Dunfermline and West Fife
2010 Results:
Conservative: 3305 (6.75%)
Labour: 22639 (46.25%)
Liberal Democrat: 17169 (35.08%)
SNP: 5201 (10.63%)
UKIP: 633 (1.29%)
Majority: 5470 (11.17%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 20111 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8549 (20.2%)
SNP: 8026 (18.9%)
Conservative: 4376 (10.3%)
Other: 1332 (3.1%)
Majority: 11562 (27.3%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Dunfermline West.
2001 Result
Conservative: 3166 (10.2%)
Labour: 16370 (52.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4832 (15.6%)
SNP: 5390 (17.4%)
UKIP: 471 (1.5%)
Other: 746 (2.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4606 (12.6%)
Labour: 19338 (53.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4963 (13.6%)
SNP: 6984 (19.2%)
Referendum: 543 (1.5%)
Majority: 12354 (33.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A Scottish seat facing Falkirk and Linlithgow across the Firth of Forth, the seat includes the Forth Bridge and the Forth Road Bridge, the tolls on which are an important local issue.
This was once a mining area, an area of textile mills and of shipbuilding – all industries that have fallen away or continue to struggle. Flooding of Longannet mine, set up to supply the Longannet power station in the constituency, the second largest in the UK, effectively ended deep mining in the area in 2002. The power station now relies upon coal being imported into the area.
The two large population centres are Dunfermline itself and the industrial port of Rosyth. Dunfermline is a historic town, a past capital of Scotland, with an Abbey containing the burial sites of past Scottish kings. Rosyth is the site of the now privatised Rosyth Dockard. It formerly refitted nuclear submarines, now being redeveloped. The dockyard will also be one of the sites where the two new aircraft carriers HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales will be built.
To the west the seat is more rural, containing small coastal towns like Kincardine (the site of the Scottish police training college), and former mining villages like Valleyfield. Even the inland villages are normally reliably Labour – the Liberal Democrats and SNP`s strength normally comes from Dunfermline itself.
The seat and its predecessors have traditionally returned Labour MPs (though Dunfermline West was briefly represented by the SNP after Dick Douglas defected in 1990), but following the death of Rachel Squire in 2006 the ensueing by-election was won by the Liberal Democrats, no doubt to the to the chagrin of the constituency`s most well-known resident, then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown.
Current MP: Thomas Docherty (Labour) Public affairs officer for BNFL. Contested South of Scotland 2003 Scottish Parliament elections. Contested North Tayside 2001
Belinda Hacking (Conservative) NHS Clinical PsychologistThomas Docherty (Labour) Public affairs officer for BNFL. Contested South of Scotland 2003 Scottish Parliament elections. Contested North Tayside 2001
Willie Rennie(Liberal Democrat) born 1967, Fife. Educated at the University of Paisley. Former Chief Executive of the Scottish Liberal democrats and party chief of staff in the Scottish Parliament. First elected as MP for Dunfermline and West Fife in the 2006 by-election. Junior defence spokesman 2006-2007, chair of Parliamentary campaigns team since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Joe McCall (SNP)Otto Inglis (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88992
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 19.1%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 57.6%
Graduates 16-74: 17.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31%
Owner-Occupied: 69.3%
Social Housing: 23.9% (Council: 19.8%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.5%
2006 By-election
The Dunfermline and West Fife by-election was held on the 9th February 2006 following the death of Rachel Squire. It was won by the Liberal Democrats on a large swing, despite the party being in a period of strife at a national level due to the enforced resignation of Charles Kennedy.
By-election result
Willie Rennie (Liberal Democrat) 12301 (35.8%)
Catherine Stihler (Labour) 10591 (30.6%)
Douglas Chapman (SNP) 7261 (21.0%)
Carrie Ruxton (Conservative) 2702 (7.8%)
John McAllion (SSP) 537 (1.6%)
George Hargreaves (Scottish Christian) 411 (1.2%)
Tom Minogue (Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls) 374 (1.1%)
Ian Borland (UKIP) 208 (0.6%)
Dick Rodgers (Common Good) 103 (0.2%)
Majority: 1800 (5.2%)
By-election Candidates: 
Ian Borland (UKIP) born 1947, Elderslie. Educated at Broughton Secondary High School. Insurance broker. Contested Dunfermline and West Fife 2005.
Douglas Chapman (SNP) Fife councillor 1997-1999. Contested Dunfermline West in 1999 Scottish Parliamentary elections. Contested Dunfermline and West Fife 2005.
