Ealing Central and Acton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17944 (38.02%)
Labour: 14228 (30.14%)
Liberal Democrat: 13041 (27.63%)
UKIP: 765 (1.62%)
Green: 737 (1.56%)
Christian: 295 (0.63%)
Others: 190 (0.4%)
Majority: 3716 (7.88%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 12655 (32.8%)
Labour: 12571 (32.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11468 (29.7%)
Other: 1876 (4.9%)
Majority: 84 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11059 (27.9%)
Labour: 16579 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9986 (25.2%)
Green: 1999 (5%)
Majority: 5520 (13.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9355 (25.1%)
Labour: 20144 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6171 (16.6%)
UKIP: 476 (1.3%)
Other: 1055 (2.8%)
Majority: 10789 (29%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12405 (25.8%)
Labour: 28052 (58.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5163 (10.7%)
Referendum: 637 (1.3%)
Other: 1807 (3.8%)
Majority: 15647 (32.6%)
Boundary changes: the link between the boroughs of Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham comes to and end, meaning that the new seat loses the parts of the old constituency that fell under the Borough of Hammersmith & Fulham – primarily Shepherd`s Bush and White City. Instead it gains the whole of the divided wards of Ealing Broadway, Ealing Common, Hanger Hill and Walpole.
Profile: The old Ealing Acton and Shepherd`s Bush was an awkward partnership, linking suburban Ealing and Acton with multi-cultural Shepherd`s Bush and the council estates of White city. The new seat is more suburban and Conservative. The main area of Labour strength is the South Acton council estate, currently undergoing a programme of demolition and redevelopment.
In the North the constituency extends into the Park Royal industrial areas, including the Grand Union Canal and the traffic blackspot of the Hanger Lane Gyratory System. The Ealing part of the constituency includes Thames Valley University and the famous Ealing studios.
The notional figures suggest that Ealing Central & Acton will be one of the closest three way marginals in the country. In Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures Ealing Central & Acton has a notional Labour majority, meaning that the mainstream media will treat it as a Labour held seat in terms of whether it is a Gain or a Hold on election night (see also Watford)
Current MP: Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Angie Bray (Conservative) born 1953, London. Educated at Abbey Preparatory School and St Andrews University. Member of the London Assembly for West Central Constituency and Leader of the Conservative Group on the London Assembly since 2006. Formerly a reporter for LBC radio, head of Broadcasting at CCO and public affairs consultant. Contested East Ham in 1997.
Bassam Mahfouz (Labour) Parliamentary researcher for Karen Buck and Stephen Pound. Ealing councillor.
Jon Ball (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Merchant Taylors School, Crosby, and Hatfield Polytechnic. Manager of film and television production company. Ealing councillor since 2002. Contested Hayes and Harlington in 2005.
Sarah Edwards (Green) Works for Victim Support. Contested Ealing and Hillingdon in 2004 London Assembly election. Contested Ealing Southall 2005, Ealing and Hillingdon 2008 London election.
Julie Carter (UKIP) Born London. Educated Ealing Grammar School and Middlesex University. Student, teacher and administrator.
Suzanne Fernandes (Christian Party) Contested London in 2009 European elections.
Sam Akaki (Independent Ealing Acton Communities Public Services) Born Uganda. Former Parliamentary officer. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105825
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 18.4%
Over 60: 15.6%
Born outside UK: 37.4%
White: 72.6%
Black: 7.4%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 3.8%
Other: 6%
Christian: 56.5%
Hindu: 3%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 8.4%
Sikh: 1.7%
Full time students: 5.7%
Graduates 16-74: 47.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.2%
Owner-Occupied: 56.9%
Social Housing: 17.9% (Council: 9.5%, Housing Ass.: 8.4%)
Privately Rented: 22.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
Although the LD vote did indeed hold up well, Labour still did better than I expected (I predicted an LD gain). There was little evidence of a concentrated Labour campaign, but the swing was kept to below the national average. If there are no boundary changes, this could be a fascinating contest next time with all 3 parties being in contention.
“Tonyotim – are you an LD supporter?”
No – but I have voted for them in the past. I’m definitely not a supporter of two party politics, and find not much in either Conservative or Labour that attracts me (and I have never voted for either at any election). So under, a system which doesn’t really give much of a chance in most places to the likes of the Greens, my sympathies are probably to see a stronger yellow presence in order to shake up the system a bit. However, in elections where there is a real chance for the Greens, as in next years Scottish elections and local elections, thats where my support and my vote will go.
A good description of the seat here,
very useful.
I thought this was a somewhat less suburban seat actually.
Its a very middle class constituency.
The demographics are similar to Brentford, where the Cosnervatives also did well be London standards.
I think its revealing that it has considerably less council housing that either Hammersmith or Westminster N.
It’s also more middle class and less non-white than Ealing North.
Astonishing increase in the turnout here.
Up 18.3% to 74.3%.
According to the BBC (T&W) calcucations.
Quite a high figure for a London half way out seat.
I noticed all the numerical votes were up quite a bit but hadn’t noticed the percentage rise.
Although the discussion above had already answered my query, stating that this is a slightly more outer seat than I realised, and perhaps a bit more of a settled residential area.
I think it was the inclusion of Horn Lane in Acton which made me not quite think about where most of this seat is.
Horn Lane is about the most unpleasant smaller A roads in London (so apart from the Westway and the Blackwall Tunnel Approach etc).
Yes, the votes of all 3 main parties increased according to both sets of notional figures, although I think that 18.3% is probably an exaggeration based on slightly inaccurate notional figures. In Hammersmith turnout was only up by 7.0%. Perhaps the two figures were actually a bit closer together than that.
I think the turnout figures on the BBC website are wrong. The Ealing Council website gives the turnout here as 67.52% based on a 70,251 electorate and 47,418 issued ballot papers. Still a respectable increase but not a spectacular one. The BBC also seem to have overestimated the turnout in the other two Ealing seata for some reason.