Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17457 (38.04%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9080 (19.79%)
SNP: 4945 (10.78%)
UKIP: 637 (1.39%)
Green: 510 (1.11%)
Majority: 4194 (9.14%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
Other: 951 (2.1%)
Majority: 1738 (3.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Dumfries.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
Other: 702 (1.6%)
Majority: 8834 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13885 (28%)
Labour: 23528 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5487 (11.1%)
SNP: 5977 (12.1%)
Referendum: 533 (1.1%)
Other: 117 (0.2%)
Majority: 9643 (19.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A large, rural constituency in the southern uplands of Scotland. To the south it is bounded by the Solway Firth and England in the form of Penrith and the Borders. Most of the seat is unpopulated hills and mountains, most of the towns are small settlements of only a few thousand that have historically relied upon the wool trade from surrounding hill farms. The main settlements include Sanquhar, Annan on the Solway Firth – until 2007 the site of Chapelcross nuclear power station, Gretna Green with it`s marriage industry, Langholm, Moffat, Biggar, Peebles, Innerleithen and Lockerbie – now infamous for the 1988 plane bombing.
Since 2005 this has been the only Conservative held seat in Scotland.
Current MP: David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Claudia Beamish (Labour) Daughter of Sir Tufton Beamish, former Conservative MP for Lewes. Teacher. Contested South of Scotland list 1999, 2003, 2007.
Catriona Bhatia (Liberal Democrat)
Aileen Orr (SNP) born 1953. Educated at Lockerbie Academy. Political lobbyist and former banker. Contested Roxburgh and Berwickshire & South of Scotland list in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005.Alis Ballance (Green)Steven McKeane (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81547
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 24.3%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 68.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.4%
Owner-Occupied: 63.6%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 18.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
“Not sure whether this is a good or a bad decision.”
You prove my point exactly. When faced with such an uncertain choice the average Tory chooses the safer option, that’s why they are called “Conservative” after all.
I agree there are no easy answers. Fraser’s ideas were too much of a leap in the dark. Until independence happens, I think the best the Tories can do in Scotland is ruthlessly concentrate their efforts on a few border seats.
“Presumably Scottish Labour will be busy organising some alternative plan that shuts the Tories out here. If the seat does survive in this form anmd assuming Russell Brown stands in Dumfires, this is absolutely the Tories’ seat to lose, notional lead in 2010 or not.”
The real notional Conservative majority (that would exclude Browns personal vote) would be greater, and half way between Alex Fergussons Holyrood result and Russell Browns Westminster result. I agree, a Tory seat to lose. I think that Sandra Osbourne is more likely to want Central Ayrshire.
The trouble is even those Border seats turn out to be hard nuts to crack when it comes down to all the opponent parties wanting to make it absolutely certain there isn’t a Tory government at Westminster.
We saw in 2011 how the Labour vote collapsed to the SNP in many areas – except where they were the main opposition to the Tories.
But I agree the Borders is the area where the Tories should fight very hard.
It won’t be inconceivable to see the Conservatives lose the proposed Galloway and Carrick seat, yet gain Berwickshire. As for David Mundell, I think he only has a real claim on the new Dumfries seat as opposed to Galloway and Carrick, but I’m not quite sure.
How many women have been Conservative MPs for Scottish constituencies?
The last one was Anna McCurley (Renfrew West & Inverclyde 1983-7) but even she defected to the LibDems.
I can also think of Betty Harvie Anderson, who was the first woman Deputy Speaker 1970-3. I wonder what she would have made of the Tories’ decline in Scotland?
There can’t be many more, maybe half a dozen?
The only other I can think of is Lady Tweedsmuir who was MP for Aberdeen South from 1946 to 1966. I think half a dozen may be an overestimate
From what I can see very few indeed, just one -
Florence Horsbrugh (Baroness) represented Dundee from 1931 to 1945
Wasn’t the Duchess of Atholl Conservative MP for Kinross & W Perthshire?
Presumably not a peeress in her own right so was not barred from sitting in the Commons.
Talking about these ladies reminds you how Tory fortunes have changed over the years. Miss Horsbrugh moved on to Manchester Moss Side! Miss Harvie Anderson’s East Renfrewshire was once a solid Tory banker but they can’t win it back now, let alone any others in the Glasgow area.
‘Miss Harvie Anderson’s East Renfrewshire was once a solid Tory banker but they can’t win it back now, let alone any others in the Glasgow area.’
What stands out about East Renfrewshire/Eastwood is that unlike other seats like Manchester Moss Side, Croydon North – where demographic change has rendered these seats unrecognisable from their former selfs – it is still the home of wealthy A/B professionals so you would assume that the Tories would have a strong enough core vote to be competitive
No not a peeress in her own right but the spouse of the Duke. I think she was originally Conservative, then became Independent Conservative, but my memory may be astray. The seat was dead safe for many many years, and of course was for some years represented by Sir Alec Douglas-Home (as he became at that point).
The Tories are competitive in the Eastwood constituency. This year they were 2,000 votes from winning it.
But that Eastwood at the Scottish Parliament is even more favourable to the Tories than the long-term Eastwood (East Renfrewshire) constituency at Westminster. I think Tim Jones is referring to the Westminster boundaries.
The Eastwood seat that the Tories lost by a couple of thousand of votes does not include Labour’s best area of Barrhead. I think the Eastwood seat at the Scottish Parliament, had it existed in 1997, might even have been held by the Tories as Jim Murphy’s original lead was around 3,000 (Barrhead probably accounted for more than that by itself)
“The Tories are competitive in the Eastwood constituency. This year they were 2,000 votes from winning it.”
The Tories would have won Eastwood by over 3000 on the new Holyrood boundaries in 2007 but Labour would have been around 5000 votes ahead even on these boundaries at the 2010 General Election.
If you use the 2007 Holyrood result as a benchmark the result was sensational for Labour but if you use the 2010 general election as a benchmark the Tories made some comeback by cutting the Labour lead in more than half.