East Ham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7645 (15.18%)
Labour: 35471 (70.42%)
Liberal Democrat: 5849 (11.61%)
Green: 586 (1.16%)
English Democrat: 822 (1.63%)
Majority: 27826 (55.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 22257 (53.8%)
Respect: 8346 (20.2%)
Conservative: 5551 (13.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4538 (11%)
Other: 702 (1.7%)
Majority: 13911 (33.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 5196 (13.1%)
Labour: 21326 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4296 (10.9%)
Other: 8751 (22.1%)
Majority: 13155 (33.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6209 (16.7%)
Labour: 27241 (73.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 2600 (7%)
UKIP: 444 (1.2%)
Other: 783 (2.1%)
Majority: 21032 (56.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6421 (16.1%)
Labour: 25779 (64.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2599 (6.5%)
Referendum: 845 (2.1%)
Other: 4245 (10.6%)
Majority: 19358 (48.5%)
Boundary changes: Gains the western half of Royal Docks wards from Poplar and Canning Town and part of Boleyn from West Ham, loses part of Custom House to West Ham.
Profile: this is the eastern part of Newham, covering East Ham, Beckton, Little Ilford, Manor park, Silvertown and North Woolwich. It is a hightly multicultural area, around two-thirds of the population are non-white, over 40% of residents are immigrants to the UK. 29% of the population gave their religion as muslim in the 2001 census, and this is reflected in the high vote for Respect: they managed one of their strongest performances here in 2005, taking second place in the seat. The seat is safely Labour, who currently hold every council seat in the constituency.
Most of East Ham is deprived, densely packed inner city terraced housing. Beckton towards the south of the seat was once the site of the gasworks that served London before the switch to North Sea gas and is still home to the largest sewage works in the country, the destination of London`s victorian sewerage system. Further south on the riverfront the seat covers two of the three huge royal docks built before the war to service large ships that couldn`t be handled by the docks upsteam. The docks closed in 1981, and the whole of the south of this seat has become a major site of redevelopment.
Beckton was largely redeveloped in the 1980s, more recently the Royal Docks have seen major development. London`s City Airport is situated here, and with the ExCeL exhibition centre just outside the constituency hotels and office space are rapidly springing up the docks alongside deluxe apartment complexes like Eastern Quay (completed 2003). There is further large scale development planned at Silvertown Quays, including a national aquarium.
This is the successor seat to Newham North East, giving it an interesting political history. The MP here until 1979 was Labour cabinet minister Reg Prentice, who defected to the Conservative party after being de-selected by left-wingers in his constituency association, despite an attempt by Julian Lewis, now Conservative MP for New Forest East, to infiltrate and take over the association in order to protect Prentice.
Current MP: Stephen Timms(Labour) born 1955, Oldham. Educated at Farnborough Grammar and Cambridge University. Prior to his election he worked in telecommunications. Newham councillor 1984-1994, leader of the council 1990-1994. First elected as MP for Newham North-East in the 1994 by-election. MP for East Ham since 1997. Junior social security minister 1998-1999, rapidly rising to Minister of State level in 1999. Financial Secretary to the Treasury 1999-2001, Minister of State for Education 2001-2002, Minister of State in the DTI 2002-2004, Finanical Secretary 2004-2005, Minister of State for Pensions 2005-2006. Chief Secretary to the Treasury 2006-2007, he was dropped from the cabinet by Gordon Brown and appointed Minister of State for Competitiveness in 2007. Minister of State for Work and Pensions since 2008 (more information at They work for you)
Paul Shea (Conservative) Partner in a fund management firm.Stephen Timms(Labour) born 1955, Oldham. Educated at Farnborough Grammar and Cambridge University. Prior to his election he worked in telecommunications. Newham councillor 1984-1994, leader of the council 1990-1994. First elected as MP for Newham North-East in the 1994 by-election. MP for East Ham since 1997. Junior social security minister 1998-1999, rapidly rising to Minister of State level in 1999. Financial Secretary to the Treasury 1999-2001, Minister of State for Education 2001-2002, Minister of State in the DTI 2002-2004, Finanical Secretary 2004-2005, Minister of State for Pensions 2005-2006. Chief Secretary to the Treasury 2006-2007, he was dropped from the cabinet by Gordon Brown and appointed Minister of State for Competitiveness in 2007. Minister of State for Work and Pensions since 2008 (more information at They work for you)
Chris Brice (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Church of England minister.
