Durham North West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8766 (20.01%)
Labour: 18539 (42.31%)
Liberal Democrat: 10927 (24.94%)
BNP: 1852 (4.23%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.87%)
Independent: 2472 (5.64%)
Majority: 7612 (17.37%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21307 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7867 (19.9%)
Conservative: 6460 (16.4%)
Other: 3864 (9.8%)
Majority: 13440 (34%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6463 (16.4%)
Labour: 21312 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7869 (19.9%)
Other: 3865 (9.8%)
Majority: 13443 (34%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8193 (20.9%)
Labour: 24526 (62.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5846 (14.9%)
Other: 661 (1.7%)
Majority: 16333 (41.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7101 (15.3%)
Labour: 31855 (68.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4991 (10.8%)
Referendum: 2372 (5.1%)
Majority: 24754 (53.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Pat Glass (Labour) Born North West Durham. Government Education Adviser.
Michelle Tempest (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. PsychiatristPat Glass (Labour) Born North West Durham. Government Education Adviser. 
Owen Temple (Liberal Democrat) Durham county councillor.
Andrew McDonald (UKIP) Michael Stewart (BNP)Watts Stelling (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84564
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 1.4%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 85%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.9%
Owner-Occupied: 70.6%
Social Housing: 22.5% (Council: 18.6%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.9%
I have a sneaky feeling that the winner of the Labour selection here may be none other than Peter Mandelson!
Fingers crossed eh Matt, but I wouldn’t believe everything you read on right-wing blogs if I were you!
From the Telegraph
“Speaking to Sky News, Lord Mandelson said he was “officially ruling out” any chance of seeking the Labour leadership.
He said: “I am a member of the House of Lords. There is no opportunity for me to divest myself of my life peerage. A peerage is for life. A life peerage is a life peerage.”
Asked whether he was ruling himself out of any future contest, he said: “It is me officially ruling it out.”"
I’m not sure how the voters in this seat would react to Peter Mandelson as their candidate. Obviously it’s a very safe Labour area, and quite Old Labour at that, but it’s often overlooked just how popular he was in Hartlepool, and how impressive his result was in 2001.
Shame I would have liked to see the Prince of Darkness back in hte Commons. But he’s a very smart guy and I’m sure he’s got something else up his sleave!!!!
No return for Peter Mandelson (or any other man!) here, as its an AWS!! Barbara Roche maybe?
I’ve heard some members of the CLP are extremely unhappy with the decision to have an AWS here!!!
Its more than that – the local CLP as a whole has rejected the imposition of an AWS;
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/4663151.Urgent_talks_appeal_over_all_female_shortlist_ruling/
Oh dear – looks like an AWS is coming after all – question is, will anyone feel strong enough about it to stand as an Independent;
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/4756189.Gun_held_to_heads__says_constituency_chairman/
I wonder if, given that Darlington has selected a woman, that the NEC will relent and allow an open shortlist here.
The Tories might beat the Lib Dems into third place here.
The Northern Echo has a piece (you can see it online) with the applicants for the labour selection.
The wife of the angry CLP chairman quoted in the article linked above by Matt has applied
The Tory vote was incredibly constant here between 1983 and 1992:
1983 – 12,779
1987 – 12,785
1992 – 12,747
The candidate in 1992 was Theresa May.
Labour shortlist:
Liz Twist, Anna Turley, Pat Glass, Lisa Homan, Lauren Todd Ann Pettifor
Selection on January 23
I would like to see Liz Twist succeed here.
She was short-listed in Houghton and Sunderland South but her vote in the final selection was squeezed by two other very strong candidates.
Eartmother,
Good to see you on DNW. I do not agree with AWS as many Labour people dont either. Is it me or what, but I am unable to comment on our own seat Sunderland Central ?rk
ANDY
I don’t agree with AWS either but it has been enforced on this constituency as with others we know of.
What’s gone wrong with Sunderland Central then?
I guess the good news is, whichever of the candidates are unsuccessful, they have an equally safe seat to apply for in Tyneside North, knowing they won’t have to face any male competition
Pat Glass won Labour selection.
She’s a member of Lanchester Parish Council
Congratulations to Pat Glass.
The Durham N.W. members have made an excellent choice.
Another seat where Liz Twist has failed to get selected – bet she’ll pop up on the Tyneside North shortlist!
