“This by-election was a curious result bearing in mind that Livingstone trailed Johnson 12 points and Dheer trailed Barnes 16 points in Ealing/Hillingdon”

Not really - this is a more Labour ward than this seat as a whole. Tories were 7% ahead in the wards of this seat in May 2006 but Labour ahead in Greenfird Broadway. Havent looked at the details but the result doesnt seem to be out of line with the other elections held last thursday.

Connsidering Sonika Nirwal only won by 8 votes in 2006 I would have expected a greater Conservative majority than 20 considering what was going on elsewhere on Thursday and their current lead in the opinion polls.

Well in 2006 Labour did exceptionally badly in Ealing because of local issues, which now no longer exist, so the result for the Tories last week isn’t as bad as you suggest.

If the Tories can extend their share of the vote in Ealing North from 2006 when they were already ahead, despite no obvious current local issues, the Tories’ chances of taking the seat are a bit more than 15%.

Labour did a lot worse in Ealing North in 1990 when it was reduced to two seats(Steve Pound’s being one of them).This was the last time Labour lost a council election in Ealing prior to 2006(and it was practically all down to their massacre in Ealing North).The last election was largely determined by the West London Tram which accounts for their reverses in Ealing,Hanwell and Acton though I can’t think it was a major factor in Greenford.The then Council leader(Leonora Thompson)however did lose her seat in this ward(unlike her two Labour colleagues)which does suggest that some voters were determined to take their anger at the Council out on her.This was in the past more of a marginal ward which tended to swing to the winning side rather than a rock solid Labour ward.There has been a considerable Asian exodus from Southall into the area in recent years which may account for Labour doing better in this by-election than they did overall in Ealing/Hillingdon at the GLA elections.

London 2008 results for Ealing North (new boundaries):
{excluding postal votes}

Mayor:
C - 12,251 (41.39%), Lab - 11,512 (38.89%), LD - 2,694 (9.10%)

Constituency (Ealing & Hillingdon):
C - 11,234 (38.37%), Lab - 9,175 (31.34%), LD - 2,754 (9.41%)

List:
C - 9,977 (33.91%), Lab - 9,384 (31.89%), LD - 2,477 (8.42%)

The detailed results reveal that Labour did not do better int he Greenford Broadway byelection than they did in the other elections of the same day, at least not relative to the Conservatives. Richard Barnes carried the wards by a margin of 8 votes but Labour won it on the LIst vote and Ken Livingstone carried it.
These figures ofcourse do not include postal votes

Mayor
Con 1406
Lab 1552

GLA List
Con 1193
Lab 1362

GLA Constituency
Con 1330
Lab 1322

Ealing LBC by-election
Con 1790
Lab 1770

Looks like it will be VERY close at the general election on those figures. Question is will Stephen Pound’ personal vote be Labour’s saving grace?

Labour is likely to perform better on a general election turnout. The figures suggest a Labour hold by a few thousand votes.

Pete Whitehead’s figures confirm how the ward has changed in recent years.Labour obviously did a lot better here than elsewhere in Ealing/Hillingdon.Steve Pound is a great survivor as he demonstrated in the 1990 local elections when his reputation for doing the casework ensured his re-election.It might do so again.Harry Greenway also had considerable personal support though this did not save him in 1997.