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	<title>Comments on: Ealing North</title>
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		<title>By: Pete Whitehead</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283298</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete Whitehead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 22:24:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283298</guid>
		<description>Indeed not only that but the old Feltham would be a better seat now than Heston &amp; Isleworth.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Indeed not only that but the old Feltham would be a better seat now than Heston &amp; Isleworth.</p>
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		<title>By: Dalek</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283297</link>
		<dc:creator>Dalek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 22:03:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283297</guid>
		<description>Heston &amp; Isleworth had a Conservative majority of 4599 in 1970 and Brentford &amp; Chiswick a Labour majority of 513 in 1970.

Pete has commented before that if both these constituencies existed today Brentford &amp; Chiswick would now be much more Tory than Brentford &amp; Isleworth as a whole (the reverse of 1970) and Heston &amp; Isleworth would now be a safe Labour seat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Heston &amp; Isleworth had a Conservative majority of 4599 in 1970 and Brentford &amp; Chiswick a Labour majority of 513 in 1970.</p>
<p>Pete has commented before that if both these constituencies existed today Brentford &amp; Chiswick would now be much more Tory than Brentford &amp; Isleworth as a whole (the reverse of 1970) and Heston &amp; Isleworth would now be a safe Labour seat.</p>
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		<title>By: 601</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283296</link>
		<dc:creator>601</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 19:33:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283296</guid>
		<description>he</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>he</p>
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		<title>By: Pete Whitehead</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283295</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete Whitehead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 19:20:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283295</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve actually worked out notional results for every London constituency (current boundaries) for every election going back to 1945.  I was planning to publish my findings around now with maps and everything but have rather been overtaken by the Boundary commission proposals, which have a rather more urgent call on my time now</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve actually worked out notional results for every London constituency (current boundaries) for every election going back to 1945.  I was planning to publish my findings around now with maps and everything but have rather been overtaken by the Boundary commission proposals, which have a rather more urgent call on my time now</p>
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		<title>By: Pete Whitehead</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283294</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete Whitehead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 19:17:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283294</guid>
		<description>Brentford &amp; Isleworth would definitely have been Conservative in 1970.  The addition of Hounslow West wouldn&#039;t have been as harmful to their prospects then as it is now</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brentford &amp; Isleworth would definitely have been Conservative in 1970.  The addition of Hounslow West wouldn&#8217;t have been as harmful to their prospects then as it is now</p>
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		<title>By: Dalek</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283292</link>
		<dc:creator>Dalek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 15:48:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283292</guid>
		<description>&quot;Which London constituencies would ahve changed hands if the 1970 votes had happened this year?&quot;

Mitcham &amp; Morden (Lab)

Would have been Labour in 1970.   I can see why you might have through it would have been Tory (the Mitcham seat being won by over 5000 by the Conservatives) but that included Wallington and excluded Morden.   Radio Times 74 list M &amp; M as a Labour seat.

Dulwich &amp; West Norwood (Con)

Likely to have been Tory in 1970 because Dulwich was Labour by 895 and Norwood by 613.   The combined seat excludes some of the more Labour areas further North form both seats.

Brentford &amp; Chiswick (Too close to call)

Had a Labour majority of 513 in 1970.   The Radio Times pages for the Feb 1974 election listed Brentford &amp; Isleworth as Conservative but the addition of Hounslow West may have tipped the seat in Labour balance.

Ealing North (Lab)

Might have been won by Labour in 1970 as it had a Labour majority in 1970.   Boundary changes in 1974 helped the Tories, 1983 helped Labour through the removal of a safe Tory Ealing Ward, 1997 reverted more or less to the 1974 boundaries and 2010 reverted more or less back to the 1983 boundaries so I think Labour would have won the current Ealing North in 1970.

Putney (Too close to call)

Wandsworth Putney had a Labour majority of 1300 but included what was then a very safe Labour ward that is now a Tory ward in Battersea.   Its possible the removal of that ward in 1974 (and the constituency has only had very minor changes since) would be significant but more likely a Labour majority of a couple of hundred.

Westminster North (Con but only just)

I agree that the Conservatives would have won Westminster North but Labour were ahead in the sum of the Paddington seats by around 500 votes and the Northern part of St Marylebone is not really that Tory.   St Johns Wood is largely balance by Church Street.

In 1979 the Tories won Paddington but the notional for Westminster North was only just over 2000, so that would equate to 1500 Con maj in 1970.

