Ealing North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14722 (30.88%)
Labour: 24023 (50.39%)
Liberal Democrat: 6283 (13.18%)
BNP: 1045 (2.19%)
UKIP: 685 (1.44%)
Green: 505 (1.06%)
Christian: 415 (0.87%)
Majority: 9301 (19.51%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19823 (46.7%)
Conservative: 12130 (28.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8001 (18.9%)
Other: 2460 (5.8%)
Majority: 7693 (18.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13897 (29.9%)
Labour: 20956 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9148 (19.7%)
Green: 1319 (2.8%)
UKIP: 692 (1.5%)
Other: 495 (1.1%)
Majority: 7059 (15.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13185 (29.3%)
Labour: 25022 (55.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5043 (11.2%)
UKIP: 668 (1.5%)
Green: 1039 (2.3%)
Majority: 11837 (26.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20744 (37.2%)
Labour: 29904 (53.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3887 (7%)
Other: 1191 (2.1%)
Majority: 7170 (12.9%)
Boundary changes: loses large parts of Hanger Hill and Ealing Broadway to the new Ealing Central and Acton seat, while gaining part of Greenford from Ealing Southall
Profile: A north-west London seat, bi-sected by the A40. The seat covers Northolt, Greenford and Perivale and is mostly relatively homogenous semi-detached suburbia built in the 1920s and 1930s as a dormitory for Ealing, along with some slightly later built council housing. There is a substantial ethnic minority community, but not the degree of neighbours Ealing Southall or Brent North. There is also a substantial Polish community.
Ealing North is a classic marginal that has largely matched the ebbs and flows of the national political picture (though not one of the best bellwether seats as it remained Labour in 1970), historically it has seen some extreme swings, sometimes thanks to local issues. The new boundaries make it slightly safer for Labour and the Conservatives would require an impressive swing to come close to taking the seat, but then, this is a politically volatile area.
Current MP: Stephen Pound(Labour) born 1948, Hammersmith. Educated at Hertford Grammar and (as a mature student after working as a seaman and bus conducter) the LSE. Formerly area housing manager of Paddington churches housing association. Ealing councillor from 1982-1998. First elected as MP for Ealing North in 1997. PPS to Hazel Blears between 2005 and 2007, when he resigned over the decision to replace Trident. Normally a Labour loyalist and a self-depreciating Parliamentary wit, Pound famously volunteered in 2003 to pilot through a private members bill on a subject voted for by listeners to Radio 4`s Today programme and quoted Dick Tuck in response to listeners` eventual decision to vote for a “Tony Martin Bill” allowing householders to use force against burgulars: “The people have spoken, the bastards” (more information at They work for you)
Ian Gibb (Conservative) Educated at Bradford University. Concrete engineer. Ealing councillor since 1992. Contested Warwickshire North in 2005.Stephen Pound(Labour) born 1948, Hammersmith. Educated at Hertford Grammar and (as a mature student after working as a seaman and bus conducter) the LSE. Formerly area housing manager of Paddington churches housing association. Ealing councillor from 1982-1998. First elected as MP for Ealing North in 1997. PPS to Hazel Blears between 2005 and 2007, when he resigned over the decision to replace Trident. Normally a Labour loyalist and a self-depreciating Parliamentary wit, Pound famously volunteered in 2003 to pilot through a private members bill on a subject voted for by listeners to Radio 4`s Today programme and quoted Dick Tuck in response to listeners` eventual decision to vote for a “Tony Martin Bill” allowing householders to use force against burgulars: “The people have spoken, the bastards” (more information at They work for you)
Chris Lucas (Liberal Democrat)Christopher Warleigh-Lack (Green)Ian de Wulverton (UKIP) 
Dave Furness (BNP) Petar Ljubisic (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105848
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 16.9%
Born outside UK: 32.1%
White: 62.7%
Black: 10%
Asian: 19.3%
Mixed: 4.2%
Other: 3.8%
Christian: 58.3%
Hindu: 8.6%
Muslim: 9.7%
Sikh: 3%
Full time students: 5.3%
Graduates 16-74: 26.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.6%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 20.4% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.8%
Never realised Paddington South remained marginal in 1970.
What would the figures for Brent be?
Assume a 10% Labour majority in Wembley North, 25% Labour majority in Wembley South, as South will have had far more demographic change.
15% Lib Dem majority in Willesden East and 15% Labour majority in Willesden East.
Probably about right for the Wembley seats (i’d make it slightly under 20% in South with the LDs second).
