Eastbourne
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21223 (40.72%)
Labour: 2497 (4.79%)
Liberal Democrat: 24658 (47.31%)
BNP: 939 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1305 (2.5%)
Independent: 1502 (2.88%)
Majority: 3435 (6.59%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20255 (43.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 19500 (41.5%)
Labour: 5099 (10.9%)
Other: 2138 (4.6%)
Majority: 755 (1.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 21033 (43.5%)
Labour: 5268 (10.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 19909 (41.1%)
Green: 949 (2%)
UKIP: 1233 (2.5%)
Majority: 1124 (2.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19738 (44.1%)
Labour: 5967 (13.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 17584 (39.3%)
UKIP: 907 (2%)
Other: 574 (1.3%)
Majority: 2154 (4.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22183 (42.1%)
Labour: 6576 (12.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 20189 (38.3%)
Referendum: 2724 (5.2%)
Other: 995 (1.9%)
Majority: 1994 (3.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen Lloyd (Liberal Democrat)
Nigel Waterson(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Dave Brinson (Labour) Stephen Lloyd (Liberal Democrat) Roger Needham (UKIP)Colin Poulter (BNP) Keith Gell (Independent)Michael Baldry (Independent)Stephen Shing (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96851
Male: 46.4%
Female: 53.6%
Under 18: 19.9%
Over 60: 30.6%
Born outside UK: 7.8%
White: 96.8%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 73.4%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 4.5%
Graduates 16-74: 16.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.5%
Owner-Occupied: 70.3%
Social Housing: 15% (Council: 9.1%, Housing Ass.: 5.9%)
Privately Rented: 11.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8%
Here’s a point to consider.
Does anyone remember the ‘Pro-Euro Conservative Party’ that contested the European elections in 1999?
If such a party were re-founded today, would they get much support at the 2014 Euro elections?
This is coming from the perspective of someone who votes Conservative in local and general elections, but in 2009 I voted Lib Dem in the Euro elections because I strongly dissaproved of the tories pulling out of the EPP and the whole general direction of tory policies towards Europe.
To be honest, I fealt disenfranchised since I wasn’t able to vote for a party who’s MEP’s would take the EPP whip in the European parliament.
Since then I’ve taken that view that a ‘gap in the market’ has now arisen for a party that is boradly centre right and pro-European. In simple terms, a party with policies similar to the UMP in France and the CDU in Germany. It’s MEP’s would sit in the EPP grouping in the European parliament and would only contest Euro elections, whith it supporting the tories in all other domestic elections, although being a seperate party and opperationaly independant from the tories.
If such a party were to come about, would they have a seriouse chance of winning seats, or would they just be one of the now endless list of minnor parties that contest Euro elections nowerdays under PR?
Each to their own I suppose. The Pro-Euro Tories got 1.4% in the election where they stood and their tiny membership ended up mostly joiing the LDs. It must be fairly rare for people who don’t normally support the LDs to vote for them in the European elections where they have come fourth on the last two occasions.
What is it about the CDU and UMP that you find so attractive? really neither of those parties have anything about them that would apply to British political culture. It made some sense for the UK Conservatives to link with the main ‘cenre’right’ parties in other countries, but ultimately it didn’t make enough sense given the totally different approach to those parties to Europe. I can see why a Europhile UK Conservative might prefer that their party was still in that Christian Democrat grouping, but it seems bizarre to want to start a new party whose sole purpose is to be a part of it.
I personally believe David Cameron made a mistake in withdrawing from the EPP, which was basically a sop to defeat David Davis amongst the party membership in the leadership election.
Nevertheless I agree with Pete that a pro-Euro Tory party would never be a success under Britain’s electoral system and 2/3 party monopoly. For the same reason, Pete’s “non-fascist nationalist” party which he suggested yesterday would also be a complete electoral failure in terms of winning seats except in European elections, as is the case for UKIP.
The only success of any note that pro-European Tories have had recently was John Stevens beating Nigel Farage for second place in Buckingham in 2010.
However Stevens wasn’t described as a pro-European Conservative on the ballot paper; rather he sought election under the banner of “The Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy”.