George Hargreaves (Scottish Christian) born George Jackman in 1958. Educated at Woolverstone Hall School and Oxford University. Former songwriter, most famously penning Sinitta`s “So Macho”, now Pastor of the Hephizibah Christian Centre, Hackney. Contested Walthamstow for the Referendum Party in 1997. Contested 2004 Birmingham Hodge Hill by-election for Operation Christian Vote. Contested Scotland in 2004 European elections for Operation Christian Vote. Contested Na h-Eileanan an Lar 2005.
John McAllion (SSP) born 1948. Educated at St Augustine`s Secondary, Glasgow, and St Andrews University. Former school teacher. Tayside regional councillor for the Labour party from 1984-1987. Labour MP for Dundee East 1987-2001. Labour member of the Scottish Parliament for Dundee East from 1999-2003. Defected to the Scottish Socialist Party in 2003.
Tom Minogue (Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls) born 1944. Retired merchant navy seaman and businessman. Willie Rennie (Liberal Democrat) born 1967, Fife. Educated at the University of Paisley. Former Chief Executive of the Scottish Liberal democrats and party chief of staff in the Scottish Parliament.
Dick Rodgers (Common Good) born 1946. Clergyman and former orthopaedic surgeon. Contested West Midlands region in the 2004 European elections. Contested Hartlepool by-election 2004, Birmingham Northfield 2005.
Carrie Ruxton (Conservative) born 1967, St Andrews. Educated at Queen Margaret University College. Nutrition consultant. Contested Dunfermline East in 1999 Scottish Parliament elections. Contested Northavon 2001.
Catherine Stihler (Labour) born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997.
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I will comment on the Redcar thread tomorrow and on the Glasgow North thread later today.
Lab regain, maj – 250
Braw,a nice wee earner, bet on Labour at 13-8.
Brian spot on. Wasn’t even close. Clearly Brown’s influence was crucial in this regain.
II Did Say labour would win with a big majority. it was actually a majority of 5470, and just under 50% of the vote.
How nice the SNP vote crashed!
I always thought this seat would go back to Labour, and would prove almost impossible for Rennie to hold (apart from the technical possibility).
What I did not expect was the very bad result for the SNP.
No question this is an excellent result for Labour though to have won it so well – a gain of more than 2,500 votes, and share only 1.1% down.
“What I did not expect was the very bad result for the SNP.”
Now that Willie Rennie is out, it seems most likely that the SNP and the Conservatives will increase their vote share at the expense of the LibDems.
The Libs gained the equivalent seat at the last Scottish elections (i think their only FPTP gain against several losses). I’m not sure how boundary changes affect this part of Scotland but next year’s vote could give some indication of the long-term picture for the Lib_dem vote share here. I suspect Labour may re-take the Holyrood seat too,
I’m sure that Labour will regain Dunfermline next year
Prediction: Dunfermline 2011
Turnout 31000
Labour 13200
LD 8100
SNP 7100
Con 2600
What became of Catherine Stihler ?
She’s still a MEP
Few things can be more certain in politics than that the LDs will lose the Dunfermline West constituency at next year’s Scottish Parliament election.
…..other than Labour regaining Glasgow Southside (Glasgow Govan) from the SNP?
Which current wards make up this seat?
The slight difference in Southside Dalek is that Nicola Sturgeon has a reasonably large personal vote, which isn’t true for Jim Tolson. However, I’d still expect Southside to go Labour.
Is Nicola Sturgeon on the Glasgow list?
She might be looking to still come close, and then win the seat back in 2015.
Jim Tolson will be defeated next year and as a consequence of that Willie Rennie should just scrape in via the list.
I was surprised Tricia Marwick is not on the list given she’s nearly certain to lose.
Is this MP Scottish? He spoke in Parliament and I thought I detected a slight Scouse accent. We’re used to lots of Scots in English seats but I can’t think of any travelling north to get a seat.
Rachel Squire, whose death caused the 2006 byelection here, was born in Surrey. There have been a fair few other English born MPs in Scotland in recent years (eg. Tony Worthington, Jeremy Bray) but certainly many fewer than there are Scots born MPs for English seats
“Is Nicola Sturgeon on the Glasgow list?”
yes, she’s at the top of it
Gordon Banks, Thomas Docherty, Tom Greatrex are three that come to mind as current English MPs in Scotland. It seems like a safe place to put talented Labour members aspiring to cabinet positions – there are at least 20 seats in Scotland that Labour are almost guaranteed to win at a general election regardless of their national standing.
