Comments on: Ealing Central and Acton

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 11:13:21 +0000

Specifically in Harrow on the HIll there was a split in the Conservative vote by one of the sitting councillors fighting as an Independent. That result itself, though not hugesly shocking was against expectations, but the other wards won were no surprise really nor the fact that labour won a majority. Of all Labour council gains in London in 2010, the only one which surprised me was Enfield which I had not thought likely and was down to a very much better than expected performance in the wards of Enfield North.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 11:10:29 +0000

I think, in answer to Richard, there’s little doubt that central (and parts of West) Ealing have become more “intellectual”. There’s quite an active musical & theatrical scene, much more than in say Harrow or Uxbridge. If you had a ward with the social (including ethnic) composition of Walpole transplanted to Hillingdon or Havering, it would be very safely Conservative, but as it is it’s an ultra-marginal Tory ward. I think that that’s also true of Ealing Common ward though there it’s the LDs who receive the “intellectual” vote, or have done up to now. Perhaps in time Ealing Broadway will become less solidly Tory too, though at the moment there’s little sign of that happening.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 09:53:36 +0000

I think the extent Labour doesn’t turn out in local elections when they are unpopular in Government nationally can be quite dramatic.

In Redbridge, Labour snatched a seat in Clayhall in Ilford North, really from nowhere.

By: richard

richard — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:04:26 +0000

Phil

You have to remember that the previous London borough elections were in 2006, a year when the Conservatives had an overall national lead of 13%.

In 2010 the national Conservative lead was down to 8% so it is no surprise that Labour made gains from the Conservatives that year.

By: Phil

Phil — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 02:11:26 +0000

This is all great analysis and thanks for your responses. I am still curious as to why there was such an enormous swing to Labour in safe Conservative wards in Harrow, like Harrow-on-the-Hill. This wasn’t merely Labour voters turning out in greater numbers in the general election (which hadn’t been the case in 2006) and reducing the Conservative majority, but them actually snatching seats from the Conservatives. Where did this stem from?

By: richard

richard — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 23:45:52 +0000

I’m curious about the very high level of graudates in this constituency.

Has this area moved up the social scale in recent decades in much the same way as Putney and Wimbledon seem to have done?

Because its now a much more educated area than places like Hendon, Harrow and Southgate which seemed to be at a similar social scale a generation ago.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 23:29:31 +0000

Ealing as a whole leans to Labour now in anything other
than a big Tory lead year
mainly because of Ealing North.
It wouldn’t have always been the case, or by much, before 1997 though – Ealing North went through a phase of exaggerating the Tory national position, and earlier on more or less replicating it.
Even in 1994 the Tories were only about 9% behind in votes across the Borough, but lost about half their seats in numerous marginal wards which have regularly changed hands.
In 1979 it probably slightly leaned to Labour though, as there were lowish swings in all 3 seats.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 22:31:21 +0000

Ealing I think it’s fair to see has a natural pro-Labour inclination & the Conservatives only win it when either Labour is unpopular nationally (e.g. 1968, 1982, 2006) or for local reasons (1990). Maybe, in 1978 it was a bit of both. Harrow on the other hand has clearly demographically swung towards Labour, especially the Western half of the borough; Labour has also been helped in local elections by too many Tory voters being corralled into a few very safe wards (Pinner, Pinner S, Hatch End, Stanmore Park, Canons & to some extent Harrow Weald & Belmont) while Labour holds numerous wards by more modest majorities. Most of these – there are a few exceptions – have histories which are dominated by the Conservatives until a few years ago. Thus Labour had fewer votes than the Tories in the borough in 2010 but more seats (Labour has of course outpolled the Tories there in terms of votes in the 3 previous general elections).

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 21:51:13 +0000

I think Harrow would have produced Labour votes in the right places (ward by ward) even on the General Election being more or less replicated.

Ealing would have been vulnerable to a Labour gain even if the Tories had polled better in Ealing North (which they did in the council elections vs the General Election).

Mr Whitehead will I’m sure be along to fill you in on better detail, but I think he thought Labour would gain the councils even if the Tories had made more progress.

By: Phil

Phil — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:34:52 +0000

Why did Harrow and Ealing Councils switch from the Conservatives to Labour after a relatively successful year for them at Parliamentary level? Were there key local issues which culminated in the Tories’ defeat?