Ealing Central and Acton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17944 (38.02%)
Labour: 14228 (30.14%)
Liberal Democrat: 13041 (27.63%)
UKIP: 765 (1.62%)
Green: 737 (1.56%)
Christian: 295 (0.63%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
Majority: 3716 (7.88%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 12655 (32.8%)
Labour: 12571 (32.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11468 (29.7%)
Other: 1876 (4.9%)
Majority: 84 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11059 (27.9%)
Labour: 16579 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9986 (25.2%)
Green: 1999 (5%)
Majority: 5520 (13.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9355 (25.1%)
Labour: 20144 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6171 (16.6%)
UKIP: 476 (1.3%)
Other: 1055 (2.8%)
Majority: 10789 (29%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12405 (25.8%)
Labour: 28052 (58.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5163 (10.7%)
Referendum: 637 (1.3%)
Other: 1807 (3.8%)
Majority: 15647 (32.6%)
Boundary changes: the link between the boroughs of Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham comes to and end, meaning that the new seat loses the parts of the old constituency that fell under the Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham – primarily Shepherd`s Bush and White City. Instead it gains the whole of the divided wards of Ealing Broadway, Ealing Common, Hanger Hill and Walpole.
Profile: The old Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush was an awkward partnership, linking suburban Ealing and Acton with multi-cultural Shepherd`s Bush and the council estates of White city. The new seat is more suburban and Conservative. The main area of Labour strength is the South Acton council estate, currently undergoing a programme of demolition and redevelopment.
In the North the constituency extends into the Park Royal industrial areas, including the Grand Union Canal and the traffic blackspot of the Hanger Lane Gyratory System. The Ealing part of the constituency includes Thames Valley University and the famous Ealing studios.
The notional figures suggest that Ealing Central & Acton will be one of the closest three way marginals in the country. In Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures Ealing Central & Acton has a notional Labour majority, meaning that the mainstream media will treat it as a Labour held seat in terms of whether it is a Gain or a Hold on election night (see also Watford)
Current MP: Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Bassam Mahfouz (Labour) Parliamentary researcher for Karen Buck and Stephen Pound. Ealing councillor.
Jon Ball (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Merchant Taylors School, Crosby, and Hatfield Polytechnic. Manager of film and television production company. Ealing councillor since 2002. Contested Hayes and Harlington in 2005.
Sarah Edwards (Green) Works for Victim Support. Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall 2005, Ealing and Hillingdon 2008 London election.
Julie Carter (UKIP) Born London. Educated Ealing Grammar School and Middlesex University. Student, teacher and administrator.
Suzanne Fernandes (Christian Party) Contested London in 2009 European elections.
Sam Akaki (Independent Ealing Acton Communities Public Services) Born Uganda. Former Parliamentary officer. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105825
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 18.4%
Over 60: 15.6%
Born outside UK: 37.4%
White: 72.6%
Black: 7.4%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 3.8%
Other: 6%
Christian: 56.5%
Hindu: 3%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 8.4%
Sikh: 1.7%
Full time students: 5.7%
Graduates 16-74: 47.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.2%
Owner-Occupied: 56.9%
Social Housing: 17.9% (Council: 9.5%, Housing Ass.: 8.4%)
Privately Rented: 22.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
Tricky one here. I make it a very narrow Con win, by just a couple of hundred votes.
Interesting that the big collapse in the LD vote which many people were predicting didn’t really happen. Their vote did fall but only by 3% and they were only 2.5% behind Labour in second place.
Result: Con win with majority of 3,716.
Votes in the council elections for wards in this constituency were similar to the parliamentary result, although Labour did slightly worse and both the Cons and Lib Dems very slightly better – Con 38.50% Lab 28.64% LD 28.13% Grn 4.13% Others 0.60%. This contrasts with Ealing North where Steve Pound ran strongly ahead of Labour’s council vote.
This is one of many seats where the introduction of AV would be fascinating… I guess the only clue in terms of real votes and where they relocate are the Mayoral elections. Is there any data on how the Lib Dem/Green/UKIP/BNP split for second preferences by constituency in 2008? I appreciate that that’s not a definitive guide, but would be interesting to know…
Of course, any switch to AV would only be very temporary. We would see a rapid adoption of fullblown PR or a return to FPTP following such a mistake being taken to move to AV.
