Ealing Central and Acton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17944 (38.02%)
Labour: 14228 (30.14%)
Liberal Democrat: 13041 (27.63%)
UKIP: 765 (1.62%)
Green: 737 (1.56%)
Christian: 295 (0.63%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
Majority: 3716 (7.88%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 12655 (32.8%)
Labour: 12571 (32.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11468 (29.7%)
Other: 1876 (4.9%)
Majority: 84 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11059 (27.9%)
Labour: 16579 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9986 (25.2%)
Green: 1999 (5%)
Majority: 5520 (13.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9355 (25.1%)
Labour: 20144 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6171 (16.6%)
UKIP: 476 (1.3%)
Other: 1055 (2.8%)
Majority: 10789 (29%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12405 (25.8%)
Labour: 28052 (58.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5163 (10.7%)
Referendum: 637 (1.3%)
Other: 1807 (3.8%)
Majority: 15647 (32.6%)
Boundary changes: the link between the boroughs of Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham comes to and end, meaning that the new seat loses the parts of the old constituency that fell under the Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham – primarily Shepherd`s Bush and White City. Instead it gains the whole of the divided wards of Ealing Broadway, Ealing Common, Hanger Hill and Walpole.
Profile: The old Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush was an awkward partnership, linking suburban Ealing and Acton with multi-cultural Shepherd`s Bush and the council estates of White city. The new seat is more suburban and Conservative. The main area of Labour strength is the South Acton council estate, currently undergoing a programme of demolition and redevelopment.
In the North the constituency extends into the Park Royal industrial areas, including the Grand Union Canal and the traffic blackspot of the Hanger Lane Gyratory System. The Ealing part of the constituency includes Thames Valley University and the famous Ealing studios.
The notional figures suggest that Ealing Central & Acton will be one of the closest three way marginals in the country. In Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures Ealing Central & Acton has a notional Labour majority, meaning that the mainstream media will treat it as a Labour held seat in terms of whether it is a Gain or a Hold on election night (see also Watford)
Current MP: Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Bassam Mahfouz (Labour) Parliamentary researcher for Karen Buck and Stephen Pound. Ealing councillor.
Jon Ball (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Merchant Taylors School, Crosby, and Hatfield Polytechnic. Manager of film and television production company. Ealing councillor since 2002. Contested Hayes and Harlington in 2005.
Sarah Edwards (Green) Works for Victim Support. Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall 2005, Ealing and Hillingdon 2008 London election.
Julie Carter (UKIP) Born London. Educated Ealing Grammar School and Middlesex University. Student, teacher and administrator.
Suzanne Fernandes (Christian Party) Contested London in 2009 European elections.
Sam Akaki (Independent Ealing Acton Communities Public Services) Born Uganda. Former Parliamentary officer. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105825
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 18.4%
Over 60: 15.6%
Born outside UK: 37.4%
White: 72.6%
Black: 7.4%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 3.8%
Other: 6%
Christian: 56.5%
Hindu: 3%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 8.4%
Sikh: 1.7%
Full time students: 5.7%
Graduates 16-74: 47.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.2%
Owner-Occupied: 56.9%
Social Housing: 17.9% (Council: 9.5%, Housing Ass.: 8.4%)
Privately Rented: 22.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
There were several big surprises for me in the mayoral result detail.
1. The divergence of Bexley and Bromley-
Boris secured a further 1% swing to him in Bromley despite already securing over 80% of the final vote in many wards in 2008. His support in most Bromley wards this year was almost North Korean in its enormity.
However in Bexley there was a big swing from Boris to Ken of 5% or so, in almost all wards (although overall Boris still won the borough comfortably). I’m struggling to explain why people in Sidcup and Bexleyheath swung away from Boris when neighbouring similar voters in Bromley continued to swing to Boris.
2. Big swing to Boris in “intellectual” North London-
In the western wards of Haringey (Highgate, Muswell Hill etc) and also a large proportion of Camden, stretching from Hampstead down to Camden Town, Primrose Hill and Bloomsbury, Boris secured a big swing in his favour and actually won many of these safe Labour/Lib Dem wards on the two party vote when PVs are included.
Does this indicate long term Tory potential in these areas as city people increasingly move in?
3. Big swing to Boris in trendy Docklands-
Ditto point 2 with reference to riverside wards both noth and south. Basically between Tower Hill/London Bridge and the Isle of Dogs/Greenwich there was a big swing to Boris. Boris actually won or was close to winning the 3 or 4 riverside wards in Southwark and Bermondsey between London Bridge and Surrey Docks/Rotherhithe – absolutely amazing. Also the Tories did very well in riverside Greenwich. Downriver of Greenwich town and the Isle of Dogs, the swing was to Ken – massively so in Newham.
I wonder if we will see strong Tory competition in Southwark & Bermondsey 5-10 years from now.