Judy Maciejowska (Green) Barry O`Connor (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 119171
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 30.4%
Over 60: 11.8%
Born outside UK: 41.2%
White: 34.5%
Black: 18%
Asian: 42%
Mixed: 3%
Other: 2.5%
Christian: 40.8%
Hindu: 10%
Muslim: 29%
Sikh: 4%
Full time students: 9.2%
Graduates 16-74: 20.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.1%
Owner-Occupied: 48.6%
Social Housing: 29.9% (Council: 20.2%, Housing Ass.: 9.7%)
Privately Rented: 18.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10%
I should mention that Newham South’s last MP, Nigel Spearing, is now a member of Richmond Park Labour Party and plays a pretty active role in our affairs. As it happens his predecessor, Elwyn Jones, I also met; he was Lord Chancellor when my father took silk in 1977 and they’d known each other for years before then at Grays Inn and elsewhere in the legal profession.
My figures:
Newham South
Lab 17593 59.0%
Con 5131 17.2%
LD 4258 14.3%
UKIP 392 1.3%
Grn 374 1.3%
oth 2058 6.9%
Based on the ‘notional’ results in the following wards from West Ham: Canning Town N; Canning Town S; Custom House; Plaistow S; Plaistow N (part). And from East Ham: Beckton; Royal Docks; East Ham S (part)
In another place somebody did give figures purporting to be the actual votes cast in each ward in Newham, but only for the wards in East Ham so it is not possible to calculate figures from there. The other caveat is ofcourse that two of the current wards are split between Newham South and other constituencies. But the above figures would be fairly close to the truth
pretty dreadful for Cons.
I think they polled something like 38.5% in 1992.
But then they polled about 10% in 1974
It was still predominantly a white working class seat in 1992. Not so now. And the decline is no worse than in many other London seats where they were on a similar kind of share in 1992 such as Walthamstow, Streatham, Hornsey & Wood Green. Unlike most of these this never was a ‘natural’ Tory area
Why are the demographics changing so fast in some of these seats?
We’ve seen Mother tongue figures for Redbridge the other day.
I think it’s because of larger and younger families.
I believe the Tories came 4th in 1974, behind the Liberals and the National Front, so the 1987 and 1992 were exceptionally good results for the Tories rather than the normal situation.
They came fourth in the May 1974 by-election, but I don’t think they did in October.
That’s right Joe. The improved results for the Conservatives in 1987 and 1992 were down largely to owner-occupied development of the former docks, which led to the Tories coming close to winning Custom House & Silvertown and South wards on their old boundaries (though they never quite managed to win). It is most interesting that the Tories have now gone backwards in these owner-occupied areas again and I am not sure that the above comments, correct though they mainly are, quite answer this point. Is it just increasing non-white population? That may be true in some parts of the seat but not all I’d have thought.
The increaed Tory vote in those areas in 1987 and 1992 is interesting because the vast majority of that type of development in the general Docklands area didn’t even begin until the late 1990s.
in the Newham section of docklands that isn’t really the case; there had already been substantial owner-occupied development when I moved into the area ijn 1989. Not quite on the scale of what’s happened on the Isle of Dogs, but enough to have a substantial political effect on the then Newham South constituency.
There had but I would suggest it was never numerous enough to account alone for the sharp rise in Tory support in Newham South in 1987 and 1992. It must be there was a large number of the established white working class moving over to the Tories as Labour were felt to be more interested in the affairs of minorities. This demographic has now largely been replaced by those minorities in the old Newham South too as they have moved out to the likes of Thurrock and Basildon
Pete,
Prior to 1997 the boundary commission proposed ‘Newham North’ and ‘Newham Central’ instead of East Ham and West Ham.
I assume this was a straight division of the combined boundaries North and South as opposed to East and West, and it was overturned because it represented no proper reflection of the communities.
The boundary commission also proposed that the new seat formed from much of Ealing Acton and Hammersmith would be Acton & Shepherds Bush as opposed to Ealing Action & Shepherds Bush. I think that the former would have been more appropiate as very little of Ealing remained.