Perhaps some of those relishing the switch to AV should consider that before voting for it.
I think Shaun is probably right.
Some Tories may think AV is the mildest version
and it would be a line in the sand.
What they need to remember is the PR is the only policy the LDs are really passionate about – ahead of any of the other front “political reforms” or foreign policy such as Iraq.
Giving them anything atall will be seen as a sign of love bomb weakness, for more concessions to be extracted.
The Tories have been generous enough and could call their bluff.
Although I am a firm believer in retaining FPTP, I do think AV would lead to more political parties on the ballot paper thus creating more choice which would lead to higher turnout.
What makes AV even harder to predict in a seat like this is the question of whether there would be enough second preferences from the others for the Lib-Dems to overtake Labour in second before the final reallocation. (There’s a similar question with the Tories overtaking Lib-Dems in Oldham East & Saddleworth). I’m guessing not quite in either case, but it does make it hard to predict with any degree of accuracy.
Tonyotim,
Difficult to predict is a massive understatement.
Once we change the system, we have no idea how the first (let alone second, third, etc) preferences will fall.
Under AV, only those seats where the incumbent is already comfortably over 50% of the vote can be called with any confidence.
That applies regardless of the party holding the seat and who is second third etc.
A decent Tory increase.
The LD vote held up here in a way I didn’t expect – as it did in Brentford and Isleworth.
Tonyotim – are you an LD supporter?
Although the LD vote did indeed hold up well, Labour still did better than I expected (I predicted an LD gain). There was little evidence of a concentrated Labour campaign, but the swing was kept to below the national average. If there are no boundary changes, this could be a fascinating contest next time with all 3 parties being in contention.
“Tonyotim – are you an LD supporter?”
No – but I have voted for them in the past. I’m definitely not a supporter of two party politics, and find not much in either Conservative or Labour that attracts me (and I have never voted for either at any election). So under, a system which doesn’t really give much of a chance in most places to the likes of the Greens, my sympathies are probably to see a stronger yellow presence in order to shake up the system a bit. However, in elections where there is a real chance for the Greens, as in next years Scottish elections and local elections, thats where my support and my vote will go.
A good description of the seat here,
very useful.
I thought this was a somewhat less suburban seat actually.
Its a very middle class constituency.
The demographics are similar to Brentford, where the Cosnervatives also did well be London standards.
I think its revealing that it has considerably less council housing that either Hammersmith or Westminster N.
It’s also more middle class and less non-white than Ealing North.
Astonishing increase in the turnout here.
Up 18.3% to 74.3%.
According to the BBC (T&W) calcucations.
Quite a high figure for a London half way out seat.
I noticed all the numerical votes were up quite a bit but hadn’t noticed the percentage rise.
Although the discussion above had already answered my query, stating that this is a slightly more outer seat than I realised, and perhaps a bit more of a settled residential area.
I think it was the inclusion of Horn Lane in Acton which made me not quite think about where most of this seat is.
Horn Lane is about the most unpleasant smaller A roads in London (so apart from the Westway and the Blackwall Tunnel Approach etc).
Yes, the votes of all 3 main parties increased according to both sets of notional figures, although I think that 18.3% is probably an exaggeration based on slightly inaccurate notional figures. In Hammersmith turnout was only up by 7.0%. Perhaps the two figures were actually a bit closer together than that.
I think the turnout figures on the BBC website are wrong. The Ealing Council website gives the turnout here as 67.52% based on a 70,251 electorate and 47,418 issued ballot papers. Still a respectable increase but not a spectacular one. The BBC also seem to have overestimated the turnout in the other two Ealing seata for some reason.
Re council housing, it does have a dearth in most of the Ealing part of the seat, but there is quite a substantial estate in South Acton, and a fair amount in North & central Acton as well. There is also a significant council estate minority in Ealing Common ward, in the far South-West. This seat must be a major Labour target now but will require harder work than it seems to have seen in 2010.
The estate in South Acton is what was used for filming Only Fools and Horses (Mandela House etc). there is also a substantial inter-war estate around East Acton station (a relatively pleasant looking ‘cottage estate’ type of affair.
