Dundee West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 3461 (9.32%)
Labour: 17994 (48.47%)
Liberal Democrat: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.86%)
TUSC: 357 (0.96%)
Independent: 365 (0.98%)
Majority: 7278 (19.61%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 16468 (44.6%)
SNP: 11089 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 5323 (14.4%)
Conservative: 3062 (8.3%)
Other: 994 (2.7%)
Majority: 5379 (14.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 2656 (9.1%)
Labour: 14787 (50.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2620 (9%)
SNP: 7987 (27.3%)
Other: 1192 (4.1%)
Majority: 6800 (23.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5105 (13.2%)
Labour: 20875 (53.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 2972 (7.7%)
SNP: 9016 (23.2%)
Referendum: 411 (1.1%)
Other: 428 (1.1%)
Majority: 11859 (30.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: James McGovern(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Colin Stewart (Conservative) James McGovern(Labour) (more information at They work for you)John Barnett (Liberal Democrat) Jim Barrie (SNP) Jim McFarlane (TUSC)Andy McBride (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89023
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 22.6%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 95.7%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.5%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 61.8%
Muslim: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 17.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.1%
Owner-Occupied: 50.1%
Social Housing: 33.1% (Council: 26.2%, Housing Ass.: 7%)
Privately Rented: 12.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.3%
Big hoo-haa in the Courier today about the BNP candidate, and other candidates not wanting to share a stage with him etc. All the usual oxygen of publicity stuff.
My view is give them and their dispicable views all the publicity possible, and that will turn people away from voting for them – Nick Griffin’s appearance on Question Time where he came away as a bumbling racist idiot, rather than the cool calm reasonable politician which is the image he normally likes to project.
Well I’ve stuck my neck out and put a bet on a Lab Win here
Lab Hold
Maj 1300
Ian Murphy (BNP) has withdrawn.
well this will be a intresting won the council is now snp both holyrood seats are snp even the provost who was elected as lab in 2007 is now independent- SNP GAIN 2000 plus
SNP maj 1,000
SNP maj 19 (after 4 recounts)
I think the result lies somewhere between Pete Whitehead and Dalek.
LAB HOLD
I think this will be a LAB HOLD, although perhaps at the expense of turning the marginal Dundee East into a safer SNP seat.
SNP GAIN majority 350
I notice from recent discussion on the Angus thread that the Electoral reform Society suggest that if the number of Scottish seats is reduced there should be a Dundee West and Gowrie seat. This would be bad news for Labour as I suspect , without delving into local election results, that the Labour vote in Gowrie will be negligible.
Actually, as Dundee is just about big enough for two constituencies on the present arrangements, and the City is notoriously different from the surrounding parts of Forfarshire, sorry – Angus, (except possibly in that Broughty Ferry and Carnoustie act as rich Dundee suburbs), it is difficult to see any way of redrawing boundaries in the Dundee are in connection with a reduction in the number of Scottish MPs that would not hurt Labour.
Labour’s interests would probably be best served by a single Dundee constituency, which would be safe for them except in an exceptionally good year for the SNP, with the outer suburbs (e.g. perhaps Ninewells) hived off into the surrounding seats (Doktorb, who has recently posted for Angus, would perhaps pointed out that this is roughly what currently happens with the English Preston seat). But it has become a tradition that Dundee has an East and a West seat, and I cannot see the Boundary Commissioners as being likely to depart from it.
I would make Dundee, P & K and Angus go from having 4.5 MP’s to 4 MP’s -
Angus (whole council area)
Dundee East (gains City Centre, loses Carnoustie)
Perthshire East (Gowrie) & Dundee Riverside
Perth, Kinross & West Perthshire
The only way a Dundee core constituency could be created would be if a Tayside North was re-created combining North Perthshire with Upper Angus resulting in something like -
Angus South & Broughty Ferry
Dundee (or Dundee Central)
Perth, Kinross & Dundee Riverside
Perthshire West & Upper Angus
The Dundee E seat Dalek suggests would clearly be a likely Labour win. The SNP would probably win a Perthshire E & Dundee Roverside seat as suggested.
