71 Responses to “Dunbartonshire West”

1. Joe James B

   I think the Conservatives should be able to do a bit better than that, but Milngavie is not the stronghold it was.

   January 3rd, 2011 at 6:54 pm
2. Dalek

   When you consider that the Conservatives get nothing in Clydebank (as with Dumbarton and the Vale of Leven when you omit Helensburgh, Cardross and Luss), 4000 votes must be fairly significant in a third of the constituency.

   Central Milngavie had a much higher portion of council houses than the other 3 Milngavie B & M District Council Wards, and was Labour throughout the 1980′s and early 1990′s. Therefore the rest of Milngavie must have been much more Tory.

   January 3rd, 2011 at 8:36 pm
3. Joe James B

   On the Dunbartonshire East thread, we had various discussions about Bearsden and Milngavie, and Robert Waller appeared to indicate that Milngavie used to be as strongly Conservative as Clydebank was/is Labour.

   Aidan Thompson agreed with that.

   So if the 4,000 Tory votes in Clydebank and Milngavie almost all come from Milngavie, could that be as much as 35% in Milngavie?

   January 4th, 2011 at 11:05 pm
4. Joe James B

   Would the Tories really get nothing in Clydebank now?
   100 votes?

   January 4th, 2011 at 11:06 pm
5. Richard

   Milngavie might have been a Conservative stronghold in 1979 but then so was Bearsden.

   I’ve no idea what the electorate is in Clydebank but I doubt the Conservatives could be much below 5% anywhere.

   January 4th, 2011 at 11:21 pm
6. Joe James B

   I’m not so sure –
   I think it might be 5 or 6%.

   19 out of 20 households you get the front door slammed in hour face, then the sink out the window.

   Yes, I could believe that.

   January 4th, 2011 at 11:35 pm
7. Aidan Thomson

   I missed this exchange back in January, so here’s my tuppence-worth:

   A Brown: the Denver estimate for the Lib Dems in 2001 was very low here because of the nature of the two old constituencies from which this seat was created. In Dumbarton, the Lib Dems polled well in local elections in Helensburgh, but not in Dumbarton or the Vale of Leven (they didn’t normally put up candidates in either area); in Clydebank & Milngavie, they polled well in Milngavie, but not in Clydebank (again, they tended not to put up candidates in the area). In 2005, Helensburgh was transferred to Argyll & Bute, and Milngavie to Dunbartonshire East; therefore most of the Lib Dem vote in Dumbarton and Clydebank & Milngavie went with them, leaving very little in the bits that became Dunbartonshire West.

   These figures were probably slightly polarized. I can’t speak for Helensburgh, but Milngavie was certainly the sort of place where people voted Lib Dem in droves in local elections, but much less so in general elections. The 2007 Holyrood elections are helpful here. 70% of the Lib Dem vote in Clydebank & Milngavie came from Milngavie, but only 45% of the Lib Dem vote in Dumbarton came from Helensburgh. Had those proportions been applied to the 2001 general election results, the notional Lib Dem total would have been closer to 4000 than 1100. (It would also have meant that Labour would have notionally held Argyll & Bute in 2001 by about 1300 votes.)

   Dalek, JJB, et al: in 2007, about 72% of the Tories’ vote in Clydebank & Milngavie came from Milngavie, and 28% from Clydebank, and 59% of their vote in Dumbarton came from Helensburgh (with 41% from Dumbarton and the Vale of Leven). In that same year, the votes cast on the day in what used to be the Milngavie/Kilmardinny Strathclyde regional division were: Lab 2604 (28.6%), SNP 2476 (27.2%), Con 2152 (23.7%), LD 1862 (20.5%). Whilst this was a somewhat unusual result – this must have been the best SNP result in Milngavie for decades – it still indicates that Tory support there isn’t anything like as big as it used to be. (And I doubt it was quite as high in general elections as Waller made out; certainly by 1992 it couldn’t have been much higher in than 40%, if that.)