“It is probably correct that the tories should target the lower middle classes, skilled industrial classes etc more but I think you overgeneralise about the ‘WWC’ as it is not a homogenous group.”
I know that.
But does the Conservative leadership?
Are they even interested in knowing that?
They seem to lack interest in and empathy with groups different to themselves.
I fear that to the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Letwin a prole is a prole.
Their only variations being between good proles, who tug their forelocks and ride pushbikes, and bad proles, who drive cars and {shock, horror} have even got so far above themselves that they fly on planes.
‘You seem to think that its actually worth being in power if you have to dump everything you believe in to do it. New Labour did that,’
I don’t buy that shaun
New Labour certainly did do that, but that’s not as accusation you can level at Cameron and his government
He fought an election campaign on the need to get down the budget defecit and has been true to his word by intiating one of the largest-scale program in public sector cuts in generations
He’s been the only British Prime Minister to have ever exercised his veto in a major EU summit, embarked on a program to make students pay for all of their university education and allowing schools to opt out of local education authority control
Surerly these are all measures that any genuine right winger would welcome
He might not have gone as far as you’d like – as I understand it the current government has no plans to erect any statues of General Pinnochet in Trafalgar Square, make fox hunting compulsary or privatise the NHS – but you can always blame Lib Dem involvement from that
To suggest you are any other than on the extreme rightist fringes of the political spectrum suggests to me that it’s you who are seriously deluded Shaun
The Tory section of this government are doing some fantastic things with Duncan-Smith, Pickles, Gove, Owen Paterson, Francis Maude (grudgingly) and others deserving specific merit.
But for me, failure on EU renegotiation, bringinig forward a referendum on changing the voting system, introducing fixed term parliaments and giving too much away to Lib Dems on areas of domestic policy such as health far outweigh those gains.
If Cameron were to hold out the prospect of an early general election to go for a Tory majority and dissolve this terrible coalition as soon as possible, I’d be delighted to make do and mend now in the hopes of something better in a year or so. But he won’t even do that.
And theres no point waving the Cameron veto in my face. I have nothing but praise for his use of the veto and I’m happy with that for the time being. All many of us really wanted was an expression that he is on our side and does not secretly support the Lib Dem ‘closer and closer union’ position.
But on the final point about the centre ground of British politics I’m afraid you are entirely wrong. Just because the liberal elite media, the BBC and left wing politicans tell you that you are really in the centre ground does not make it so. If it were so, more people would be voting Liberal Democrat!
The reality is that the centre ground is more to the right than is perhaps comfortable for you. Thats why renegotiation and repatriation of powers from Europe is slap bang where the ‘centre ground’ is. I admit though that my preferred position of withdrawel is still slightly further to the right than the electorate as a whole.
And thats also why bringing back the death penalty is slap bang where the UK centre ground is; why tough restrictions on immigration is slap bang where the UK centre ground is; why climate change scepticism is slap bang where the UK centre ground is…
All of these views are portrayed by yourself and the instruments of the liberal elite as being extreme, lunatic and even semi-fascist positions. None of those views are given adequate coverage that their status as majority opinions in the country would deserve. Instead, the aim is to change the position of the centre ground artificially by pretending that they are extreme positions rather than majority positions.
So I ask you again to rethink on where you believe the centre ground to be. I am well aware that my positions are indeed slightly further to the right than the centre ground. But I’m afraid your position is way way way off it, somewhere off to the ‘extreme’ left in comparison!
God forbid that Tim should be seen as on the “extreme” left. Where would that leave me?
I’m not sure I agree with Shaun, while a more populist tory focus on crime and immigration as Richard suggests might go down well with the lower classes, is the EU really such a constant concern with the electorate?
Also the idea that some of Shaun’s hardcore neoliberal ideas will rally the disengaged working classes to the ballot box also seems a bit fanciful.
A populist strategy may well be necessary but it has to be correctly pitched.
I’d also think Shaun maybe means the English centre ground (the scottish tories problems have been correctly analysed by Hemmelig).