The “Ealing” in the title of that constituency was probably a reference to the borough rather than the actual place.
I’m afraid some of these developments are already a bit run down, and there are rather too many people amongst them who don’t take pride in the area.
When you see supermarket trolleys stacked high with household rubbish on the same street or a turning off where the people probably live, that tells you something.
A few years ago, I also saw a gutted garage in a residential area.
People probably move out if they can.
But many of the residents are decent, and I think if it is a little more international (Eastern Europe), that would be a plus.
As for the East London Yoony, I could picture the degrees are in chewing gum. (metaphorically speaking)
Its is interesting that this must be one of the few seats in England where there has been a significant swing from Conservative to Labour between 1997 – 2010 – over 3%.
East Renfrewshire is about 7% and Brent North is around 10%, though Brent North has better boundaries for Labour.
Sorry, Brent North is 5%, so East Renfrewshire shows the greatest swing from Con to Lab between 1997 and 2010.
There was a socialist candidate who took a bite of the Labour vote in 1997 which then went back to Labour in 2001.
It was pretty striking how well Labour did in seats with a high ethnic minority population right across England this year bar 2/3 seats like Bradford E or Oldham E
Oldham East doesn’t have an especially high ethnic minority population
‘Oldham East doesn’t have an especially high ethnic minority population’
OK, my mistake.
“It was pretty striking how well Labour did in seats with a high ethnic minority population”
I am not surprised by this at all. It has to be said that it was Labours open door immigration policy (in part as well as many other factors) which helped to transform parts of London so quickly. This has obviously made many seats safer for them.
The fiasco in Tower Hamlets around election time shows how immigrant communities blindly vote Labour because they believe that they are the party which represents them. Many voters rushed to vote in Tower Hamlets although many of the women (predominantely Bangladeshi) could speak very little English and I would imagine they all voted Labour.
As these communities start moving outwards they will take their Labour vote with them as they are less inclined to switch to the Conservatives than many WWC voters thus providing Labour with a number of new seats which they would not have won before.
On the other hand while WWC voters move out of places like East Ham to Thurrock and beyond they tend to change alliance making places like Thurrock and Dartford/Gravesham/Basildon more Conservative in the process.
From the Boundary Commission consultation:
“As for the Boundary Changes to East Ham, my current constuency, do you honestly think that the people of Ilford South would like to be under East Ham. Madness. You all need your heads checked by the people in white coats!!.”
I’m sure they’ll take kindly to that….
Of course, this seat is easily large enough to donate a ward to another constituency, but perhaps it’s difficult to find a scheme whereby this can happen without having impractical knock-on effects.
I thought doktorb was quoting Stephen Timms though it didn’t sound like his kind of style. It appears not having searched the submissions made by Mr Timms. A few of the submissions from members of the public i’ve seen are similarly vitriolic. In particular I have seen a large number from residents of Dunstable objecting to their inclusion in a Luton seat
That’s totally unsurprising – there’s very little love lost between Dunstable even though (or because?) they’re conjoined. Having said that, was Dunstable in the Luton constituency before 1950?
East Ham and Ilford would make more sense as a name.
“Having said that, was Dunstable in the Luton constituency before 1950?”
It was although it was then a county seat which included most of the area of the recently abolished South Bedfordshire district (but not Leighton Buzzard). Of course when this seat was split into a Luton borough seat and a South Bedfordshire county seat, the latter did include a large part of what is now Luton North and in general the worst bits like Sundon Park and Leagrave (though much of this wouldn;t have been developed then). Basically the single Luton seat of 1950-74 had very similar boundaries to the proposed Luton South while South Bedfordshire was Luton North & Dunstable plus the rest of the current Beds SW . Its ironic that in their first contests Luton elected a Conservative MP and Bedfordshire South went Labour
My usual belated response, but since Dunstable is actually geographically part of Luton (despite the well-known local antipathy, which is one of the stongest in the country), I have supported the merger of Dunstable with Luton in 2 new Luton seats.
This is nothing to do with East Ham which is now whatever the boundaries one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
I was involved in the redevelopment of Docklands in the 1980s and 1990s, and the attempt to generate an owner-occupied and rich community here failed in the recession of the early 1990s. This was not Limehouse. Beckton is unfortunately an example of failed attempts to send an area up market, and has substantial social problems now. London City airport doesn’t help.