Great analysis! Where did you find the breakdown of this data?
Thanks everyone for the analysis here.
I’d have thought the decline in C support in WWC areas is rather more of a concern to the Tories
than the prospect of gains in (LD?) areas, useful though the latter is,
as it suggests Labour is clawing back ground amongst a group that became very disillusioned with them and (in my view) have shown no real reason to regain that support.
“Great analysis! Where did you find the breakdown of this data?”
There is a spreadsheet on the London Elects website, under 2012 results.
“Thanks everyone for the analysis here.
I’d have thought the decline in C support in WWC areas is rather more of a concern to the Tories
than the prospect of gains in (LD?) areas, useful though the latter is,
as it suggests Labour is clawing back ground amongst a group that became very disillusioned with them and (in my view) have shown no real reason to regain that support.”
You have to understand that so-called “WWC” areas in London are increasingly not. Many have changed since even 2008, where the people who backed Boris last time are still Tory, but they are now Tory in places like Dartford.
As I said on the HWG thread, Boris took the right decision in appealing to an increasingly Middle-Class, ethnically diverse city.
“I’d have thought the decline in C support in WWC areas is rather more of a concern to the Tories”
What do you think explains the swing away from Boris in Bexley? It can’t all be WWC related, as much of Bexley is predominently middle class. Is it down to immigration/demographic change, as in Enfield?
Bexley /Bromley dichotemy not so difficult to resolve….
Bexley has always been cheaper and downscale of Bromley…it is industrial banks of Thames etc. whereas Bromley lush suburbia…therefore the pro-Ken Inner London demographic is more able to move there than it is to most of Bromley.
London is changing at a phenomenal rate. You have to see it to beleive it. Not saying it’s good or bad but it is a fact of life.
Bexley also has form in electing Labour…Labour Council in 2002, 2/3 parliamentary seats 1997-2005 etc.
Bromley does not.
“Bexley has always been cheaper and downscale of Bromley…it is industrial banks of Thames etc. whereas Bromley lush suburbia…therefore the pro-Ken Inner London demographic is more able to move there than it is to most of Bromley”
True for the north of Bexley…but most of the Old Bexley and Sidcup wards do not fit that profile. They are at least as upscale as the less grand wards of Bromley like Bromley Town and Plaistow & Sundridge, where Boris increased his vote.
Interestingly the few Bromley wards where Boris had a swing against him were mostly the ones bordering Bexley – namely Mottingham and the Cray Valley.
Mottingham also borders Lewisham and Greenwich, and the distinction between that estate’s profile and the increasingly diverse estates in Downham and Eltham must be starting to blur…
I agree that Bexley is a bit of a challenge…must be some Borough factors at play. London is interesting as an electoral area as it frequently confounds and contradicts.
Where are you getting the change since 2008 figures from – or have you got both spreadsheets open on a double screen?
I think I agree with HH – Bexley is not all that different from Bromley as a whole,
although it has a somewhat grim feel as you head north of Bexleyheath and approach Erith.
I did see that Boris didn’t win North End (Slade Green) when he did in 2008.
2008 was a terrible year for Labour – although it’s true Ken did well given the circumstances. Nevertheless, the best guide would be to see if the GLA results in Bexley show an above average improvement for Labour since the Borough and GEneral election results in 2010 — (although of course the Mayor results are fascinating).
“You have to understand that so-called “WWC” areas in London are increasingly not. Many have changed since even 2008, where the people who backed Boris last time are still Tory, but they are now Tory in places like Dartford.”
So while the demographic trend is against the Conservatives in outer London the wwc movement will help them in the maginals in Kent, Essex and Hertfordshire. Perhaps especially so if this wwc movement is ‘white flight’ influenced.
This links into something I’ve noticed over the last few years, namely how many ‘cockney’ accents I hear in my part of the world Though I am no way expert enough to know by the accent what part of London or the south-east they originate.
Its possible that if people are leaving London they might go a long way further than Dartford or Watford. The opportunity to realise a profit on house price differentials could also be a factor.
Agreed, Richard. In fact we arguably witnessed the phenomenon you have described at the 2010 general election. The swings in Kent were staggering- up to 11.6% in Dartford; and 12.7% in Sittingbourne and Sheppey.
“In the North the constituency extends into the Park Royal industrial areas”
The constituency description gives me another idea.
I think London and other urban areas are increasinly becoming dominated employment wise between high paid middle class jobs and low paid service jobs.
How many ‘traditional’ wwc jobs are there left in the cities.
There’s still plenty left in the surrounding towns.
Which might be another spur for relocation.
And I suspect in this case wwc also includes many of the lower middle classes as well.
“I wonder if we will see strong Tory competition in Southwark & Bermondsey 5-10 years from now.”
Very possibly but not until after Hughes retires.