‘God forbid that Tim should be seen as on the “extreme” left’
As has been discussed, one man’s moderate is another man’s extremist
Shaun mentions these populist right wing positions of the bulk of people supposedly in the centre ground but what about the leftist ones too – like the fact that most people blame the Tories banker friends for our current economic woes, and that the majority of people oppose fox hunting and strongly support the NHS remaining in public hands
I also think he overplays how right wing the electorate actually is. Most polls show a more or less 50/50 split on bringing back the death penalty – something which i’m sure you once said you didn’t support – and i agree with A Cairns that most peoples stance on Europe is one of disinterest rather than outright hostitlity
Also, he doesn’t satisfactorily answer why if his brand of hardcore right-wing Conservatism is so popular, it was so decisively rejected by the electorate in 2001 – surely the Tories most woeful performance in recent history.
Almost as bad as Labour’s performance in 1983 when they too dedcided to abandon the political centre ground
Were it not for Cameron or rather his detoxification strategy, the Tories wouldn’t be in government now – having been stuck on no more than 33% of the vote since the dying days of 1992
Tim
“Most polls show a more or less 50/50 split on bringing back the death penalty”
And actually there is evidence that there is now a majority against. Certainly in the online petitions on the subject recently, I believe the one against bringing back hanging got more signatures than the one in favour.
There’s certainly no evidence these days that bringing back the death penalty is the centre ground of British politics. Public opinion has moved a very long way since the 1980s, and the famous miscarriages of justice from that era (especially the Birmingham Six) have had a huge impact on that. I think many voters – myself included – would emotionally be happy to see certain appalling murderers executed, but accept that there are so many flaws with bringing back capital punishment that it’s probably best it doesn’t happen.
A Cairns, I’m not suggesting that it would motivate people to the polls as such. A lot of the-I hestitate to use your description ‘the lower classes’-but certainly a lot of ordinary people are just so turned off by politics of all parties in general that motivating them to go to the polls would be extremely difficult even if you were proposing a lot of things they thoroughly agree with. Most would probably still say ‘I can’t be bothered’.
And yes I do agree with you that the English ‘centre ground’ is significantly more to the right than the UK as a whole due to the influence of the Scots left majority. I often wonder how our politics might naturally swing far more to the right than we’re used to if and when Scots go off their own seperate way. I suspect Tim, H.Hemmlig and others would be horrified at the prospect.
Tim, the things you have raised as examples are not necessarily exclusive of right-wingers. A lot of people blamed the bankers, and why not, the evidence was overwhelming that they were largely responsible. But the instruments of the liberal elite propaganda machine has a large part to play on influening opinion as well you know. And on fox hunting, well I’m not particularly in favour of it. Ann Widdecombe is against it-heck, even Alan Clark was against it! Its hardly a left-right issue of note.
And the death penalty? well I’m sure 40 years of being told that you’re horrid if you support it has had no effect whatsoever. And even after that relentless campaign polls show 50% support still! Don’t ask, why its only 50%, ask instead why its STILL as high as 50%
“Also, he doesn’t satisfactorily answer why if his brand of hardcore right-wing Conservatism is so popular, it was so decisively rejected by the electorate in 2001 – surely the Tories most woeful performance in recent history”
Well as I said above, I did answer that question earlier but it was deleted. I’ll try again for you since you have asked the question.
The truth is that only the self declared ‘moderates’ attempt to spin this line that defeat in 2001 was in any way an indication of peoples hostility to Tory right-wing policies. If that was the case, why did we suffer an even worse landslide defeat in 1997 when the party was being led by those well known extremists, John Major, Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine et al?
Do people really still think that if rightwingers had only kept their mouths shut in 1997 and let the leadership adopt a fantaically pro-EU policy platform, we’d have been returned to power for a fifth term? No? Then your argument has a problem Tim.
The fact is that NO Tory policy platform would or could have won in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Write those elections off. They were unwinnable. We are wasting our time looking for lessons there. People just didn’t want to listen to what the party had to say.
But by 2010 the Cameron agenda failed to win an election against the most unpopular Labour government of modern times. People had no confidence that the Tories were offering anything any different. Cameron had to be dragged kicking and screaming into even talking about the issue that so many ordinary people were talking about-immigration controls. He wasn’t ntirely trusted on the economy and his policies on health and education were not fully formed-indeed, his big society idea was only first mentioned as a platform at the manifesto launch!