I wasn’t aware of the bit in Ealing Common ward. With London wards being fairly large it is often the case that quite safe Tory (or at least fairly weak Labour) wards can conceal some substantial pockets of council housing. In this borough I discovered a fairly grim estate in West Ealing which I assumed to be in Hobbayne ward but actually turned out to be in Cleveland. The best example is perhaps Edgware ward in Barnet which is a safe Tory ward but includes the massive and hideous Spur Road estate. Because the ward is so large (and presumably also some differential turnout) the effects barely show up in the voting figures
East Acton station is in Hammersmith though, and the estate you mention is in College Park & Old Oak Ward. (I know, I was there on General Election day). However there is some council housing not far from there over the borough boundary, which I would guess is in East Acton ward. I myself found a decidedly unpreposessing council estate hidden away the other day in West Ealing – or rather I was sent there for work purposes – which may or not be the same one. This one was only just to the North of the A4020 but South of the railway & I suspect that it is in Elthorne ward. The estate you mean is I think in the North of West Ealing – the branch railway line to Greenford is the ward boundary and immediately to the West of it you would be in Hobbayne ward, but maybe that isn’t the estate you mean. Almost the whole of the rest of Cleveland ward is owner-occupied.
Yes there is more of the same on the Acton side of the boundary.
The estate in Cleveland I was thinking of is in Gurnell Grove, opposite the Gurnell Leisure centre. I do know the stuff you see from the railway and always assumed that was Hobbayne because as you say the railway line is the boundary. except according to election-maps it isn’t! The boundary runs the other side of Copley Close so it looks like most of that stuff is in Cleveland too. Frankly if Cleveland is the best ward in Ealing North, I’m not surprised it’s a safe Labour seat.
Ealing as a borough certainly has its share of grim estates (Golf Links may be the worst and one or two in Northolt)
yes Pete Gurnell Grove was the council estate I thought you meant. I have to say some of the Eastern parts of Cleveland ward up by the counstituency boundary with this seat are pretty pleasant, and there are some good streets in the West of the ward too – it doesn’t surprise me that Labour usually loses it comfortably, though its predecessor Argyle was won in the 90s in a by-election.
Barnaby, do you have the figures for the Argyle by-election result in the 90s that Labour won?
I don’t, Peter – but if my memory serves me correctly (which it often, though not always, does) the Labour majority was exactly 100. something like 1,300 to 1,200 perhaps?
Peter Williams:
I think the information you’re looking for is on page 23 of this document:
htttp://data.london.gov.uk/documents/LBCBE_1990-5_TO_1994-5.pdf
The Argyle result (6th Feb 1992):
Ian Gibb, C: 1,841
Anthony Oliver, LabCP: 1,394
Helen McKay, LD: 515
Astra Seibe, Green: 40
I suspect it is probably this one (and Barnaby’s memory is very good as ever)
Argyle LAB gain from CON
29 September 1994
Richardson, Nei l LAB 1,330
Millican, David CON 1,229
Maycock, John B. LD 399
Moore, Michael C.H. NF 71
I do recall noticing Labour had pushed up their majority by 1 more on Ealing Council sometime during 1994/95, after the May 1994 local elections.
By the end of 1994, some polls were showing Labour around 40 points ahead.
My word – I’m really distraught – I was 1 out!
Sir Philip Holland, Conservative MP for the former constituency of Acton from 1959 to 1964, died on 2 June at the age of 94.
Angie Gray MP spoke well after the riots, on tv & in the Commons. She seemed genuinely angry and looked fuming when Stourbridge MP asked a sycophantic Q supporting police cuts!
“The estate in South Acton is what was used for filming Only Fools and Horses (Mandela House etc).”
Was the council flat of Robbie Box’s mum in the 1980s BBC series ‘Big Deal’ located there as well?
Robbie’s girlfriend lives in Oakley Avenue which is in the north-west edge of South Acton ward, very close to Acton Central, Ealing Common and Hanger Hill wards.
I’m not familiar wth that series
“The estate in South Acton is what was used for filming Only Fools and Horses (Mandela House etc).”
I thought from series 3 onwards the filming was all done in Bristol, (and Peckham prior to that)
Under the boundary changes Hobbayne, Elthorne, Cleveland and Northfield join this seat and large parts of Acton are lost. I was surprised to see that the Guardian says that this is notionally Labour.
The Guardian is making the bizarre assumption that all wards vote in the same manner as their constituency.
