Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17457 (38.04%)
Labour: 13263 (28.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9080 (19.79%)
SNP: 4945 (10.78%)
UKIP: 637 (1.39%)
Green: 510 (1.11%)
Majority: 4194 (9.14%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
Other: 951 (2.1%)
Majority: 1738 (3.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Dumfries.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
Other: 702 (1.6%)
Majority: 8834 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13885 (28%)
Labour: 23528 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5487 (11.1%)
SNP: 5977 (12.1%)
Referendum: 533 (1.1%)
Other: 117 (0.2%)
Majority: 9643 (19.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A large, rural constituency in the southern uplands of Scotland. To the south it is bounded by the Solway Firth and England in the form of Penrith and the Borders. Most of the seat is unpopulated hills and mountains, most of the towns are small settlements of only a few thousand that have historically relied upon the wool trade from surrounding hill farms. The main settlements include Sanquhar, Annan on the Solway Firth – until 2007 the site of Chapelcross nuclear power station, Gretna Green with it`s marriage industry, Langholm, Moffat, Biggar, Peebles, Innerleithen and Lockerbie – now infamous for the 1988 plane bombing.
Since 2005 this has been the only Conservative held seat in Scotland.
Current MP: David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
David Mundell(Conservative) born 1962, Dumfries. Educated at Lockerbie Academy and Edinburgh University. Solicitor and former legal advisor for British Telecom. Annandale and Eskdale councillor 1984-1986 and Dumfries and Galloway 1986-1987 for the SDP. SOuth of Scotland MSP for the Conservative party from 1999-2005 until his election as MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in 2005. As the only Conservative MP for a Scottish seat he became Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in December 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Claudia Beamish (Labour) Daughter of Sir Tufton Beamish, former Conservative MP for Lewes. Teacher. Contested South of Scotland list 1999, 2003, 2007.
Catriona Bhatia (Liberal Democrat)
Aileen Orr (SNP) born 1953. Educated at Lockerbie Academy. Political lobbyist and former banker. Contested Roxburgh and Berwickshire & South of Scotland list in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005.Alis Ballance (Green)Steven McKeane (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81547
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 24.3%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 68.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.4%
Owner-Occupied: 63.6%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 18.4%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
A lot of ridiculous predictions on this seat.
Mundell did pretty well, as he did in 2005.
LD share slightly down.
Pete’s prediction was quite close.
This is one seat where the Tories probably wouldn’t relish the prospect of AV being introduced.
If the 585 seat policy is introduced this seat would need to have about 12,000 voters added. Are there any areas adjacent to this seat with 12,000 voters which are so anti-Conservative that they could conceivably notionally wipe out Mundell’s 4,194 vote majority?
If not it would mean that the nine seats likely to be abolished in Scotland would not affect the fact that the Scottish Tories hold one seat. So the Tories would then hold one seat out of fifty.
The LDs added 34 votes here.
“Are there any areas adjacent to this seat with 12,000 voters which are so anti-Conservative that they could conceivably notionally wipe out Mundell’s 4,194 vote majority”
The town of Dumfries itself probably contains more or less that many voters and could well have provided a large enough Labour lead to wipe out the majority
I think Dumfries would be too big and would leave Galloway isolated in terms of making a properly sized seat.
It would make more sense to expand this seat in to the Borders and even lose Upper Nithsdale to an expanded East Ayrshire seat.
I’d have thought the most logical change to this seat would be as follows:
a) lose the bits of Lochar and Nith wards that are currently in the seat to an otherwise unaltered Dumfries & Galloway seat;
b) gain the remainder of Clydesdale East ward from Lanark & Hamilton East;
c) gain the remainder of Clydesdale South ward from East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow;
d) gain the remainder of Tweeddale East ward from Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.
The result would be a seat of around 76000 electors that wouldn’t cross any local government ward boundaries. I’d estimate a small (less than 5%) Tory majority over Labour.
“Pete’s prediction was quite close.
This is one seat where the Tories probably wouldn’t relish the prospect of AV being introduced.”
Thats why AV is not PR because it would result in half a million Tories in Scotland having no represention in parliament.
I think this seat that straddles three local authorities would disappear.
Galloway might be linked with rural South Ayrshire leaving ‘Dumfries & Dumfriesshire’, which would be the pre-1983 Dumfriesshire boundaries (combining the Dumfries Holyrood seat with Upper Nithsdale).
While Berwickshire may be re-twinned with rural East Lothian, resulting in the re-creation on of the pre-1983 Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles.
In such an even, there could be another showdown between Russell Brown and an incumbant Tory MP for the Dumfries/ Dumfriesshire seat.
I’m not sure that Dumfries and Dumfriesshire, a la pre-1983, would be quite large enough, and combining Galloway with south Ayrshire would lead to messy knock-on effects elsewhere: the three Ayrshire authorities combined are more less the right size for four seats, possibly with the addition of part of Inverclyde. I’d keep D&G, South Lanarkshire and the Scottish Borders as one group, retain the current East Lothian seat, combine Edinburgh and Midlothian, combine the three Ayrshire authorities, and create nine seats out of Glasgow and the three Renfrewshire authorities.
A constituency straddling the Glasgow / East Renfrewshire boundary would once have been ideal for the Tories.
Glasgow Cathcart with out Carnmunock and Castlemilk, but with Giffnock, Clarkston and Eaglesham would pehaps have been Tory in 1992.
Originally, Eastwood District Council was to be part of Glasgow District Council in 1974, at with Newlands and Cathcart – it could have formed the revised Glasgow Cathcart in 1983. Glasgow District Council (like Edinburgh) was suppose to gain all its wealthy suburbs (Bearsden & Milngavie to).
At the end of the day, (with the exception of annexing Rutherglen) Glasgow continued like Manchester and Liverpool to be based on the 1950’s boundaries.