So the first time people were listening to us and wanted a radical right-wing agenda similar to that we offered in 2001 and 2005, we decided to offer them bland, ‘blue Labour’ rhetoric and then wonder why people weren’t motivated.
Lets look at this argument in reverse just to really show up what a nonsense it is: do we really think that the Tories failed to win the 2000 and 2004 London mayoral elections because Steve Norris (one of the self declared moderates you will notice) was the candidate? And therefore that Boris Johnson’s victory in 2008 was because he was a well known right-wing candidate argunig against a lot of the Cameron agenda?
Of course not. Quite simply, Steve Norris could have won in 2008 and Boris Johnson could not have won in 2000 or 2004. Thats just the way it goes. And its exactly the same lesson from the 1997-2010 general elections. To try and claim that we lost because we were rightwing and won in 2010 (what?) because of the ‘detoxification’ strategy really is just playing with smoke and mirrors.
“And therefore that Boris Johnson’s victory in 2008 was because he was a well known right-wing candidate argunig against a lot of the Cameron agenda?”
Boris is not right wing. He has often argued against the “Cameron agenda” from the left – for example he is in favour of an amnesty for illegal immigrants and is against capping housing benefit, saying it will balkanise London.
Boris is a mixture; on some issues he is to the Right of Cameron, but on others as you say he is not. He also supported Ken Clarke for leader, something no genuine right-wing ideologue would have done. Norris although quite centrist on some issues always voted to reintroduce hanging when an MP.
Norris would have made an excellent mayor.
‘The fact is that NO Tory policy platform would or could have won in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Write those elections off. They were unwinnable
1997 certainly was, and after the scale of that defeat 2001 was always going to be an uphill task, but I don’t accept that either election was unswinnable as such
The dismal turn out of the 2001 election demonstrated the lack of enthusiasm for Tony Blair and whilst Labour have proved itself more competent in its stewardship of running the country than administrations of the past, surely the Tories woluld have done better had they not repeated the mistakes of Michael Foot’s Labour Party by only speaking to their core vote
By 2005 Labour’s top brass looked very weak and tired – especially after the draining effect of the Iraq War. Had the Tories been a more effective opoosition gthey could have had thedm on the ropes over a whole range of issues in the run up to 2005 yet they continued to beat the right wing populist drum that you now advocate they repeat, and subsequently suffered another fairly resounding defeat
To say the Tories missed out on the seats they needed to win a majority in 2010 because they weren’t right wing enough just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny
I accept that government’s lose elections and opposition’s seldom win them, but I seriously think if Cameron hadn’t adopted his now much scorned liberal stance in 2006-07 the Tories would have fallen even shorter in 2010
And unlike abortion, the death penalty, euthanasia, fox hunting is essentially a right/left if not party political issue. There are the odd Tories who oppose it – from hardline right-wingers like David Ames and Roger Gale to more moderate voices like Anne Widdecombe and Mike Wetherly – but aparty from them I can’t think olf a single Tory MP in the current Parliament who doesn’t wsant to bring it back. Likewise with the exception kof Kate Hoey I can’t think of a Labour MP that supports it, whilst the Lib Dems, as the centre party, are split on the issue
As ever, an interesting post, Tim. Personally, I am not so sure that the Tories were wildly right-wing in 2001 and 2005. Nevertheless, Labour certainly portrayed them as such- and it worked. I can remember Tony Blair claiming that the Tories wanted to cut expenditure in 2005 when in fact they were only arguing for lower rates of increase.
Nonetheless, I agree that the Conservatives should have performed better in 2001 and 2005. Their failure to do so made Cameron’s job extremely difficult in 2010. He had to start from a low base camp- both nationally and in former Tory-held seats. In some of them, Labour’s percentage majorities were barely down on their 1997 level- Chorley and Blackpool South were good examples.
In fact several of the 2010 intake of Tory MPs have said they are not in favour of legislating to make hunting with dogs legal again. 2 I can think of straight away apart from Mike Weatherley, as Tim correctly mentioned, are Simon Kirby (Brighton Kemptown) & Richard Harrington (Watford).