In this case they’re wrong. They’ve made numerous mistakes because of this, in London their most glaring are having Clapham Common as Labour and Paddington as Conservative.
Yes the Guardian fails to allow for the fact that the removed Acton is more Labour that Ealing Central & Acton as a whole and the parts Ealing coming in from Ealing North and Ealing Southall are more Tory than the respective safe Labour constituencies as a whole.
Why did Harrow and Ealing Councils switch from the Conservatives to Labour after a relatively successful year for them at Parliamentary level? Were there key local issues which culminated in the Tories’ defeat?
I think Harrow would have produced Labour votes in the right places (ward by ward) even on the General Election being more or less replicated.
Ealing would have been vulnerable to a Labour gain even if the Tories had polled better in Ealing North (which they did in the council elections vs the General Election).
Mr Whitehead will I’m sure be along to fill you in on better detail, but I think he thought Labour would gain the councils even if the Tories had made more progress.
Ealing I think it’s fair to see has a natural pro-Labour inclination & the Conservatives only win it when either Labour is unpopular nationally (e.g. 1968, 1982, 2006) or for local reasons (1990). Maybe, in 1978 it was a bit of both. Harrow on the other hand has clearly demographically swung towards Labour, especially the Western half of the borough; Labour has also been helped in local elections by too many Tory voters being corralled into a few very safe wards (Pinner, Pinner S, Hatch End, Stanmore Park, Canons & to some extent Harrow Weald & Belmont) while Labour holds numerous wards by more modest majorities. Most of these – there are a few exceptions – have histories which are dominated by the Conservatives until a few years ago. Thus Labour had fewer votes than the Tories in the borough in 2010 but more seats (Labour has of course outpolled the Tories there in terms of votes in the 3 previous general elections).
Ealing as a whole leans to Labour now in anything other
than a big Tory lead year
mainly because of Ealing North.
It wouldn’t have always been the case, or by much, before 1997 though – Ealing North went through a phase of exaggerating the Tory national position, and earlier on more or less replicating it.
Even in 1994 the Tories were only about 9% behind in votes across the Borough, but lost about half their seats in numerous marginal wards which have regularly changed hands.
In 1979 it probably slightly leaned to Labour though, as there were lowish swings in all 3 seats.
I’m curious about the very high level of graudates in this constituency.
Has this area moved up the social scale in recent decades in much the same way as Putney and Wimbledon seem to have done?
Because its now a much more educated area than places like Hendon, Harrow and Southgate which seemed to be at a similar social scale a generation ago.
This is all great analysis and thanks for your responses. I am still curious as to why there was such an enormous swing to Labour in safe Conservative wards in Harrow, like Harrow-on-the-Hill. This wasn’t merely Labour voters turning out in greater numbers in the general election (which hadn’t been the case in 2006) and reducing the Conservative majority, but them actually snatching seats from the Conservatives. Where did this stem from?
Phil
You have to remember that the previous London borough elections were in 2006, a year when the Conservatives had an overall national lead of 13%.
In 2010 the national Conservative lead was down to 8% so it is no surprise that Labour made gains from the Conservatives that year.
I think the extent Labour doesn’t turn out in local elections when they are unpopular in Government nationally can be quite dramatic.
In Redbridge, Labour snatched a seat in Clayhall in Ilford North, really from nowhere.
I think, in answer to Richard, there’s little doubt that central (and parts of West) Ealing have become more “intellectual”. There’s quite an active musical & theatrical scene, much more than in say Harrow or Uxbridge. If you had a ward with the social (including ethnic) composition of Walpole transplanted to Hillingdon or Havering, it would be very safely Conservative, but as it is it’s an ultra-marginal Tory ward. I think that that’s also true of Ealing Common ward though there it’s the LDs who receive the “intellectual” vote, or have done up to now. Perhaps in time Ealing Broadway will become less solidly Tory too, though at the moment there’s little sign of that happening.
Specifically in Harrow on the HIll there was a split in the Conservative vote by one of the sitting councillors fighting as an Independent. That result itself, though not hugesly shocking was against expectations, but the other wards won were no surprise really nor the fact that labour won a majority. Of all Labour council gains in London in 2010, the only one which surprised me was Enfield which I had not thought likely and was down to a very much better than expected performance in the wards of Enfield North.