East Hampshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 29137 (56.78%)
Labour: 4043 (7.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 15640 (30.48%)
UKIP: 1477 (2.88%)
English Democrat: 710 (1.38%)
Others: 310 (0.6%)
Majority: 13497 (26.3%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22993 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 15798 (32.3%)
Labour: 8803 (18%)
Other: 1352 (2.8%)
Majority: 7195 (14.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 24273 (45.7%)
Labour: 8519 (16%)
Liberal Democrat: 18764 (35.3%)
UKIP: 1583 (3%)
Majority: 5509 (10.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23950 (47.6%)
Labour: 9866 (19.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15060 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1413 (2.8%)
Majority: 8890 (17.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 27927 (48%)
Labour: 9945 (17.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16337 (28.1%)
Referendum: 2757 (4.7%)
Other: 1162 (2%)
Majority: 11590 (19.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Damian Hinds (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former Chairman of the Bow Group. Contested Stretford and Urmston in 2005.
Damian Hinds (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former Chairman of the Bow Group. Contested Stretford and Urmston in 2005.
Jane Edbrooke (Labour) Educated at Robert May`s School the LSE. Political officer for teh Labour group on Waltham Forest council.
Adam Carew (Liberal Democrat) Lecturer. Hampshire county councillor since 2005. East Hampshire district councillor since 2003. Contested Hampshire North East 2005.
Hugh McGuinness (UKIP) Matt Williams (English Democrat) Don Jerrard (Justice and Anti-Corruption)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89795
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 21%
Born outside UK: 6.9%
White: 98.3%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 76.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 24.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.9%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 12.5% (Council: 1.2%, Housing Ass.: 11.3%)
Privately Rented: 7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.1%
So with Michael “Eyebrows” Mates standing down do the Lib Dems have a chance. I hear not but I am intererested what ppl here think.
Shouldn’t have thought so. The gap is a substantial one & some of the better LD areas have now been transferred to Meon Valley. Most LD activists will be working there or in Winchester and I’d expect a comfortable Conservative victory here.
It was a pretty poor result for the Tories in 2005 – for them to only win by 10% a seat which (albeit with different boundaries) gave them their second biggest numerical majority in 1992 of about 29,000 votes and a percentage margin of nearly 40%.
Very different boundaries but nevertheless it was a poor performance by Michael Mates who had represented most of the area for over 30 years.
The Tories did well here in June, with about 58% of the vote according to figures provided by Pete on another website (although UKIP doesn’t appear to have contested seats here which probably helped).
Nevertheless, factoring in the notionally increased majority on the new boundaries, I think Damian Hinds should end up with a majority quite comfortably in five figures, with a share of up to 55%.
I think the Lib Dems will tread water here, staying at around 30%, and Labour will fall back to about 10%.
I agree with John D – I know the area and that’s basically what will happen. It’s a shame because Adam Carew seems to me like he’d make a very good MP but there isn’t enough LD support among activists and young people to make it happen.
Michael Mates has had large personal vote and is well respected locally as having been a good constituency MP. So, the Tories should not be taking the seat for granted – and it appears that they haven’t. In my part of the constituency, the Tories have started delivering 4 colour fliers in the last year unlike any elections previously and the LibDems do not appear to have been following suit. I would therefore be surprised if Damian Hinds does not win – but John D may be being a little optimistic.
Which seats have included Headley?
Cons Hold= 10,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 12 300
Con maj 10,000
I’m newly in this one from NE Hampshire, where Arbuthnot (he of the tax-payer cleaned swimming pool) seems to be persisting. I thought he was standing down.
So at first sight I feel encouraged because it’s less of a Tory stranglehold than NE Hants was. But I see the point of LD areas transferring to Meon Valley and Winchester.
That presumably benefits LD’s overall by consolidating their vote into more winnable seats,but may mean this seat is not winnable even on current poll surge.
Con 7000 (about the same as last time)
CON HOLD
I shock myself with the fact that my prediction was close to what actually happened!!!
I can assure all of you that that was a fluke.
I assume the Lib Dems in this region won’t focus too much attention on this seat in the next few months and years.
I presume they’ll concentrate on making sure Chris Huhne continues to hold Eastleigh, making sure they hold Portsmouth South (esp if Mike Hancock retires), and trying to regain Winchester and Romsey… and possibly Meon Valley, New Forest East and the Isle of Wight will get more attention than this seat?
Regardless, I think Damian Hinds can sleep fairly soundly in his bed.