Romford (Con)

Romford is interesting because Labour won Romford by over 2000 in 1970.   I think Pete has allured to Upminster being formed from the more Tory parts of Hornchurch and the more Labour parts of Romford (hence the Conservative victory in Romford against the trend in 1974).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Which London constituencies would ahve changed hands if the 1970 votes had happened this year?&#8221;</p>
<p>Mitcham &amp; Morden (Lab)</p>
<p>Would have been Labour in 1970.   I can see why you might have through it would have been Tory (the Mitcham seat being won by over 5000 by the Conservatives) but that included Wallington and excluded Morden.   Radio Times 74 list M &amp; M as a Labour seat.</p>
<p>Dulwich &amp; West Norwood (Con)</p>
<p>Likely to have been Tory in 1970 because Dulwich was Labour by 895 and Norwood by 613.   The combined seat excludes some of the more Labour areas further North form both seats.</p>
<p>Brentford &amp; Chiswick (Too close to call)</p>
<p>Had a Labour majority of 513 in 1970.   The Radio Times pages for the Feb 1974 election listed Brentford &amp; Isleworth as Conservative but the addition of Hounslow West may have tipped the seat in Labour balance.</p>
<p>Ealing North (Lab)</p>
<p>Might have been won by Labour in 1970 as it had a Labour majority in 1970.   Boundary changes in 1974 helped the Tories, 1983 helped Labour through the removal of a safe Tory Ealing Ward, 1997 reverted more or less to the 1974 boundaries and 2010 reverted more or less back to the 1983 boundaries so I think Labour would have won the current Ealing North in 1970.</p>
<p>Putney (Too close to call)</p>
<p>Wandsworth Putney had a Labour majority of 1300 but included what was then a very safe Labour ward that is now a Tory ward in Battersea.   Its possible the removal of that ward in 1974 (and the constituency has only had very minor changes since) would be significant but more likely a Labour majority of a couple of hundred.</p>
<p>Westminster North (Con but only just)</p>
<p>I agree that the Conservatives would have won Westminster North but Labour were ahead in the sum of the Paddington seats by around 500 votes and the Northern part of St Marylebone is not really that Tory.   St Johns Wood is largely balance by Church Street.</p>
<p>In 1979 the Tories won Paddington but the notional for Westminster North was only just over 2000, so that would equate to 1500 Con maj in 1970.</p>
<p>Romford (Con)</p>
<p>Romford is interesting because Labour won Romford by over 2000 in 1970.   I think Pete has allured to Upminster being formed from the more Tory parts of Hornchurch and the more Labour parts of Romford (hence the Conservative victory in Romford against the trend in 1974).</p>
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		<title>By: 601</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-283281</link>
		<dc:creator>601</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Sep 2011 20:48:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-283281</guid>
		<description>What are the Commision thinking by moving Perivale to what is now most of Brent North?

I think the proposals for Ealing Council area are some of the worst in London. 

Perivale has strong links with Greenford and Northolt. Although i know Perivale and Alperton are now very similar it shuold still be with Greenford and Northolt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What are the Commision thinking by moving Perivale to what is now most of Brent North?</p>
<p>I think the proposals for Ealing Council area are some of the worst in London. </p>
<p>Perivale has strong links with Greenford and Northolt. Although i know Perivale and Alperton are now very similar it shuold still be with Greenford and Northolt.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-271798</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Dec 2010 14:01:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-271798</guid>
		<description>Which London constituencies would ahve changed hands if the 1970 votes had happened this year?

At a guess:

Con gain from Lab
Harrow W
Brent N
Ealing N
Westminster N
Ilford S
Streatham
Croydon N
Mitcham
Lewisham W

Con gain from LibD
Twickenham
Kingston
Sutton
Carshalton
Hornsey

Lab gain from Con
Putney
Battersea

Lab gain from LibD
Bermondsey</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which London constituencies would ahve changed hands if the 1970 votes had happened this year?</p>
<p>At a guess:</p>
<p>Con gain from Lab<br />
Harrow W<br />
Brent N<br />
Ealing N<br />
Westminster N<br />
Ilford S<br />
Streatham<br />
Croydon N<br />
Mitcham<br />
Lewisham W</p>
<p>Con gain from LibD<br />
Twickenham<br />
Kingston<br />
Sutton<br />
Carshalton<br />
Hornsey</p>
<p>Lab gain from Con<br />
Putney<br />
Battersea</p>
<p>Lab gain from LibD<br />
Bermondsey</p>
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		<title>By: Douglas</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-270739</link>
		<dc:creator>Douglas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Dec 2010 01:50:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-270739</guid>
		<description>Barnaby - touche. Apparently Bracken&#039;s story was that he was an orphan from the Australian outback. I&#039;m not sure that someone from an Irish Catholic background (who was open about it) would have been selected by the Conservatives in the 1920s - indeed being a Catholic full stop back then was something of a barrier.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barnaby &#8211; touche. Apparently Bracken&#8217;s story was that he was an orphan from the Australian outback. I&#8217;m not sure that someone from an Irish Catholic background (who was open about it) would have been selected by the Conservatives in the 1920s &#8211; indeed being a Catholic full stop back then was something of a barrier.</p>
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		<title>By: Lancs Observer</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/comment-page-5/#comment-270710</link>
		<dc:creator>Lancs Observer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/?p=511#comment-270710</guid>
		<description>Pete - v interesting re levels of Council housing. Lpool West Derby interestingly was a Tory seat when over 70% Council housing stock. Even in the 1991 census it had the highest proportion of housing of any UK seat without central heating (43%).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pete &#8211; v interesting re levels of Council housing. Lpool West Derby interestingly was a Tory seat when over 70% Council housing stock. Even in the 1991 census it had the highest proportion of housing of any UK seat without central heating (43%).</p>
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