   Richard: the electorate of Clydebank is about 32,000, I think; Milngavie and Kilmardinny is about half that size. And if 2007 is anything to go by, you’re right about the Tories’ 5% base: the Clydebank bit of C&M split Labour 53.1%, SNP 35.2%, Lib Dems 6.0%, Tories 5.7%.

   Re Milngavie: the traditional Labour stronghold was Craigdhu ward, about half of which was a council estate to the north-west of the town centre. But the other wards were mixed too. Barloch ward (where I grew up) was probably the most affluent, though it had its share of social housing, particularly towards the town centre; Keystone and Clober included quite a bit of ’70s suburbia that was once very fashionable but is now beginning to show its age. The commercial heart of Milngavie isn’t as prosperous as it used to be, I hear; a large Tesco has sucked much of the life out of the local shops, which is a real pity as the main shopping streets were very attractive, and there were a lot of independent, local, small businesses.

   February 20th, 2011 at 1:38 am
8. Joe James B

   Excellent detail Aidan – all of it very interesting.
   I think your point about Milngavie in 1992 does sound pretty spot on aswell.

   I like the decription of different bits of Milngavie. I was there in February 2006 -
   it was pleasant but generally somewhat more suburban than Bearsden, I thought.
   When did this Tesco store arrive?

   I had a very quick glance at Clydebank and it didn’t look as run down as I expected.

   February 20th, 2011 at 2:03 am
9. Aidan Thomson

   Thanks, Joe. Interesting that you found Milngavie more suburban than Bearsden. I’d instinctively have said it was the other way round, as Milngavie has a central business area that’s far bigger than Bearsden’s; Bearsden’s shops are more spread throughout the town. I think I’m right in saying that Milngavie is a longer-established town than Bearsden, and that Bearsden’s growth coincided with the arrival of suburban railway in the late-nineteenth/early-twentieth centuries. Architecturally, Bearsden has got rather more in the way of large, detached sandstone villas than Milngavie does, which perhaps gives it more the feel of an affluent urban district than a suburb.

   The Milngavie Tesco must have arrived about fifteen years ago. It’s very convenient – but that’s precisely the problem for all the other traders in the town. There’s one prime commercial site in Station Road in Milngavie (or at least, what ought to be a prime commercial site) that is currently vacant, and has been for a while, and I’m sure that the competition of Tesco is part of the problem. That’s very sad, I think.

   Clydebank is mixed. Some parts of it are a bit grim but parts of Hardgate and Dalmuir are very pleasant, and there’s quite a good shopping centre there too. Also: how many run down towns can you think of that have three golf clubs in them?!

   February 20th, 2011 at 11:56 am
10. Joe James B

    Yes, I did think the shops looked a little mediocre,
    not quite what you’d get in a very high status place.

    Milngavie is quite pleasant though, from what I saw, I think when I said surburban I meant the housing stock is rather more modern,
    whereas Bearsden has some real class to it with excellent stone properties.

    The Highland Way walk from Milngavie sounds worth doing, provided you avoid the midges.

    February 20th, 2011 at 9:26 pm
11. Aidan Thomson

    I think we were thinking the same things about Milngavie’s and Bearsden’s architecture, but just used different words to say it. There are some nice stone properties in Milngavie too, mostly east of Allander Water and especially around Tannoch Loch; that’s the older part of the town, whereas Craigdhu and Clober are more modern developments. Some of the newest, e.g. Douglas Park, are quite upmarket, but suffer from developers trying to maximize their profits by squeezing as many large houses as they can into the smallest available areas – all a bit goldfish-bowl-like.

    The West Highland Way (sic) is an absolute joy. I’ve not done the first bit of it, from Milngavie to Loch Lomond, but I’ve done the rest, from Loch Lomond to Fort William, and if you pick a good time of year – I did it in October when I was at school, and the weather was perfect – you can indeed avoid the midges. 90-odd miles, but just four constituencies, I think: Dunbartonshire East, Stirling, Argyll & Bute, and Ross, Skye & Lochaber.

