Ealing North
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19823 (46.7%)
Conservative: 12130 (28.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8001 (18.9%)
Other: 2460 (5.8%)
Majority: 7693 (18.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13897 (29.9%)
Labour: 20956 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9148 (19.7%)
Green: 1319 (2.8%)
UKIP: 692 (1.5%)
Other: 495 (1.1%)
Majority: 7059 (15.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13185 (29.3%)
Labour: 25022 (55.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5043 (11.2%)
UKIP: 668 (1.5%)
Green: 1039 (2.3%)
Majority: 11837 (26.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20744 (37.2%)
Labour: 29904 (53.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3887 (7%)
Other: 1191 (2.1%)
Majority: 7170 (12.9%)
Boundary changes: loses large parts of Hanger Hill and Ealing Broadway to the new Ealing Central and Acton seat, while gaining part of Greenford from Ealing Southall
Profile: A north-west London seat, bi-sected by the A40. The seat covers Northolt, Greenford and Perivale and is mostly relatively homogenous semi-detached suburbia built in the 1920s and 1930s as a dormitory for Ealing, along with some slightly later built council housing. There is a substantial ethnic minority community, but not the degree of neighbours Ealing Southall or Brent North. There is also a substantial Polish community.
Ealing North is a classic marginal that has largely matched the ebbs and flows of the national political picture (though not one of the best bellwether seats as it remained Labour in 1970), historically it has seen some extreme swings, sometimes thanks to local issues. The new boundaries make it slightly safer for Labour and the Conservatives would require an impressive swing to come close to taking the seat, but then, this is a politically volatile area.
Current MP: Stephen Pound (Labour) born 1948, Hammersmith. Educated at Hertford Grammar and (as a mature student after working as a seaman and bus conducter) the LSE. Formerly area housing manager of Paddington churches housing association. Ealing councillor from 1982-1998. First elected as MP for Ealing North in 1997. PPS to Hazel Blears between 2005 and 2007, when he resigned over the decision to replace Trident. Normally a Labour loyalist and a self-depreciating Parliamentary wit, Pound famously volunteered in 2003 to pilot through a private members bill on a subject voted for by listeners to Radio 4`s Today programme and quoted Dick Tuck in response to listeners` eventual decision to vote for a “Tony Martin Bill” allowing householders to use force against burgulars: “The people have spoken, the bastards” (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Ian Gibb (Conservative) Educated at Bradford University. Concrete engineer. Ealing councillor since 1992. Contested Warwickshire North in 2005.
Francesco Fruzza (Liberal Democrat) Born Ealing. Educated at Cardinal Wiseman secondary. IT project manager. Contested Ealing North 2001, 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105848
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 16.9%
Born outside UK: 32.1%
White: 62.7%
Black: 10%
Asian: 19.3%
Mixed: 4.2%
Other: 3.8%
Christian: 58.3%
Hindu: 8.6%
Muslim: 9.7%
Sikh: 3%
Full time students: 5.3%
Graduates 16-74: 26.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.6%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 20.4% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.8%
EALING NORTH - prediction 2010
Conservative: 16,003
Labour: 15,999
Liberal Democrat: 7,322
Other: 3,080
Con gain
Majority: 4
This one to have many re-counts.
I hesitate to use the word - but I’m starting to think “troll”…..
I know that this seat can swing more than average, but I don’t think the demography of this seat is such that Labour are likely to lose it from this position.
James, I don’t agree with that prediction - I think something more like;
Labour 19000
Cons 16000
Lib Dem 8000
Others 3000
James’s prediction %
Cons 37.7%
Labour 37.7%
Lib Dem 17.3%
Others 7.3%
The Conservatives could take Ealing North - it is an unpredictable place with lots of floating voters.
Most likely, I’d go for a Labour hold with a reduced majority -
May 2010
*Lab 20,137 43.4% -3.3%
C 18,699 40.3% +11.7%
LD 5,197 11.2% -7.7%
Green 1,624 3.5%
UKIP 742 1.6%
Total votes 46,400
Lab majority 1,438 3.1 %
Lab Hold
Swing 7.5% from Lab to Con
If the GE were to be called now, I’d be broadly of Metron James’ opinion, in that I think Ealing North will be a super-marginal which will be won or lost during the campaign, and the resulting majority is likely to be less than 1,000 votes. If Labour were to return to the polling levels we saw in the summer, I can’t see them prevailing here - but Stephen Pound knows that a good local profile here might just save him. Had the seat retained its 1997 form, he’d be in deeper water.
I don’t think the demographics are that bad for the Tories - the seat is more non-white, but the socio-economic profile hasn’t undergone a huge amount of change in the past few decades. It’s tilted to Labour, but nowhere near as much as Brent North of the harrow seats have.
I disagree with Barnaby on this one, (despite thinking it has tilted a bit to Labour long term), and agree with Tangent, broadly.
The demographics are quite close to the London average, and the non white voters I suspect quite an enterprising bustling lot,
and plenty of floating voters.
But the 2001 result was awful for the Tories - not much repaired in 2005, so Labour still has an edge.
If this comes through on election night as a Tory win (with almost certainly a tiny majority) it probably means Cameron is heading for Downing Street with an overall majority, but not necessarily since we know this seat has swung on many occasions with a magnitude much greater than average.
What will be absolutely crucial is the state of the parties nationally come the election. If Labour are ahead, this is a guaranteed Labour hold. However, if the Tories are five to ten points ahead, pretty much as they are now, then I would expect Labour to narrowly hold it. If they open up a ten point lead, it will be very exciting
In tems of the bad recent history for the Tories in this seat, let me offer my own explanation. Harry Greenway was a very popular Tory MP between 1979 and 1997 and so the 1997 swing was pretty much the London average - this seat is naturally more Labour inclined than the London average. As a result of Greenway not being re-selected for 2001, the Labour-inclined pattern returned and that was why the Tory share fell even more than in 1997. The Tories barely increased their share of the vote nationally in 2005, and that was exactly the same here. In the Tories’ favour next time, Ian Gibb is well known locally so he may be able to enjoy a personal vote.
The Lib Dems have reselected Francesco Fruzza here.
Conservative: 18000
Labour: 17000
Liberal Democrat: 6000
Other: 1500
Majority: 1000
Don’t think so.
More like.
Labour: 18000
Conservative: 16000
Liberal Democrat: 7000
Other: 1500
Majority: 2000
Labour retained this seat in 1970 by 320, and should hold on again by a larger margin. The boundaries are better for Labour than 1955 - 1974 or 1997 - 2010.
Labour does have the edge in this seat, I agree.
But if one was trying to think of a few seats
which would produce a large swing in the event
of a change of government, this is a reasonable bet.
It did produce a rather low swing in 1979, but it’s
provided some unpleasant shocks for both the main
parties since.