I think there’s a lot of evidence from the local elections throughout the country that there has been a substantial swing back to Labour among the WWC just recently. Labour has done quite a lot better in many such areas than in 2011 when in several regions, particularly the Midlands outside the main conurbations, the party didn’t do very well at all, although I accept that in many districts there weren’t elections this year.
With regard to this particular constituency, it’s a disappointment for Labour to have failed to outpoll the Conservatives.
I’d agree with you there Barnaby.
The Cameroons still appear to be targetting the fiscally right but socially left voter.
As the elections show (in particular with the collapse of the LibDems) that demographic isn’t very large.
23% at the last election though.
So if about 9% of that is up for grabs, it’s important who gets the biggest slice of it, and where.
Richard makes an interesting point about the socioeconomic structure in London. This trend is not new. London was still a great industrial city when I was a child (see Jerry White’s history of London in the 20th century for a good account), with the large working class that went with it, much of it highly skilled and well paid. The city is very different now, being almost wholly focused on services with the results that Richard describes.
It has been widely commented on in other threads, but one does feel that the Conservatives are running up a down escalator in London.
Which seats have the areas covered by Ealing Broadway and Ealing Common wards been in? (I think those wards include Ealing town centre, they of course were in the Ealing seat until it was abolished in 1945)
They would then have formed part of the short lived Ealing East seat from 1945 to 1950 and Ealing South thereafter until 1974. The area was then included with Acton although a part of Ealing Broadway (that covered by the old Pitshangar ward) was in Ealing North until 1983 when the whole area was united in Ealing Acton. From 1997 to 2010 Ealing Common was in Ealing Southall while Pitshangar returned to Ealing North which means that the current Ealing Broadway ward was then split between three seats with I think the greater part being in Ealing North, some in Ealing Acton & Shepherds Bush and a small section south of the railway in Ealing Southall
Thank you Pete
Francis Maude’s late dad Angus, resigned this seat in 1958 to become editor of The Sydney Morning Herald! and was succeeded by Brian Batsford who held it until it was abolished in 1974
There was another Maude elected for the Tories in 1945 – Angus’s father perhaps?
Currently working NE of central Ealing. Some parts of Hanger Hill ward, not just those in NW10, are perhaps a little less upmarket than they once were, but I’ve now noticed that the ward comes much closer to Ealing Broadway station than I realised – that is very upmarket & Conservative territory. It’s therefore clear that the ward is likely to stay totally safe Tory for a long time to come. However, I’ve also noticed that former Tory councillor Benjamin Dennehy is now Independent, the only Independent on Ealing council as far as I know.
Answering my own questions above, there’s no evidence that the Maude elected for Exeter in 1945 (surprising Labour didn’t win that seat that year) was related to Angus or Francis Maude.
Census results – white British, 2001 / 2011:
Acton Central: 47.2% / 34.8%
Ealing Broadway: 59.4% / 44.8%
Ealing Common: 59.2% / 44.5%
East Acton: 39.8% / 27.1%
Hanger Hill: 47.8% / 31.8%
South Acton: 45.9% / 32.1%
Southfield: 64.5% / 56.5%
Walpole: 60.9% / 50.0%
TOTAL: 52.7% / 39.3%
White overall, Ealing Central & Acton:
2001: 72.6%
2011: 63.3%
This is a Conservative seat with a white British population of 39.3% in 2011. Does that mean the Tories may find it hard to hold in 2015?
Looking at these numbers, you might well ask how the Conservatives won the seat at all in 2010.
One possibility is that the eligibility to vote, registration and turnout rates of the non-white voters is low. This may also be the case for some of the white non-British voters too – i.e. central and eastern European immigrants.
Yes and fully 20% here are Whites who are other than British or Irish – there are quite alot of Australians and South Africans in this area who may qualify to vote but may tend not to do so in large numbers but there will be a lot of East and west Europeans who wouldn’t qualify. White British probably form a majority of the electorate still. It would be interesting and useful to have ethnic figures for the electorate as well as the population. Obviously the larger numbers of children amongst some ethnic minorities means that a larger proportion of them will also be ineligible to vote for that reason
Why do people think this area has swung to the tories so much since 1997 (even allowing for a positive boundary change)
I don’t think it has all that much compared with the average. I estimate Labour’s lead in 1997 on these boundaries as about 17% (50 / 33) so the swing has been a bout 12% compared with 10% nationally but the Conservative vote is up about 5% which is about the national average. So one reason is that Labour have shedded a disproportionate amount of support to the LDs. Certainly though parts of the seat have become increasingly gentrified and expensive, such as Bedford Park (Southfield ward) and areas like Ealing Common which were always nice but perhaps had a larger public sector element in the past which is being priced out now. Walpole ward has clearly trended Tory over recent years as this was a ward Labour held in their disastrous year of 1990 but which the Tories won in 2010 – the only ward in Ealing where this was the case