Ealing North
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19823 (46.7%)
Conservative: 12130 (28.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8001 (18.9%)
Other: 2460 (5.8%)
Majority: 7693 (18.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13897 (29.9%)
Labour: 20956 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9148 (19.7%)
Green: 1319 (2.8%)
UKIP: 692 (1.5%)
Other: 495 (1.1%)
Majority: 7059 (15.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13185 (29.3%)
Labour: 25022 (55.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5043 (11.2%)
UKIP: 668 (1.5%)
Green: 1039 (2.3%)
Majority: 11837 (26.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20744 (37.2%)
Labour: 29904 (53.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3887 (7%)
Other: 1191 (2.1%)
Majority: 7170 (12.9%)
Boundary changes: loses large parts of Hanger Hill and Ealing Broadway to the new Ealing Central and Acton seat, while gaining part of Greenford from Ealing Southall
Profile: A north-west London seat, bi-sected by the A40. The seat covers Northolt, Greenford and Perivale and is mostly relatively homogenous semi-detached suburbia built in the 1920s and 1930s as a dormitory for Ealing, along with some slightly later built council housing. There is a substantial ethnic minority community, but not the degree of neighbours Ealing Southall or Brent North. There is also a substantial Polish community.
Ealing North is a classic marginal that has largely matched the ebbs and flows of the national political picture (though not one of the best bellwether seats as it remained Labour in 1970), historically it has seen some extreme swings, sometimes thanks to local issues. The new boundaries make it slightly safer for Labour and the Conservatives would require an impressive swing to come close to taking the seat, but then, this is a politically volatile area.
Outgoing MP: Stephen Pound(Labour) born 1948, Hammersmith. Educated at Hertford Grammar and (as a mature student after working as a seaman and bus conducter) the LSE. Formerly area housing manager of Paddington churches housing association. Ealing councillor from 1982-1998. First elected as MP for Ealing North in 1997. PPS to Hazel Blears between 2005 and 2007, when he resigned over the decision to replace Trident. Normally a Labour loyalist and a self-depreciating Parliamentary wit, Pound famously volunteered in 2003 to pilot through a private members bill on a subject voted for by listeners to Radio 4`s Today programme and quoted Dick Tuck in response to listeners` eventual decision to vote for a “Tony Martin Bill” allowing householders to use force against burgulars: “The people have spoken, the bastards” (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Ian Gibb (Conservative) Educated at Bradford University. Concrete engineer. Ealing councillor since 1992. Contested Warwickshire North in 2005.Stephen Pound(Labour) born 1948, Hammersmith. Educated at Hertford Grammar and (as a mature student after working as a seaman and bus conducter) the LSE. Formerly area housing manager of Paddington churches housing association. Ealing councillor from 1982-1998. First elected as MP for Ealing North in 1997. PPS to Hazel Blears between 2005 and 2007, when he resigned over the decision to replace Trident. Normally a Labour loyalist and a self-depreciating Parliamentary wit, Pound famously volunteered in 2003 to pilot through a private members bill on a subject voted for by listeners to Radio 4`s Today programme and quoted Dick Tuck in response to listeners` eventual decision to vote for a “Tony Martin Bill” allowing householders to use force against burgulars: “The people have spoken, the bastards” (more information at They work for you)
Chris Lucas (Liberal Democrat)Christopher Warleigh-Lack (Green)
Dave Furness (BNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105848
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 16.9%
Born outside UK: 32.1%
White: 62.7%
Black: 10%
Asian: 19.3%
Mixed: 4.2%
Other: 3.8%
Christian: 58.3%
Hindu: 8.6%
Muslim: 9.7%
Sikh: 3%
Full time students: 5.3%
Graduates 16-74: 26.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.6%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 20.4% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.8%
“that did not stop the Conservatives winning by an astounding maj of over 15000 in 1987.”
A major influence on that result was Labour winning control of Ealing council in 1986 and putting the rates up by over 60%.
A similar thing happened in Waltham Forest with similar electoral consequences.
Lib Dem PPC Francesco Fruzza is not listed on libdems org site. Lib Dem Voice claims that a PPC selection is to take place on 7 Nov., but no sign of a selection yet. Anybody with further info?
Dave Furness has been selected for the BNP.
Though a Tory victory is possible, I’m sticking to my prediction of a narrow Labour hold here.
Pound’s personal vote may well make the difference.
I don’t really know,
I think it could still be capable of one of those high swings when government’s change (although the former seat swung below average in 1979).
Like HH, I do have a hunch it may be a bit more Labour than average, even now, and Pound will be back by 1,500 – 2,000.
I agree with that kind of majority and the boundary changes may prove crucial as a swing of 7.5% was needed on the old boundaries but a swing over 9% is needed now (T& R suggest a slightly higher Labour lead – over 8,000). Demographic change here just as in neighbouring seats like Harrow West and Brent North mean that the massive movement since the Tories last won an elction to Labour will not be completely undone. I expect there will similarly be below par swings in Harrow East and Hendon but in those cases it will not prevent the Tories from winning.
I agree with all that.
Of the other Lab-Con marginals in London that I think are hardest to call, it seems Hammersmith is now quite likely to be a Con gain. I think Harrow West, Poplar, Feltham and Hayes & H are a bit beyond the Tories’ grasp.
Dagenham & R is a tough one but I think will stay Labour in the end.
The only one I’ve got absolutely no hunch on is Tooting. An absolute toss-up.
Any news on the Lib Dem candidate selection?
I would have thought that with a candidate with a long local history and therefore a reasonably strong personal vote combined with the demographic change in their favour, Labour would only lose this seat if they were in for a very, very bad night (160< seats).
As with much of multicultural urban Britain it will be interesting to see what happens to the Green/Lib Dem vote here. Largely a protest last time against the war (and at the last Ealing borough elections the proposed tram too!) Ian Gibb could be in the perverse position of seeing that protest vote return back to Labour as the Conservative tide rises nationally. (additionally the Lib Dem canidates chief aim has to be trying to win a seat in the locals of the Tories in Cleveland ward, so limiting his resources across the borough).
A lab hold of 3-4,000 seems to be on the cards.
The Liberal Democrats have selected Chris Lucas:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/parliamentary_candidates_detail.aspx?name=Chris_Lucas&pPK=3eb98d1f-a950-409f-9bb3-5ae7b63b1db6