Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
2005 Results:
Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
Other: 951 (2.1%)
Majority: 1738 (3.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Dumfries.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
Other: 702 (1.6%)
Majority: 8834 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13885 (28%)
Labour: 23528 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5487 (11.1%)
SNP: 5977 (12.1%)
Referendum: 533 (1.1%)
Other: 117 (0.2%)
Majority: 9643 (19.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A large, rural constituency in the southern uplands of Scotland. To the south it is bounded by the Solway Firth and England in the form of Penrith and the Borders. Most of the seat is unpopulated hills and mountains, most of the towns are small settlements of only a few thousand that have historically relied upon the wool trade from surrounding hill farms. The main settlements include Sanquhar, Annan on the Solway Firth – until 2007 the site of Chapelcross nuclear power station, Gretna Green with it`s marriage industry, Langholm, Moffat, Biggar, Peebles, Innerleithen and Lockerbie – now infamous for the 1988 plane bombing.
Since 2005 this has been the only Conservative held seat in Scotland.
Outgoing MP: David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Claudia Beamish (Labour) Daughter of Sir Tufton Beamish, former Conservative MP for Lewes. Teacher. Contested South of Scotland list 1999, 2003, 2007.
Catriona Bhatia (Liberal Democrat)
Aileen Orr (SNP) born 1953. Educated at Lockerbie Academy. Political lobbyist and former banker. Contested Roxburgh and Berwickshire & South of Scotland list in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005.Douglas Watters (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81547
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 24.3%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 68.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.4%
Owner-Occupied: 63.6%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 18.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
I can’t see the swing to Labour – even in Scotland. I think any rise in the Labour vote in Scotland will be in their very safest Scottish seats (Coatbridge; Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath; Airdrie & Shotts; Glasgow NE) and will be cancelled out by drops in their vote in more Tory areas – including here.
Labour will lose seats in Scotland – not many, but they will lose some.
Centuries Shaun? While I am more than most interested in going back into the mists of time to discuss old elections, I dont think you can talk in any way meaningfully about elections beyond about 150 years ago, simply because the franchise was so limited and really before then general elections were a series of local contests which added up to a national picture, rather in the way that some LD commentators like to imagine is still the case now. Even then you do see the kind of extremes as recently as the late 19th century. In 1865 the Conservatives won a majority of Welsh seats even as the Liberals won a comfortable majority nationally but only 21 years later in 1886 the Conservatives won a landlside nationally but won only a small minority of Welsh seats.
OK Pete, maybe not centuries. But it sounded more impressive than decades
I suppose until we get to 2085 we won’t be able to talk about centuries (plural). Even after 2032 it will be a struggle because of the highly limited franchise following the so called (and probably over-inflated) “Great Reform Act”.
I don’t think that the Labour vote will fall much here, however, I think Mundell will be returned with about 4000 votes of a majority.
As for Dumfries and Galloway I can see Labour holding on by about 1000 votes and the same for East Dunbartonshire.
I think the Tories will gain Stirling, Edinburgh South and Berwickshire. I think places like Angus and Perth and N Perthshire have it all to fight for and will come down to how well the local campaigns go.
**Meant East Ren sorry
If the LD’s can hold onto their vote this could become an interesting 3 way marginal in the future.