City of Durham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6146 (13.29%)
Labour: 20496 (44.31%)
Liberal Democrat: 17429 (37.68%)
BNP: 1153 (2.49%)
UKIP: 856 (1.85%)
Independent: 172 (0.37%)
Majority: 3067 (6.63%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 20928 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 17654 (39.8%)
Conservative: 4179 (9.4%)
Other: 1603 (3.6%)
Majority: 3274 (7.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7167 (17.3%)
Labour: 23254 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9813 (23.7%)
UKIP: 1252 (3%)
Majority: 13441 (32.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8598 (17.5%)
Labour: 31102 (63.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7499 (15.3%)
Referendum: 1723 (3.5%)
Other: 213 (0.4%)
Majority: 22504 (45.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Co-terminous with the City of Durham itself, it includes Durham itself – a small medieval city dominated by its cathedral and ancient university – and the surrounding villages such as Waterhouses, Ludworth, Brandon, Coxhoe, Sherburn.
A Labour seat since 1935, but became a marginal seat with the SDP in the 1980s and, more recently from the Liberal Democrats. While Durham itself is strongly Liberal Democrat (and the City council is now controlled by the Lib Dems), the outlying villages are largely former mining areas and in many cases monolithically Labour.
Current MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods(Labour) born 1957, Belfast. Educated at the University of Ulster. Former lecturer and professor at the University of Northumberland. Former Oxford councillor and Newcastle councillor. PPS to Hilary Armstrong (more information at They work for you)
Nick Varley (Conservative) Student at the University of Hull.Roberta Blackman-Woods(Labour) born 1957, Belfast. Educated at the University of Ulster. Former lecturer and professor at the University of Northumberland. Former Oxford councillor and Newcastle councillor. PPS to Hilary Armstrong (more information at They work for you)Carol Woods (Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at the University of Hull. Runs a holiday cottage business. Durham councillor since 2003. Contested Durham in 2001 and 2005.Nigel Coghill-Marshall (UKIP)Ralph Musgrove (BNP) Jonathan Collings (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87709
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 18.7%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 4.7%
White: 97.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 79.7%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 14.5%
Graduates 16-74: 22%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.1%
Owner-Occupied: 67.6%
Social Housing: 23.3% (Council: 20%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 6.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 1.7%
[...] The UK Polling Report has released its estimates of the effect of boundary changes could have at the next election. More specifically they have tried to work out what difference there would have been had 2005’s votes been cast in the 2009(?) constituencies. Trying to fathom the effects of moving wards from one seat to another can be a bit tricky, particularly in areas where candidates have strong personal, rather than party, votes (eg Gordon in 1997). The voters of Durham City are lucky – no boundary changes mean people know exactly how many votes each party got and can base any tactical voting on hard fact, not best guess. Elsewhere in the North East the biggest interest is in Newcastle where the current Newcastle Central seat which saw a very good result for the Lib Dems in 2005 is split up. Newcastle East and Newcastle North which take over much of the seat come in now as Lib Dem targets 84 and 78, significantly below Blaydon (49) and Durham (23). The new seat called Newcastle Central is extremely different from the old one, following the radical decision that Newcastle Central should actually consist of central Newcastle. [...]
With Tony B still next door and the voters having a chance to send him a message on his time in office I think this will be a Lib Dem seat after the next G.E.
TB will not be standing at the next GE. Can see the Labour vote increasing due to Roberta Blackman-Woods been a very good MP.
The SDP almost won here in 1983.
One gets the impression this is a more prosperous seat than those surrounding it.
Labour should be able to hold on, but expect a fight.
Can’t see where the Liberal Democrats would get the extra votes really. Tories are way back in third – if one goes by last time – and would probably add on votes reflected by a national swing (although lower here).
Centre/left voters who might be tempted by the Lib Dems will probably rally to Labour because of a Tory threat elsewhere in the country/national result.
I believe that this is now the most marginal seat in the North East isn’t it?
The Tories polled 31% here in 1983 (coming 3rd), so their vote is down by 22%. They really should be trying to get back up to 20% again, as a start.
This is a seat of two parts. The city of Durham itself is where most of the LibDem vote is to be found. It is relatively affluent and middle-class. The Tories long ago vanished as a force and the LibDems dominate at local govt level.
The problem facing the LibDems is the presence of the pit villages that ring Durham, ie, Sherburn, Coxhoe, etc., and have a very resilient Labour vote. The LibDems have failed to crack these at local govt level.
My guess is that the LibDems have peaked and that the new Labour MP should hold on next time round.
Conservatives should tactically vote here in 09/10 to unseat Labour.
Despite the general drop in LibDem support in the national polls, I think there is a chance they could make this another university LibDem seat – as in the Oxbridge constituencies – due to the high proportion of student voters with a dislike for incumbency.
It’s too close to call though.
Sorry, I meant all Oxbridge seats for the exception of Oxford East – but even that is looking precarious for Labour too.
SDP Lib alliance came very close in 1983 and 1987 , only to collapse in 1992.
Perhaps their vote may be more sustainable next time!
This seat is unlikely to swap to the Liberals next time for a number of factors.
Student vote is not as consolidated as in the other university towns; the student vote is more likely to be Conservative then liberal and more likely to vote via postal then within the area. The major issues annoying students were the war and tuituin fees where the Liberals had clear positions, these issues will not be as major at the next election. The resurgence of a moderate conservative party will inevitably see a small movement back to the tories (who were really squeezed in 2005), and the weakness of the current liberal leadership. Durham City is also s lib dem controlled council having been in nominal control since 2003. This will inevitable (irrelevent of party affiliation) lead to it becoming tarnished with scandal or the repository of local annoyance (as the former Labour administration was pre-2003) – which could damage the Lib dem candidate. The local Labour MP is also a parliamentary incumbent and hence more visible then in 2005, when she was replacing the then MP Gerry Steinberg.
The above factors weaken the liberal position and strengthen the Labour & tory position.
If this seat were to be Liberal it would have done so in 2005.
I agree with Tristan. The almost monolithic Labour vote in the ex-pit villages & small towns makes this a very difficult gain for the Lib Dems. And with grants returning in England, for a start, and the likely reduction in saliency of the Iraq question Labour is likely to see a slight improvement in its standing amongst students.
Aggregate results for May locals for this constituency were :-
LibDem 12806 Lab 10621 Con 1166 Others 1165
No sign of any Conservative recovery there .