I can’t see a Perthshire East/Dundee Riverside seat being created. More likely, if these three local authorities are combined for boundary drawing purposes, is
a) Dundee West: all the city except the North East and Ferry wards (i.e. Whitfield and Broughty Ferry);
b) Angus South: North East and Ferry, plus Monifieth, Sidlaw, Carnoustie and Arbroath;
c) Angus and Perthshire North: basically the old Tayside North plus Montrose; and
d) Perth and Kinross: basically the old seat of that name.
Dundee West would be Lab, the others all SNP.
But that’s assuming that these authorities are the ones that are combined. There’s still the question of whether Dundee and Angus might be better linked to Aberdeenshire, and what happens to Stirling, Clackmannan, and Fife.
If the Boundary Commission is to concentrate on numbers rather than local feeling, another possibility would be to bring some of North Fife – e.g. Nweport, Tayport, Wormit and perhaps even Leuchars into a Dundee West and North Fife seat. See recent discussion on the Angus and Fife North-East threads. It need hardly be said that the idea would go down like a lead ballon with the locals, both those in Dundee and those in North Fife.
I am inclined to agree with Pete Whitehead on the Fife North-East thread; the only practicable option is to recreate an Angus North and Mearns seat.
I see that Aidan Thompson had made the same proposals re: a and b as I did on the Angus thread (though he did so much earlier). Clearly there is another option besides Angus North & Mearns, namely the recreated Tayside North seat (c). I guess that would still be winnable for the Tories in a good year (if they were to have such a thing again in Scotland), but probably not as favourable as Angus North & Mearns where the opposition is more evenly divided
I’ve been playing around with figures and maps a bit more for this and adjacent areas. There’s a slight problem with the former, namely that they’re the LGBCS’s ward figures from 2007, which, as well as being a bit out of date, will include electors who aren’t eligible to vote in Westminster elections. That aside, though, here are some suggestions for what used to be Tayside, Fife, and surrounding areas:
a) Fife North East: Fife wards 17-22 (74,166)
b) Glenrothes and Cowdenbeath: Fife wards 7-9, 14-16 (69,153: obviously on the small side, but in this area as a whole there should be the opportunity for some nips and tucks)
c) Kirkcaldy: Fife wards 6, 10-13, 23 (73,088)
d) Dunfermline and Kinross: Fife wards 1-5; P&K ward 8 (73,908)
e) Ochil and South Perthshire: Clackmannanshire; P&K wards 6-7, 9; Stirling ward 3 (73,319)
f) Perth and North Perthshire: P&K wards 1-5, 10-12 (74,577)
g) Dundee Central: Dundee wards 1-5, 7 (78,803)
h) Angus and Dundee East: Angus wards 1, 4-7; Dundee 6, 8 (80,699)
i) Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine: Aberdeenshire wards 15-19; Angus wards 2-3, 8 (79,442)
j) Gordon: Aberdeenshire wards 7-14 (78,395)
k) Banff and Buchan: Aberdeenshire wards 1-6; Moray wards 2-3 (71,862)
l) Aberdeen North: Aberdeen wards 1-6, 2/3rds of 8 (77,551)
m) Aberdeen South: Aberdeen wards 7, 1/3rd of 8, 9-13 (78,052)
n) Moray, Nairn and Badenoch: Highland wards 19, 21; Moray wards 1, 4-8 (70,741)
o) Inverness, Ross and Skye: Highland wards 6, 11, 13-18, 20 (74,058)
p) Caithness, Sutherland and Cromarty: Highland wards 1-5, 7-10 (65,221)
I’ll stop there before I run out of letters of the alphabet!
As you can see, many of these seats are too large or too small for the new size prescriptions, but in many cases it should be possible to split wards (as I’ve done in Aberdeen, for instance) to bring them within what is permissible; thus the undersized seats in Fife could pick up more electors from Perthshire, which in turn could make up its numbers from Angus and, indirectly, Aberdeenshire. These are just starting points I’m suggesting.