The Willesden seats are perhaps not as divergent as you might think. Remember that a substantial part of Willesden East is now in the Hampstead & Kilburn seat and shorn of Teather’s personal vote, Labour would have been well ahead there in 2010. Also Willesden West included some areas which subsequently became part of Brent East and which were relatively strong ground for the LDs and Teather, such as Willesden Green. I’d put the LD lead in East at about 5% and the Labour lead in West not higher than 10%
Is this the constituency that has swung most from the Conservatives since 1987?
Paddington North used to be the seat of Brendan Bracken in the 30s and 40s – one of Winston Churchill’s closest companions. He was rumoured to be Churchill’s illegitimate son on account of him carefully covering up his Irish ancestry.
If you’re trying to do that, being called Brendan wouldn’t help I guess.
Pete – v interesting re levels of Council housing. Lpool West Derby interestingly was a Tory seat when over 70% Council housing stock. Even in the 1991 census it had the highest proportion of housing of any UK seat without central heating (43%).
Barnaby – touche. Apparently Bracken’s story was that he was an orphan from the Australian outback. I’m not sure that someone from an Irish Catholic background (who was open about it) would have been selected by the Conservatives in the 1920s – indeed being a Catholic full stop back then was something of a barrier.
Which London constituencies would ahve changed hands if the 1970 votes had happened this year?
At a guess:
Con gain from Lab
Harrow W
Brent N
Ealing N
Westminster N
Ilford S
Streatham
Croydon N
Mitcham
Lewisham W
Con gain from LibD
Twickenham
Kingston
Sutton
Carshalton
Hornsey
Lab gain from Con
Putney
Battersea
Lab gain from LibD
Bermondsey
What are the Commision thinking by moving Perivale to what is now most of Brent North?
I think the proposals for Ealing Council area are some of the worst in London.
Perivale has strong links with Greenford and Northolt. Although i know Perivale and Alperton are now very similar it shuold still be with Greenford and Northolt.
“Which London constituencies would ahve changed hands if the 1970 votes had happened this year?”
Mitcham & Morden (Lab)
Would have been Labour in 1970. I can see why you might have through it would have been Tory (the Mitcham seat being won by over 5000 by the Conservatives) but that included Wallington and excluded Morden. Radio Times 74 list M & M as a Labour seat.
Dulwich & West Norwood (Con)
Likely to have been Tory in 1970 because Dulwich was Labour by 895 and Norwood by 613. The combined seat excludes some of the more Labour areas further North form both seats.
Brentford & Chiswick (Too close to call)
Had a Labour majority of 513 in 1970. The Radio Times pages for the Feb 1974 election listed Brentford & Isleworth as Conservative but the addition of Hounslow West may have tipped the seat in Labour balance.
Ealing North (Lab)
Might have been won by Labour in 1970 as it had a Labour majority in 1970. Boundary changes in 1974 helped the Tories, 1983 helped Labour through the removal of a safe Tory Ealing Ward, 1997 reverted more or less to the 1974 boundaries and 2010 reverted more or less back to the 1983 boundaries so I think Labour would have won the current Ealing North in 1970.
Putney (Too close to call)
Wandsworth Putney had a Labour majority of 1300 but included what was then a very safe Labour ward that is now a Tory ward in Battersea. Its possible the removal of that ward in 1974 (and the constituency has only had very minor changes since) would be significant but more likely a Labour majority of a couple of hundred.
Westminster North (Con but only just)
I agree that the Conservatives would have won Westminster North but Labour were ahead in the sum of the Paddington seats by around 500 votes and the Northern part of St Marylebone is not really that Tory. St Johns Wood is largely balance by Church Street.
In 1979 the Tories won Paddington but the notional for Westminster North was only just over 2000, so that would equate to 1500 Con maj in 1970.
Romford (Con)
Romford is interesting because Labour won Romford by over 2000 in 1970. I think Pete has allured to Upminster being formed from the more Tory parts of Hornchurch and the more Labour parts of Romford (hence the Conservative victory in Romford against the trend in 1974).
Brentford & Isleworth would definitely have been Conservative in 1970. The addition of Hounslow West wouldn’t have been as harmful to their prospects then as it is now
I’ve actually worked out notional results for every London constituency (current boundaries) for every election going back to 1945. I was planning to publish my findings around now with maps and everything but have rather been overtaken by the Boundary commission proposals, which have a rather more urgent call on my time now
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Heston & Isleworth had a Conservative majority of 4599 in 1970 and Brentford & Chiswick a Labour majority of 513 in 1970.
Pete has commented before that if both these constituencies existed today Brentford & Chiswick would now be much more Tory than Brentford & Isleworth as a whole (the reverse of 1970) and Heston & Isleworth would now be a safe Labour seat.
Indeed not only that but the old Feltham would be a better seat now than Heston & Isleworth.