Comments on: Dumfries and Galloway

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 19:31:59 +0000

“I would not be surprised if David Mundell stood in Galloway & Carrick (even although it contains nothing of his current constituency. Of the three constituencies that annex parts of DCT the closest the Conservative come is over 5000 behind in Dumfries).”

From a Tory point of view that would be the better option. However, he could be accused of ‘chicken running’ and would be up against an incumbent Labour MP, likely to be Sandra Osborne. That said if he runs in Dumfries then he could lose against Russell Brown. If I were the Tories I would argue for keeping the status quo in the boundary review appeals process.

By: swanarcadian

swanarcadian — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 22:44:20 +0000

There were numerous seats such as Perth and Edinburgh Pentlands which in 2005 the Conservatives would probably have gained had they not been abolished. That, sadly, might have sparked the end of any hope we had in re-gaining a momentum in Scotland.
I support the proposal that the Scottish Conservatives should re-form into its own breakaway party, as its London-centric image does not seem to be helping at all.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 17:48:20 +0000

I would not be surprised if David Mundell stood in Galloway & Carrick (even although it contains nothing of his current constituency. Of the three constituencies that annex parts of DCT the closest the Conservative come is over 5000 behind in Dumfries).

Russell Brown increased the Labour majority in D & G from a notional few hundred to nearly 3000 in 2005 and then over 7000 in 2010.

Brown has a hugh personal vote and his decision to fight D & G as opposed to DCT may have resulted in Peter Duncan’s defeat and David Mundells victory in 2005.

Russell Brown did particuarly well in Galloway in 2010, he had to in order to win by over 7000, as he had already reached saturation point in urban Dumfries. Labour have not enjoyed this level of support in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 2007 or Galloway & West Dumfries in 2011, so it has to be personal.

Carrick not only includes rural South Ayrshire (and seaside towns like Girvan) but also the Southern Ayr suburbs. The hoplessness of Ayr, Carrick & Doon Valley may have mutted the Conservative vote in 2010.
Many of the Tories could be motivated to vote in a winnable seat. This may be the reason why there was so much distance between the 2001 notional result for DCT (5000 – 6000 Labour majority) and the actual 2005 result, and also highlights Russell Brown’s personal vote.

Russell Browns absence could result much of the left of centre vote in Galloway returning to the SNP (as they did before 2005 and as they still do in Holyrood).

By: Calum Smith

Calum Smith — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:59:10 +0000

Russell Brown will most likely stand in Dumfries where he will almost certainly win, meaning that Mundell would most likely stand in Galloway and Carrick where he really ought to win – it contains much of the Galloway and W. Dumfries seat and a very Tory-inclined part of the Ayr seat, both of which remained Tory earlier this year. Although if Peter Duncan stands again, who knows? Mundell is popular locally however and so I guess there’s an outside chance he could fight Brown for Dumfries and win – I’m actually surprised that Aidan’s notional majority for that seat is so small – 6,000 when it was nearly 10,000 in 2001. The Tories could well win in Berwickshire as well/instead in 2015 – I think Michael Moore is dull as dishwater quite frankly. A Scottish Tory wipeout could thus be avoided perhaps.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:57:37 +0000

Shaun, Troon and Prestwick are actually quite marginal towns. Back in 1987 and 1992, when Ayr was more or less a dead heat, the Tories’ lead in Troon wasn’t that great, and Labour were almost certainly ahead in Prestwick. In the mid-1990s Labour won all the wards in both towns in local elections. The Tories have recovered since then in local elections; but given the size of the Labour majority in Ayrshire Central last year they are unlikely to have had much of a lead in either town. Indeed, my own calculations suggest that Labour would have been ahead in both towns: by about 5% in Troon, and by about 9% in Prestwick. Labour would also have been substantially ahead in rural Kyle (20%) and north Ayr (27%). The most Tory part of Ayr, Ayr West ward, isn’t in Kyle and Carrick; that, together with the presence of Cumnock and Doon Valley, explains why Kyle & Cumnock would be a fairly safe Labour seat. (Indeed, the Tories would actually have come third on the votes-cast-on-the-day box counts in this seat in the 2007 Holyrood elections.)