In case you’re wondering, the way I’ve linked the rest of the country is as follows:
1) Glasgow, 3 Renfrewshire authorities, 3 Ayrshire authorities: 13 seats of below average size
2) Argyll & Bute, Lochaber, West Dunbartonshire, East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire (minus Kilsyth): 6 seats of above average size
3) Stirling (minus Dunblane/Bridge of Allan), Kilsyth, Falkirk, West Lothian: 4 seats of below average size (though this is an area which is expected to grow in terms of population)
4) Edinburgh, Midlothian, East Lothian: 6 seats of above average size
5) D&G, South Lanarkshire, Borders: 6 seats of below average size (basically the current seats, but redrawn)
The problem with this, as a quick totting up reveals, is that this makes 51 mainland constituencies, which is too many… but, as I say, I don’t have access to the most recent figures.
Like I suggested on the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine page, there could be a new South Deeside (South Aberdeen and some of the rural areas along the cost between Aberdeen and Stonehaven) seat , with Stonehaven been included in a new Angus East and Stonehaven seat.
Would there be much local support for a seat running along the coast from Dundee to Aberdeen?
None whatsoever, I should think, judging by the public response to the Angus East & Mearns seat proposed – and subsequently rejected – for the Scottish parliament. In any case, I’m pretty sure that the Commission will allocate two seats to the whole City of Aberdeen council area; it’s almost exactly the right size for it.
Under that scenario, There would probably need to be a single Dundee seat with a North Tayside seat taking the rest of the current Angus seat that doesn’t go to Angus East and Stonehaven.
North Tayside could even take in some of the northern parts of Perth and North Perthshire with the the rest becoming part of a new Central Perthshire seat.
Central Perthshire would be most of Perth and North Perthshire and parts of Ochill and South Perthshire. This would loose Alloa and the surrounding area to a new Stirling and Clackmannanshire seat.
So the new seats in Aberdeenshire, Angus and Perthshire would be:
Aberdeenshire North East
Aberdeenshire South West
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Angus East and Stonehaven
North Tayside
Dundee
Central Perthshire
Stirling and Clackmannanshire
How would these boundaries work for the various parties. A guess that the tories would stand a chance of winning in Andus East and Stonehaven and that Dundee would be a safe labour seat.
Prediction Dundee City west 2011
Lab 12000 (+6.5%)
SNP 11000 (-5.5%)
LD 2400 (-1.5%)
Con 2100 (+0.4%)
Predictions for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
SNP – 10000
Lab – 9500
LD – 3000
Con – 2000
I am a long time reader of this site but first time commentor.
I was looking at the candidate lists for Dundee City Council elections and the Lib Dems have put up two candidates in Lochee and North East. But back in 2007 they only polled 7% and 3% of the first preference votes in each. Does anyone know why the Lib Dems are doing this – i can think of a single reason
Oh, and my prediction for Dundee Council is
SNP 16 (+3)
Lab 9 (-1) loss of The Ferry
Con 2 (-1) loss of West End
LD 1 (-1) loss of Strathmartine
Ind 1 (-)
“Does anyone know why the Lib Dems are doing this – i can think of a single reason”
Because they have local people there that want desperately to stand in those particular wards?
Regardless of what some seem to think, local parties often end up contesting wards they would otherwise leave alone if left to their own devices. They end up contesting wards because often there are certain local people who want especially to stand there.
And its often not about purely ‘winning’.
Shaun – thanks, that kind of makes sense. And i suppose if the Lib Dems do have ten people who are really enthusiastic to stand in Dundee it makes sense to put two up in wards where they dont stand a chance rather than a ward where they are competative so as not to risk real chances.
Ironically in hindsight the Lib dems should have stood 2 candidates in West End as they (perhaps surprisingly) actually increased their vote from 28% to 32% there (and got more than the 2 SNP candidates combined).
Agree with hindsight that the LDs should have stood 2 in West End – but it probably seemed too risky at the time. The LDs also saw their first preferences up in the Ferry, mainly at the expense of the Cons.
The city wide results were
First preferences
SNP 43% (+3%)
Lab 30% (+1%)
Con 11% (-1%)
LD 9% (-2%)
Oth 6% (-1%)
Seats
SNP 16 (+3)
Lab 10 (-)
Con 1 (-2)
LD 1 (-1)
Oth 1 (-)