    February 20th, 2011 at 11:56 pm
12. Joe James B

    I don’t think I saw those stone bits of Milngavie – must take a look another time. I guess they must be away from the main roads, perhaps a bit north.Tannoch Loch sounds like a nice name.
    The Highland Way is on the list. Thanks for the advice.

    February 21st, 2011 at 12:18 am
13. A Brown

    Kilpatrick by election result

    Labour 1382 (60.1) +4.4
    SNP 758 (32.9) +0.1
    Con 161 (7.0) -1.3

    swing 2% SNP to Lab

    One of Labour’s strongest wards in Scotland and a relatively static result.

    March 4th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
14. David

    This area produced a comparatively odd result in the recent Holyrood election. Jackie Baillie held Dumbarton for Labour with a swing in her favour (from the SNP) of 0.2%. A tiny shift, but pretty remarkable given Labour lost handfuls of seats all over the place that night (including on paper, the much more secure Clydebank and Milngavie next door).
    Indeed of the West Dunbartonshire area I would have thought Clydebank would be stronger for Labour usually than the territory in the Dumbarton seat, which includes Helensburgh. I would assume that this may just be a case of Jackie Baillie carrying a significant personal vote within the constituency (possibly similar to Iain Gray holding onto East Lothian, admittedly he only did so by a tiny amount, but I’ve no doubt that if he wasn’t the leader of Scottish Labour at the time the SNP would have gained that seat as well). I cant think of any other crucial reason why Dumbarton, which was clearly a marginal going into the 2011 Holyrood election would stick with Labour whilst so many ‘safer’ seats fell

    July 8th, 2011 at 9:56 pm
15. barney crockett

    David
    Perhaps not entirely co-incidental that a good proportion of the electorate work in the Faslane nuclear submarine base?

    July 8th, 2011 at 10:17 pm
16. David

    That’s an interesting point, which I hadn’t considered. But then Dumbarton did have a really big swing to the SNP in 2007, perhaps more than the national average?
    The one thing I did wonder about was the impact of hospital infections at the Vale of Leven, I know Jackie Baillie got a lot of coverage on this and it featured very prominently in the 2011 manifesto. Knowing how emotive the provision of helath services can be on voting behaviour I wondered if this was perhaps a unique thing that ulitamately lead to a stronger Labour performance in this seat (just a theory, I’ve haven’t spent much time in the area).

    July 8th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
17. A Cairns

    Yes, I assume the result was partly down to defence jobs and also Jackie Baillie’s effective local record on issues like the hospital infections.

    I assume Labour did quite well in Helensburgh at the expense of the LDs so may have a chance of getting a couple of councillors elected there next year even though they did not put up candidates last time.

    July 9th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
18. Joe James B

    A remarkably good Labour result in 2010, even by Scottish standards.

    April 12th, 2012 at 11:57 pm
19. stan

    Council prediction

    I dont think there’ll be any changes from 2007 in West Dunbartonshire -especially given th every good 2010 result and 2011 result for Dumbarton

    LAB 10 (-)
    SNP 9 (-)
    Ind 2 (-)
    SSP 1 (-)

    April 20th, 2012 at 6:10 pm
20. stan

    West Dunbartonshire followed the same pattern as the Dumbarton seat at the SP election and strongly trended Labour. The SNP’s first preferences were down in 5 of the six wards with a massive SNP-Lab swing of 14.5% in Lomond.

    Final results were

    First Preferences

    Lab 47% (+9%)
    SNP 30% (-4%)
    SSP 5% (-1%)
    Con 4% (-3%
    Oth 14% (+2%)

    Seats

    Lab 12 (+2)
    SNP 6 (-3)
    SSP 1 (-)
    Oth 3 (+1)

    May 10th, 2012 at 7:15 pm
21. Joe James B

    2015

    * Lab 31,739
    SNP 10,649
    Con 4,045
    UKIP 782
    LD 745
    Socialist Labour 569

    Lab majority 21,090

    December 8th, 2012 at 2:40 am