I heard Gordon Banks on TV recently & he appeared to have a fairly strong Scottish accent.
Gordon Banks with a Scottish accent????
Definitely not!
“…“Is Nicola Sturgeon on the Glasgow list?”
yes, she’s at the top of it…”
I don’t think that she will notionally gain Glasgow Southside next May but she could win it at a successive Holyrood election.
She does not need to win it, just come close and use her Glasgow list incumbancy to win the seat in the future.
He does have a Scottish Accent, but with a very strong Geordie twang.
Not much in politics can be more certain than that the LDs will lose the Dunfermline seat in the Scottish Parliament elections where they are defending a notional majority of 77 votes. The only question is whether it will be Labour or the SNP that triumphs:
Notional result, 2007:
LD: 9,030 (33.2%)
Lab: 8,953 (32.9%)
SNP: 6,553 (24.1%)
C: 2,277 (8.4%)
Oth: 406 (1.5%)
I think Labour here.
Yes I think Labour as well (lowering them 4% from my earlier prediction)
Lab 38%
SNP 31%
LD 24%
Con 7%
Continuing the theme of English MPs for Scottish seats, Alistair Darling was born in London.
I think they’ll get this one quite easily.
The momentum (that dreaded phrase) but true is with them here,
and I also think the overall situation in Scotland is going to be tight.
‘The momentum (that dreaded phrase) but true is with them here,
and I also think the overall situation in Scotland is going to be tight.’
You think it will be tight Joe? – my current hunch is that the SNP might win by 7 seats but perhaps there are a handful of seats which labour can claw back if the betting odds are anything to go by.
It seems that the SNP are now targeting ‘Coalition’ seats which if gained could swing the overall picture in their favour.
‘It seems that the SNP are now targeting ‘Coalition’ seats which if gained could swing the overall picture in their favour’
Yes, I have no doubt they’ll gain 4 seats from the LDs in the North, I was suggesting Labour might not be completely written off in Kilmarnock, Glasgow Southside, Almond Valley, Edinburgh Eastern and possibly Stirling but we’ll see what happen.
I’m just talking about Labour restricting the defeat.
I think a Lab Gain from Lib Dem is the most likely outcome.
An SNP Gain from Lib Dem (with Lab second) is more likely than an Lib Dem Hold.
Conservatives came from nowhere to come within 3000 votes of wining here in 1983. Similar to Livingston that year, amazing contrast to Glasgow Cathcart (Notional Lab Gain from Con).
A few weeks ago ,i would have said a stick on Labour win,indeed VC was offering 1/6 on Rowley winning,but with the opinion polls the way they are,and sticking my nose in the Dunfermline air and asking about,looking at the number of posters in windows,and a feeling in my guts!! Im going for a SNP win (they only need 4% swing,and just to bring home some money for the weekend trip up north to bag some Munro’s,im sticking on a £25 double, SNP win in Dunfermline and N.E Fife,that will return £218.Happy Days (if it comes in!!)
I think the SNP lead is exaggerated
and am sticking with Labour gain here.
However, I expect the SNP minority administration to continue.
Im thinking of predicting the lottery numbers for this week if anyones interested!!,well there you go,looks like the Lib Dem vote went through the floor,see you all in 2015 for the Westminster election!
Yep, a fantastic piece of political betting there Brian. Fife NE I always suspected might go SNP but the idea of them also taking Dunfermline seemed impossible with Labour such close challengers. However, by Friday morning it was clear that the SNP was quite likely to win this seat.
Yes, I was wrong here.
Congratulations to the SNP.
There must be a danger that they’ll try to ramp Independence back onto the agenda. Most likely, though, is the Scotland will vote Labour again at Westminster.
I’m disappointed with the Conservative performance in Scotland generally.
In 2007-2010, after some slightly better constituency based results, it did look like we could hit 19 even 20% and win about 5 Westminster seats, but it’s uphill.
I think Annabel Goldie has done a good job holding the SNP to account and pressing, for example, for a cut in business rates. I wish her well.
SNP MSP Bill Walker has been suspended from the SNP over deomestic violence allegations.
Fife Council 2012 Prediction
Lab 32 (+8)
SNP 31 (+8)
LD 6 (-15)
Ind 4 (-1)
Con 4 (-1)
Gre 1 (+1)
Will be interesting to see if there is a holyrood BE here.
Labour has never gained a seat from the SNP at a BE before.
and holyrood as well.