Dudley South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Liberal Democrat: 5989 (15.69%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.21%)
Majority: 3856 (10.1%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15688 (44%)
Conservative: 12562 (35.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4517 (12.7%)
Other: 2857 (8%)
Majority: 3126 (8.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13556 (34.5%)
Labour: 17800 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4808 (12.2%)
BNP: 1841 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1271 (3.2%)
Majority: 4244 (10.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11292 (31.1%)
Labour: 18109 (49.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5421 (14.9%)
UKIP: 859 (2.4%)
Other: 663 (1.8%)
Majority: 6817 (18.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14097 (29.4%)
Labour: 27124 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5214 (10.9%)
Referendum: 1467 (3.1%)
Majority: 13027 (27.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Kelly (Conservative) born 1978. Educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School and Imperial College. Former researcher for Michael Howard, now Marketing Director of Keltruck, a family truck dealing firm.
Chris Kelly (Conservative) born 1978. Educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School and Imperial College. Former researcher for Michael Howard, now Marketing Director of Keltruck, a family truck dealing firm.Rachel Harris (Labour)Jonathan Brammall (Liberal Democrat)Philip Rowe (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78261
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 95.1%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 78.5%
Muslim: 1.7%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 11.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.7%
Owner-Occupied: 71%
Social Housing: 22.2% (Council: 20.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 3.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16%
We’re talking Walthamstow here Frederic. Not a Tory target at all. I should also point out that Hammersmith isn’t on the North Circular, though marginal it is indeed.
Well, there was the Walthamstow West by-election of 1967….
I’m going to post on Walthamstow no.
In fact both Walthamstow seats were gained by the Conservatives in by-elections in the 1966-1970 parliament. But as Anthony says in his description ot the Walthamstow seat it’s changed a great deal since Labour gained it in 1992 and the Tories are now weak there as well in neighbouring Leyton & Wanstead (at least the Waltham Forest part of that seat.)
Meanwhile, returning to Dudley South, it’s quite possible for Labour to lose all 4 of the Borough’s seats without the Tories gaining an outright majority. When the seats were created as they roughly are now in 1997, this seat was seen as a slightly stronger one for Labour than Dudley North, but now it’s the other way round, especially with an incumbent defending North but not here.
I think the North Circular Road is used by people who live in many different seats.
I used to work on the North Circular Road, some years ago, and I’d be happy if I never went there again in my life.
On this seat, I think it’ll be a Tory gain, given the local trends.
Thanks for the reminder, Barnaby, we ought to Have a look at Leyton too, particularly as it is in the news over its MP’s election expenses. Here goes…
I would expect this to be an AWS for Labour
And it is!!!
Dudley councillor Rachel Harris is one of the favourites IMHO
Rachel Harris has been selected as Labour candidate here
Cons Gain= 1,000 maj
CON 3500
Con Gain
Maj 1300
Con maj 1,500
CON GAIN
Which parts of this seat were in Dudley West from 1974-1997?
Does anyone think labour would still have won the 1994 by-election if it had been faught using the post 1997 boundaries?
Surely they would have done – their majority was about 20-21,000
and it was about the nadir of the government’s fortunes, with Labour about 40 points ahead (according to the old Gallup system).
I think Dudley North and Dudley South were both notional labour holds in 1997, and Stourbridge and Halesowen and Rowley Regis were labour gains..
Halesowen and Rowley Regis was a knife-edge notional Tory seat in 1992 – yes all four were Labour gains.
Stourbridge had a notional 1992 majority of about 5,000 (10%)
sorry not the Dudley seats.
“Which parts of this seat were in Dudley West from 1974-1997?”
Most of it was. Only the Netherton, Woodside and St Andrews ward was in Dudley East with the other five wards being in Dudley West. Of course these boundaries are more favourable to Labour than those of Dudley West so they would have won the by-election with a bigger percentage majority than they did in West though probably a smaller numerical majority
Chris Kelly’s maiden speech:
htttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mht2RHmOO9g&
According to Anthony, Dudley South would be Labour should the proposed boundary changes go through. The said changes must be fairly radical. Could anyone explain this?