and a think tank, and that is fine.
The Tory majority in East Hampshire should increase several points next time, despite Lib Dem inroads. Boundary changes make the seat somewhat more secure anyway.
Would you really describe the Centre fpr Policy Studies as an independent think tank Joe?
My understanding was that it was responsible for Conservative ecomomic policy under Thatcher – ie: American-style in your-face laissez faire capitalism
In fact I understood that in the late 1970s the Centre for Policy Studies played more of a roll in formulating Conservative policy than the Conservative Research Department itself
Neither the Tory candidate or the Labour candidate are local. They do not know our area and they are not very well known. Adam Carew the Lib Dem candidate was brought up here and unlike the others knows the area very well. He is well liked and excellent on social and environmental issues. Whats more he has a reputation for getting things done and fighting hard for local people here in East Hampshire.
So before the Tories get too comfortable
There were just 5500 votes between the Lib Dems and Mr Mates at the last election and with a charasmastic new Lib Dem leader – Nick Clegg and Labour washed up nationally, Adam looks set to give the Tories a real run for their money.
He certainly has my vote.
John
ps. Bow Group chairers have included right wingers such as Peter Lilly and Geoffrey Howe and were behind many of the plans to sell off public services eg rail, water etc … under the last Tory government.
Sleep well.
That was a party political broadcast on behalf of the Liberal Democrat Party. It will be repeated on BBC2 at 10.30pm.
Shaun –
John – welcome to UKPollingReport, always good to have local insight into seats. As a new voice though, can I point you to the comments policy (linked to in the grey box below the comments form) specifically that the point of the comments here are for us all to discuss electoral politics on neutral ground without attacking each others parties, and certainly “not to criticise rival candidates, nor to harp on about how your wonderful your candidate is.”
“Adam Carew the Lib Dem candidate was brought up here and unlike the others knows the area very well.”
He mustn’t know the area that well, otherwise he’d have joined the tory party for it is they who will win here.
Surely Adam Carew is free to support whoever he wants.
So with Michael “Eyebrows” Mates standing down do the Lib Dems have a chance. I hear not but I am intererested what ppl here think.
Shouldn’t have thought so. The gap is a substantial one & some of the better LD areas have now been transferred to Meon Valley. Most LD activists will be working there or in Winchester and I’d expect a comfortable Conservative victory here.
It was a pretty poor result for the Tories in 2005 – for them to only win by 10% a seat which (albeit with different boundaries) gave them their second biggest numerical majority in 1992 of about 29,000 votes and a percentage margin of nearly 40%.
Very different boundaries but nevertheless it was a poor performance by Michael Mates who had represented most of the area for over 30 years.
The Tories did well here in June, with about 58% of the vote according to figures provided by Pete on another website (although UKIP doesn’t appear to have contested seats here which probably helped).
Nevertheless, factoring in the notionally increased majority on the new boundaries, I think Damian Hinds should end up with a majority quite comfortably in five figures, with a share of up to 55%.
I think the Lib Dems will tread water here, staying at around 30%, and Labour will fall back to about 10%.
I agree with John D – I know the area and that’s basically what will happen. It’s a shame because Adam Carew seems to me like he’d make a very good MP but there isn’t enough LD support among activists and young people to make it happen.
Michael Mates has had large personal vote and is well respected locally as having been a good constituency MP. So, the Tories should not be taking the seat for granted – and it appears that they haven’t. In my part of the constituency, the Tories have started delivering 4 colour fliers in the last year unlike any elections previously and the LibDems do not appear to have been following suit. I would therefore be surprised if Damian Hinds does not win – but John D may be being a little optimistic.
Which seats have included Headley?
Cons Hold= 10,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 12 300
Con maj 10,000
I’m newly in this one from NE Hampshire, where Arbuthnot (he of the tax-payer cleaned swimming pool) seems to be persisting. I thought he was standing down.
So at first sight I feel encouraged because it’s less of a Tory stranglehold than NE Hants was. But I see the point of LD areas transferring to Meon Valley and Winchester.
That presumably benefits LD’s overall by consolidating their vote into more winnable seats,but may mean this seat is not winnable even on current poll surge.
Con 7000 (about the same as last time)
CON HOLD
I shock myself with the fact that my prediction was close to what actually happened!!!
I can assure all of you that that was a fluke.
I assume the Lib Dems in this region won’t focus too much attention on this seat in the next few months and years.
I presume they’ll concentrate on making sure Chris Huhne continues to hold Eastleigh, making sure they hold Portsmouth South (esp if Mike Hancock retires), and trying to regain Winchester and Romsey… and possibly Meon Valley, New Forest East and the Isle of Wight will get more attention than this seat?
Regardless, I think Damian Hinds can sleep fairly soundly in his bed.