Re Galloway & Carrick: remember that over 40% of that seat *isn’t* from Dumfries & Galloway, but from seats where Labour is the main anti-Tory party. Also, remember that we don’t know exactly how partisan SNP supporters in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale were, and how many of them were Labour supporters voting tactically. I suspect the ‘natural’ figure of Labour supporters in Galloway is higher than most G&UN results would suggest, and lower than the D&G results would suggest – in other words, Lab/SNP tactical voting works both ways.

By: East of East Lothian

East of East Lothian — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:47:31 +0000

Interesting figures there – so notional result for new seats would be Tory = 0 in Scotland. Of course next time round the Lib Dem situation could be a help in Berwickshire and Alastair Darling might decide to retire from Edinburgh South West… .

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:34:41 +0000

Yes Shaun a seat including Cumnock is always going to terribly hard for the Tories. Cumnock & neighbouring Dalmellington are amongst the most Labour towns anywhere in Scotland. Galloway & Carrick is more interesting and if the Tories do as well as they did in 2010, and Russell Brown isn’t the candidate (the latter seems to me to be near-certain) the Tories would indeed have a good chance. A small swing to Labour however would probably enable Labour to hold on even in Brown’s absence.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 13:32:57 +0000

I’m a bit surprised by how safe for Labour Kyle and Cumnock looks. I know that Labour are strong in Cumnock and the Doon Valley but it really looks a bit like the old Ayr seat which the Tories would most likely have won in 2005 and 2010. I’d expect the Labour lead to be quite a bit smaller than the 12,000 estimated.

The Galloway estimate looks more reasonable but I do still think that Labour won’t actually have much chance of really winning that actual seat without Dumfries in it. Before Dumfries was added, labour were always third behind the SNP here, and I expect that arrangement will return.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 12:44:18 +0000

I’ve done a bit of detailed number crunching based on polling districts. Dumfries and Kyle & Cumnock both look good for Labour, but Galloway & Carrick would have been a knife-edge result (though still Labour):

Dumfries
Lab 21,386 (46.1)
Con 15,891 (34.3)
LD 4,863 (10.5)
SNP 4,234 (9.1)
Lab maj 5,495 (11.8)

Galloway and Carrick
Lab 19,574 (37.5)
Con 19,275 (36.9)
SNP 8,363 (16.0)
LD 5,012 (9.6)
Lab maj 299 (0.6)

Kyle and Cumnock
Lab 23,835 (48.8)
Con 11,444 (23.5)
SNP 8,581 (17.6)
LD 4,918 (10.1)
Lab maj 12,391 (25.4)

The Tories’ strength in Troon and Prestwick is cancelled out by Labour strength in Ayr North and overwhelming strength in Cumnock and Doon Valley.

More generally, there are some good things in the Commission’s proposals, but also quite a few bad things. Their number one aim has been to avoid grouping too many councils together, rather than to avoid splitting wards or aiming at electoral parity (the latter isn’t necessary, of course, though I’d argue that it’s desirable). Much will depend on whether their particular groupings of councils will remain intact or be overturned.

By: Calum Smith

Calum Smith — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 11:54:38 +0000

I actually hope the proposals go ahead. I mean, as Shaun says a Galloway and Carrick seat is definitely winnable for the Tories or whatever centre right party may replace them. The commission have, I think, been pretty fair to us – a first time for everything I guess!

Only thing is I dunno what’s going to happen to David Mundell…his hard-won DCT seat is gone and the resurrected Dumfries seat is almost certainly going to be won by Labour, even though, in my mind, it is fairly similar to the pre-1983 boundaries when it was of course Conservative. He could battle it out there, but he may also be in with a chance of candidacy in the Galloway/Carrick seat.

Interesting times.