Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17457 (38.04%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9080 (19.79%)
SNP: 4945 (10.78%)
UKIP: 637 (1.39%)
Green: 510 (1.11%)
Majority: 4194 (9.14%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
Other: 951 (2.1%)
Majority: 1738 (3.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Dumfries.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
Other: 702 (1.6%)
Majority: 8834 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13885 (28%)
Labour: 23528 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5487 (11.1%)
SNP: 5977 (12.1%)
Referendum: 533 (1.1%)
Other: 117 (0.2%)
Majority: 9643 (19.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A large, rural constituency in the southern uplands of Scotland. To the south it is bounded by the Solway Firth and England in the form of Penrith and the Borders. Most of the seat is unpopulated hills and mountains, most of the towns are small settlements of only a few thousand that have historically relied upon the wool trade from surrounding hill farms. The main settlements include Sanquhar, Annan on the Solway Firth – until 2007 the site of Chapelcross nuclear power station, Gretna Green with it`s marriage industry, Langholm, Moffat, Biggar, Peebles, Innerleithen and Lockerbie – now infamous for the 1988 plane bombing.
Since 2005 this has been the only Conservative held seat in Scotland.
Current MP: David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Claudia Beamish (Labour) Daughter of Sir Tufton Beamish, former Conservative MP for Lewes. Teacher. Contested South of Scotland list 1999, 2003, 2007.
Catriona Bhatia (Liberal Democrat)
Aileen Orr (SNP) born 1953. Educated at Lockerbie Academy. Political lobbyist and former banker. Contested Roxburgh and Berwickshire & South of Scotland list in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005.Alis Ballance (Green)Steven McKeane (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81547
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 24.3%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 68.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.4%
Owner-Occupied: 63.6%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 18.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
Very difficult to predict this one in 2015 on current boundaries.
Mundell should be concerned by the fraying of the tory vote in Dumfriesshire and it will all probably boil down to whether Labour works Peebles and Innerleithen or not.
It will be 1000 either way
Personally I’m inclined to be optimistic from a Labour point of view. But I agree it is likely to be close.
Labour polled 9% in Tweeddale West where the LD vote increased from 25% to 34% but were snapping at the LDs heels in Tweedale East where they came close to a breakthrough onto the council.
This seat is difficult to predict because there is so little SNP vote for the Tories to squeeze even if the SNP vote collapses after the referendum. But there is a small but significant Lib Dem vote for Labour to squeeze.
Even if there is a big swing from the SNP to Labour across Scotland in 2015, very few seats will be gained because Labour are still dominant across the central belt at Westminster level.
Although the Tories will have at least one Scottish seat after the next election as I’m 75% sure they’ll gain Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, but this one is still difficult to predict. Perhaps someone who know the area better than me could throw some more light on the situation.
You would expect the Lib Dem vote here to probably be a bit higher. And in the old Galloway constituency, the SNP were really strong, but it seems that now in the neighbouring Dumfries and Galloway they’re nowhere. Anyone know why?
‘But GB wasnt the unpopular Labour PM in Scotland. 2010 wasnt a low point here for labour nor was it high for the tories’
Labour should hold their vote at 42% in 2015 in Scotland (as their core vote was fired up at a local level) but 46% is their absolute ceiling because they only got 45.6% in 1997.
Holyrood is too impossible to analyse.
Either the SNP will retain power pretty comfortably or will shed 20 seats to both Lab and greens in 2016.
interesting BE in Annandale N coming up.
‘You would expect the Lib Dem vote here to probably be a bit higher. And in the old Galloway constituency, the SNP were really strong, but it seems that now in the neighbouring Dumfries and Galloway they’re nowhere. Anyone know why’
I think it’s largely a personal vote for Russell Brown and possible tactical unwind although Upper Nithsdale has swung/trended to Labour as well.
Galloway has certainly trended really heavily away from the SNP as it produced the lowest pro SNP swing in the 2011 holyrood election.
Galloway was a very surprising Conservative hold at the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections.
But going back to DCT, this is still a very difficult seat to predict, and I don’t think the Tory performance here at Westminster level can be used as an accurate indication of the overall Tory strength/weakness across Scotland.
Yes that’s fair enough. In the tories defence their vote held up better in Tweeddale than in the SP election where their vote was squeezed by the LDs and the SNP.
*at the local elections*
There was a local government by election in Annadale North (which I think is in this seat). First preference results were, with change on 2012 first preference totals,
Con 46.0% (+5.5%)
Lab 25.3% (+5.7%)
Grn 11.7% (-2.6%)
SNP 9.4% (-7.4%)
LD 5.3% (-3.6%)
UKIP 2.3% (+2.3%)
Counts as a Con gain off Lab, as it was the Labour seat that was vacant. Perhaps a little mischevious of the Conservatives to claim it as a big gain though! – it would have been pretty dire if they hadn’t won.
Obviously this isn’t a strong area for the SNP, but to drop 7% since May and come behind the Greens was interesting.