Ealing Central and Acton
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 12655 (32.8%)
Labour: 12571 (32.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11468 (29.7%)
Other: 1876 (4.9%)
Majority: 84 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11059 (27.9%)
Labour: 16579 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9986 (25.2%)
Green: 1999 (5%)
Majority: 5520 (13.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9355 (25.1%)
Labour: 20144 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6171 (16.6%)
UKIP: 476 (1.3%)
Other: 1055 (2.8%)
Majority: 10789 (29%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12405 (25.8%)
Labour: 28052 (58.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5163 (10.7%)
Referendum: 637 (1.3%)
Other: 1807 (3.8%)
Majority: 15647 (32.6%)
Boundary changes: the link between the boroughs of Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham comes to and end, meaning that the new seat loses the parts of the old constituency that fell under the Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham – primarily Shepherd`s Bush and White City. Instead it gains the whole of the divided wards of Ealing Broadway, Ealing Common, Hanger Hill and Walpole.
Profile: The old Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush was an awkward partnership, linking suburban Ealing and Acton with multi-cultural Shepherd`s Bush and the council estates of White city. The new seat is more suburban and Conservative. The main area of Labour strength is the South Acton council estate, currently undergoing a programme of demolition and redevelopment.
In the North the constituency extends into the Park Royal industrial areas, including the Grand Union Canal and the traffic blackspot of the Hanger Lane Gyratory System. The Ealing part of the constituency includes Thames Valley University and the famous Ealing studios.
The notional figures suggest that Ealing Central & Acton will be one of the closest three way marginals in the country. In Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures Ealing Central & Acton has a notional Labour majority, meaning that the mainstream media will treat it as a Labour held seat in terms of whether it is a Gain or a Hold on election night (see also Watford)
Outgoing MP: Andrew Slaughter(Labour) born 1960, London. Barrister specialising in criminal law. Former leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council. Contested Uxbridge by-election in 1997, First elected for Ealing, Acton and Shepherd`s Bush in 2005. At the next election he will follow the Shepherd`s Bush part of his constituency into the new Hammersmith seat (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Bassam Mahfouz (Labour) Parliamentary researcher for Karen Buck and Stephen Pound. Ealing councillor.
Jon Ball (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Merchant Taylors School, Crosby, and Hatfield Polytechnic. Manager of film and television production company. Ealing councillor since 2002. Contested Hayes and Harlington in 2005.
Sarah Edwards (Green) Works for Victim Support. Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall 2005, Ealing and Hillingdon 2008 London election.
Vanessa Crichton (UKIP)
Tim Carpenter (Libertarian)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105825
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 18.4%
Over 60: 15.6%
Born outside UK: 37.4%
White: 72.6%
Black: 7.4%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 3.8%
Other: 6%
Christian: 56.5%
Hindu: 3%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 8.4%
Sikh: 1.7%
Full time students: 5.7%
Graduates 16-74: 47.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.2%
Owner-Occupied: 56.9%
Social Housing: 17.9% (Council: 9.5%, Housing Ass.: 8.4%)
Privately Rented: 22.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
Thanks. From that it looks like the Tories shouldn’t have much problem. Green vote is higher than I expected.
The LDs probably third,
possibly about 15%.
Joe, I can’t quite see the Lib Dem vote being halfed as your suggesting though they being 3rd is about right.
Sorry Shaun. There is no incumbent.
Con first, Labour second, I believe.
I think the Lib Dems will be more like 20-23% here, cannot see the Conservatives getting more than about 41%
UKIP candidate = Vanessa Crichton
It’s fairly common for an MP to sit in the commons with an former MP for their constituency. To sit with two former MP’s is more unusual but George Young actually sat with three former Acton MP’s between 1974 and 1992 -
Philip Holland 1959 – 1964 (elected to Carlton 1970)
Kenneth Baker 1967 – 1970 (elected to St Marylebone 1971)
Nigel Spearing 1970 – Feb 1974 (elected to Newham South 1974)
George Young 1974 – 1997
The only similar occurance was when Raymond Robertson was elected between 1992 to 1997 to Aberdeen South, to sit with -
Donald Dewar 1966 – 1970 (elected to Glasgow Garscadden 1978)
Iain Sproat 1970 – 1983 (elected to Harwich 1992)
Gerald Malone 1983 – 1987 (elected to Winchester 1992)
There’s more scope if you include by-election winners.
For example Michael Fabricant and Sylvia Heal both sit in the Commons at the moment and both have been MP for Mid Staffordshire (which is now Lichfield more than anywhere else). Sylvia Heal is MP for Halesowen & Stourbridge.
I thought Heal was MP for Halesowen and Rowley Regis ?
yes Stourbridge is of course a separate seat. Before 1997 there was a Halesowen & Stourbridge seat.
Three way marginals are always difficult to fight – as well as to predict! If the notional figures are about right for 2005, then the 2010 result is likely to see some decline in the Labour vote. Where will those votes go? Who knows – but the Lib Dem website looks a lot more clued up and determined than many I’ve seen!
Is that the Ealing Central and Acton Lib Dem website where the latest item under “Recent News from Ealing Central and Acton” is dated 8th June 2007? Doesn’t look that clued up or determined to me. Both Bassam Mahfouz and Angie Bray regularly update their websites.
Three waay marginals are difficul to predict, but this isn’t one of them. Easy Conservative win
I think the LDs will do a bit better here than most people expect, but that’s just my opinion. I don’t have anything to support it.
Hi Ealing bloke… the site I was looking at was http://ealinglibdems.org.uk/... still seems to be bursting with activity to me