Dumfries and Galloway
2005 Results:
Labour: 20924 (41.1%)
Conservative: 18002 (35.4%)
SNP: 6182 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4259 (8.4%)
Other: 1524 (3%)
Majority: 2922 (5.7%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Galloway and Upper Nithsdale.
2001 Result
Conservative: 12222 (34%)
Labour: 7258 (20.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 3698 (10.3%)
SNP: 12148 (33.8%)
Other: 588 (1.6%)
Majority: 74 (0.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12825 (30.5%)
Labour: 6861 (16.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2700 (6.4%)
SNP: 18449 (43.9%)
Referendum: 428 (1%)
Other: 755 (1.8%)
Majority: 5624 (13.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Russell Brown(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Peter Duncan (Conservative) MP for Galloway and Upper Nithsdale 2001-2005Russell Brown(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Andrew Wood (SNP) Alis Ballance (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95724
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 25.4%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.5%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 39.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 21.1% (Council: 17.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 9.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
With regard to Iain’s above predictions for my county, I would view Derby North as an easier Tory target than Erewash. As the former was not mentioned I can only assume that Iain is predicting a Labour hold. I can’t see that happening. Labour are more likely to finish third than they are to hold the seat.
And a Happy new Year to you Joe!
Still got doubts about Wirral South?
Actually I think the Conservatives have more chance of winning Wallasay than Labour has of holding Wirral South. Remember there are some serious expenses issues connected with Wirral South.
On the other hand I have serious doubts about Conservative chances in Sefton Central and Southport.
I think Barnaby raises an interesting point about a Liverpool effect but feel this applies more to the Sefton seats than those on the Wirral. Even in Birkenhead the Conservative decline was relatively much less than it was in similar areas on the other side of the river.
You could well be right Richard, but the Merseyside effect has gone quite a distance, and has probably even contributed to Labour’s winning Chester, never a Labour seat until 1997. It must be the reason why Labour still holds Wirral West. But it could be that it’s stronger on the North side of the Mersey. I don’t agree with your sentence about Wallasey & Wirral South although I do agree that the Tories are favourites in the latter.
Happy New Year to you all in the democratic parties and here’s to an exciting election campaign.
Back to the notional results issue again. I’ve tried using the 2007 Holyrood FPTP results, for which we have the results of votes cast on the day at each polling station, as a basis for estimating the 2001 GE results, using Anthony’s methodology. The results that I get for D&G and DC&T are as follows (ignoring ‘Others’):
D&G: Lab 16,369 (33.3%), Con 15,229 (31.0%), SNP 12,621 (25.7%), LD 4,943 (10.1%)
DC&T: Lab 16,603 (37.9%), Con 12,063 (27.6%), LD 8,762 (20.0%), SNP 6,342 (14.5%)
R&T’s estimate, of course, had the Tories about 1000 further ahead in D&G, and the same amount further behind in DC&T. But that’s a side issue; the point is that this estimate still has D&G as the better seat for the Tories. So what’s wrong? Not, I would argue, the estimate as a measurement of how people probably voted in 2001; rather it’s the fact that these estimates were completely irrelevant, given the radical changes in the boundaries. Labour crumbled in DC&T without Russell Brown’s personal vote, but benefited from it, and from the SNP’s collapse, in D&G. The Tories in DC&T benefited from Brown’s absence, from the incumbency vote of their own candidate (a list MSP), possibly a certain amount of tactical unwind in Tweeddale, and presumably an increased turnout in areas of strength which might not have felt motivated to vote in seats where the party stood no chance of winning.
Barnaby – surely Wirral S is just 4 miles from Lpool city centre, unlike Southport being 20. But I agree with your analysis and it may be that in the past decade voters are more likely to move up the coast to Melling, Formby etc rather than to ‘cross the Mersey.’ I think the Tories may not in fact make any gains on Merseyside (due to local Assoc infighting) of which you may be aware. You only have to read the Wirral West thread, the Southportgb blog or the Liverpool Echo for articles on members officers and cllrs sueing each other.
This will be a close race as Lab/Con swing in Scotland lower than GB as a whole.
However I think Peter Duncan will be back as the MP after a 5 year absence.
I think the SNP vote will fall further back here, given how far behind they are now compared to the notional result in 2005.
the SNP vote tactically deserted en masse to Labour last time round to keep the tories out. Half of this seat was SNP at the Scottish Parliament until 2003.
I think the ‘boo’ word in this part of the country is much more Labour than Conservative now, and stronger support generally for the SNP will keep more of their natural followers on track