‘In fact several of the 2010 intake of Tory MPs have said they are not in favour of legislating to make hunting with dogs legal again.’
Thanks for the info Barnaby.
I thought the 2010 intake of Tory MPs were more or less united in their desire to see fox hunting back on the books
The fact that he opposed hunting was quite prominent in Mike Wetherly’s pre-election literature, although I don’t recall neighbouring (well more or less) MP Simon Kirby mentioning it
Interesting that none of the five Tories who oppose hunting come from rural constituencies, with the Lib Dem being similar with those MPs from urban seats being far more opposed to it than those from rural ones
In answer to Tory, I would also say that in terms of eletoral history, the amount of seats the Tories did win in 2010 is actually pretty impressive. They fell short of a majoritry but did just about well enough to prevent any rainbow coalition with Labour, Lib Dems, Nationalists etc
That hardly gets mention
Tim’s last point is absolutely right. Set against any historical benchmark, Cameron’s total seat gains in 2010 were very impressive.
On fox hunting – I think an important part of the story is Labour’s transformation from a party of heavy industrial working class trade unionists into a party of urban middle class professionals.
In Labour’s industrial heartlands – in particular the coalfields, which were often quite rural – there was often a very strong tradition of field sports and various types of hunting. Not fox hunting – which was regarded as a gentleman’s sport – but other hunting with dogs including rabbitting, ratting, hare coarsing and fell hunting as well as angling.
Also it is important to mention the very close linkages between hunting and racing, which the traditional flat-capped Labour-supporting betting shop patron will understand very well. Of course racing of greyhounds, pigeons and whippets was very popular in these kinds of working class areas as was and is betting on the horses.
My great uncle, who was an NUM shop steward for decades and have mentioned on here before, was such a Labour man he had the Red Flag played on a trumpet at his funeral. He also was a keen ratter and rabbiter in his young days and kept Jack Russells for this purpose most of his life. He and many other old Labour people of his generation was opposed to abolishing hunting as he understood its linkages to the old working class sports I discuss above.
Now Labour is a party dominated by urban middle class professionals this whole approach has disappeared.
Actually one of the very last to espouse it was Robin Cook, who was fiercely pro-hunting and understood its place in terms of supporting his beloved horse racing.
Quite rightly I think the government is giving this issue a low priority now. It is hardly of any importance compared with the economic circumstances we are in. Also it is an open secret that the current anti-hunting laws are widely ignored.
I agree that Cameron did well in 2010- a net gain of 90-odd seats is no mean feat for which he deserves more recognition. I will offer a caveat though. Labour’s fall contributed somewhat more to the national swing than the Tories’ rise. This was in contrast to 1979. Thus, Cameron was not quite able to say that the country had rejected Labour for his party.
Hemelig is quite right – there is definitely what’s often referred to as a ‘snob and yob’ element in blood sports – and those most fiercey against it are the urban middle classes
There was a program that made this very point by a right-wing historian about 5-6 years ago
Can’t remember who but it was some hanger, flogger type
And I agree with Tory that Labour’s fall was more decisive to the forming of the current government that the Tories rise – there were seats in the South West where labour got pipped to 3rd place by UKIP and in the Eastern region they failed to hold a single seat – missing out on working class strongholds like Thurrock, Ipswich and Yarmouth
Im a eurosceptic and defecit hawk but fiercely agaisnt capital punishment and fox hunting and I suspect most younger conservatives follow this line of thinking
One contributory factor for the LD gain at the last election may be the fact that the number of atheists in Eastbourne increased from 16.7% to 29.2% between 2001 and 2011.
Why would atheists be more inclined to vote Lib Dem in the modern age?
The first tranche of target seats from the Conservatives in 2013…..include some seats they’ve already called for, which tells its own story I think
Anyway, the ten seats in the latest update (including some they’ve already mentioned) are
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton West
Brecon and Radnorshire
Chippenham
Chorley
Eastbourne
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Morley and Outwood
North Devon
Somerton and Frome
Telford
Torbay
Vale of Clwyd
Caroline Ansell has been selected as the Conservative candidate.