You have a blogger* and former Labour parish councillor in Lanchester, now independent, called David Lindsay who keeps announcing his intention to stand at the general election in North West Durham. For instance at http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidlindsey/100012669/why-i-am-standing-for-parliament/ . I was wondering what his local reputation is like. Any chance of saving his deposit?
* http://davidaslindsay.blogspot.com/
What happened to the Independant candidate who stood here in 2005 (Watts Stelling?)
Lab Hold= 8,000 maj
Watts Stelling is standing again as I’ve just seen a poster for him in the middle of Consett. This will make Labour’s job easier, as all he’ll end up doing is splitting the anti Labour vote, which I think would have coalesced around Owen Temple (the Lib Dems did very well in the last Durham CC elections in this constituency).
Lab Hold
Maj 11 300
Lab maj 9,500
Labour hold. Shame really. Even though I am a conservative voter (in another constituency, live elsewhere now), would love to see Owen Temple soundly defeat the labour candidate. Very good local councillor, would be a very effective constituency MP.
Latest local poll gives Lib Dem a .5% lead. Old Labour is dying in it’s heartland.
I think the result might be closer. There are many more Lib Dem posters than Labour posters in Consett. I would normally vote Tory in this seat, but many of my Labour friends are switching to the Lib Dems. Owen Temple is very popular and has attracted praise for his opposition to the siting of a new academy, which the Labour county council is dictating against local opinion. Owen Temple also topped the poll in the last local elections and the Lib Dems have a strong history in Wear Valley DC.
LAB HOLD
Seats like this are just going to get more like more and more marginal between the tories and labour. C.f. Brighton Kemptown going the other way
LDs moved up slightly more than Tories though,
although both were significant.
I’m interesetd in your comment Joe,
what sort of trends or changes in the area are afoot ?
Labour’s hold seems to be weakening here. But it seems that both the Lib Dems and the Tories are trying to make inroads – surely there is only room for one, if there is to be a serious challenge.
But it could be Labour recovers several points, depending on the political situation over the next few years.
It’ll be interesting to see what effect boundary changes have here as Durham will lose 1 seat. Moving the boundaries west to Stanley will make this much safer for Labour. Moving them south to take in some of Teesdale in a possible Durham West seat would probably cause the Conservatives to supplant the Liberals in second place. A third option is to move towards Chopwell in the Blaydon Seat to create a possible Derwent Valley seat. I would be very surprised if the Durham – Northumberland border was crossed.
All Durham Labour MPs aren’t old and have entered the Commons quite recently. So I guess none of them would like to retire. I wonder who will be the one who will get the chop. I guess much could depend from the outcome of boundary review (how the new seats are compared to the previous constituencies)
It looks likely that Sedgefield will be dismembered and shared out amongst its neighbours. Durham NW gains a few areas from City of Durham and loses other areas to Durham North.
There is a precedent for that – there wasn’t a Sedgefield constituency between 1974 & 1983 either.
That would put Labour one seat down,
assuming it’s done on a County basis.
But it would help make the City of Durham completely safe (which it may be already given the 2010 result and subsequent LD>Lab swings).
Joe – I agree. I think the Lib Dem high point in Durham City has been and gone. There is a strong anti Tory sentiment in the North East and the Lib Dems will not be forgiven for joining the coalition. Wherever the boundaries are drawn all 6 seats will be safely Labour.
I’ve made a rather amateurish attempt at predicting the proposed new seat and added the 2008 election results up in these wards. I’ve ignored candidates not in the 3 main parties (Independents very strong in some wards) and, as the council seats are multi-member, I’ve only counted the votes for the leading candidate for each party. I get:
Con: 8019
Lab: 7649
Liberal: 3628.
No doubt methodolgy is highly flawed, but this seems like a very interesting potential seat and could produce a Tory seat in County Durham. Labour inclined Consett is sandwiched between Conservative South Northumberland and Barnard Castle.
Phillip’s figures are interesting – I hope he posts again.
I’ll have to try to work out the same for 2012 – Labour must have a lead again though.
Durham NW 2015 most likely
Lab 52.8 (+10.5)
Con 20.8 (+0.8)
LD 15 (-9.9)
UKIP 5
others 6.4
Turnout 62.5%