Dudley South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15688 (44%)
Conservative: 12562 (35.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4517 (12.7%)
Other: 2857 (8%)
Majority: 3126 (8.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13556 (34.5%)
Labour: 17800 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4808 (12.2%)
BNP: 1841 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1271 (3.2%)
Majority: 4244 (10.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11292 (31.1%)
Labour: 18109 (49.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5421 (14.9%)
UKIP: 859 (2.4%)
Other: 663 (1.8%)
Majority: 6817 (18.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14097 (29.4%)
Labour: 27124 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5214 (10.9%)
Referendum: 1467 (3.1%)
Majority: 13027 (27.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Ian Pearson(Labour) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Chris Kelly (Conservative) born 1978. Educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School and Imperial College. Former researcher for Michael Howard, now Marketing Director of Keltruck, a family truck dealing firm.Rachel Harris (Labour)Philip Rowe (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78261
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 95.1%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 78.5%
Muslim: 1.7%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 11.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.7%
Owner-Occupied: 71%
Social Housing: 22.2% (Council: 20.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 3.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16%
Ian Pearson standing down
No doubt BNP and UKIP will both stand again.
We must wait to see whom Labour selects here. He or she will have a difficult job to hold the seat.
Same question as I’ve just posted for a number of marginals: are there any Cameron: “We should be doing better” NHS posters in this seat? As I’ve pointed out, sightings of this poster, and any others put up by the various parties, are useful psephological news because they indicate which seats the parties regard as being in the balance.
Well I saw one on the North Circular Road, in a safe Labour seat.
Now we’ve got to find out which seats the North Circular Road runs through, and evaluate whether they are safe Labour! After 2005 Conservative gains in East London, I am not sure I would take many seats in the North London area for granted if I were a Labour organiser.
There are marginal seats on the North Circular too – such as Hammersmith where we have just had a useful report about the Conservative poster, thanks again Coming through the Rye.
We’re talking Walthamstow here Frederic. Not a Tory target at all. I should also point out that Hammersmith isn’t on the North Circular, though marginal it is indeed.
Well, there was the Walthamstow West by-election of 1967….
I’m going to post on Walthamstow no.
In fact both Walthamstow seats were gained by the Conservatives in by-elections in the 1966-1970 parliament. But as Anthony says in his description ot the Walthamstow seat it’s changed a great deal since Labour gained it in 1992 and the Tories are now weak there as well in neighbouring Leyton & Wanstead (at least the Waltham Forest part of that seat.)
Meanwhile, returning to Dudley South, it’s quite possible for Labour to lose all 4 of the Borough’s seats without the Tories gaining an outright majority. When the seats were created as they roughly are now in 1997, this seat was seen as a slightly stronger one for Labour than Dudley North, but now it’s the other way round, especially with an incumbent defending North but not here.
I think the North Circular Road is used by people who live in many different seats.
I used to work on the North Circular Road, some years ago, and I’d be happy if I never went there again in my life.
On this seat, I think it’ll be a Tory gain, given the local trends.
Thanks for the reminder, Barnaby, we ought to Have a look at Leyton too, particularly as it is in the news over its MP’s election expenses. Here goes…
I would expect this to be an AWS for Labour
And it is!!!
Dudley councillor Rachel Harris is one of the favourites IMHO
Rachel Harris has been selected as Labour candidate here