I’d be interested to know how surprised Nigel Spearing was by the huge swing to the Tories in Newham South in 1987.
As it happens I know Nigel who is a member of my CLP. I don’t think he was very surprised, as the swing was largely caused by owner-occupied, and at the time fairly upmarket, residential development in the south of the seat. The Tories targetted the seat in 1992 & I remember seeing teams of Labour canvassers from neighbouring safer Labour seats who looked like they hadn’t been there before but it seems did plenty work to make sure that a Tory gain didn’t occur. It now seems that the Tories have peaked in the area, having in fact never quite succeeded in winning any council seats; their wins have come in wards somewhat north of the former docklands areas, which on the old boundaries were Bemersyde (in one by-election in atrocious weather) and Greatfield which is akin to the present East Ham South ward. Nigel wasn’t that surprised no, even though the seat had been ferociously safe in the past; for example, in the 1974 by-election which returned him to Parliament the Tories were outpolled by the NF, far far behind Labour. And how about this incredibly lopsided result from West Ham, Silvertown (which eventually became part of Newham South many years later) in the 1945 general election:
Dr L.Comyns (Lab) 9,358
E.Elverston (C) 494
A.W.Davies (Ind) 401
LAB HELD
By a rather odd coincidence, at the time Nigel’s secretary was a member of my CLP (she still is). When Nigel was left without a seat in 1997, she worked for Helen Brinton, who won Peterborough (later Helen Clark). As it happens, in consecutive elections both politicians had the same Tory opponent, the Twickenham air hostess Jacqueline Foster (Newham South 1992, Peterborough). Foster & Brinton apparently disliked each other more than almost any pair of candidates in a well-contested election, though another more recent example is the Tory Anne Milton & the LD Sue Doughty in Guildford, between whom I understand absolutely no love is or has been lost.
That should of course have read Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997.
Thanks Barnaby. I asked the question because I noticed that at the top of this page you mentioned Nigel Spearing was active in the Richmond Labour Party.
I think some of these owner occupied areas which may have looked smart in the 1980s or 1992 are now rather tatty.
I can’t see that much Tory potential here even if the old Newham South was re-created which isn’t going to happen.
There is rather a nice area south of the Royal Victoria Dock, which is quite a good design, peaceful, and with lots of trees.
I guess that’s the Royal Docks ward which the Tories narrowly missed even in a by-election in 2008.
I saw Nigel Spearing again in February – he used to row with my Dad.
We discussed transport – interesting man.
I’m not sure whether this story about Anne Milton and Sue Doughty is true – Anne Milton kindly came to Richmond and Twickenham to advise us how to deal with the Lib Dems, but she never once gave any indication of personal dislike to her opponent. Far too professional.
Perhaps it’s easier to deal with them if you have a healthy dislike of them, Joe!
I don’t know Jacqueline Foster but there are some people in Twickenham who do.
She rather missed her chance to become an MP
but became a Euro MP.
The development south of Victoria Dock is indeed smart and up market and postdates considerably most of the development in the south of this constituency, which occurred in the late 1980s/early 1990s.
You have to remember that even in the south of the constituency there is a good deal of council housing, and the north is monolithically Asian and Labour.
The White British population of Newham declined from 82,386 to 51,516 between 2001 and 2011. During the same period the population of the borough as a whole increased from 243,891 to 307,984; the White British percentage therefore dropped from 33.8% to 16.7%.
Green Street East, white British:
2001: 2051 / 13212 = 16%
2011: 759 / 15885 = 5%
That’s my in-laws’ ward. They are in some ways typical of the demographic of the area, except they are Indian Christians.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Beckton: 42.7% / 24.2%
Boleyn: 35.1% / 13.3%
East Ham Central: 26.2% / 9.8%
East Ham North: 12.6% / 4.9%
East Ham South: 51.3% / 21.8%
Green Street East: 11.1% / 4.8%
Little Ilford: 23.9% / 10.4%
Manor Park: 23.0% / 10.4%
Royal Docks: 53.7% / 28.8%
Wall End: 24.4% / 10.2%
TOTAL: 29.2% / 13.4%
White overall, East Ham:
2001: 34.5%
2011: 23.1%