Comments on: Dudley North

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 09:02:09 +0000

In this borough the Conservatives are defending a majority of 16. It seems unlikely to be lost this year. Labour looks likely to gain Belle Vale & Upper Gornal/Woodsetton of those seats which are being contested this year, has a decent chance in Wordsley and more of an outside chance in Amblecote & in Gornal. Further Tory losses are unlikely. Labour’s 2007 performance was short of being completely disastrous so there aren’t many easy gains to be had. Therefore it looks like CON HOLD in this year’s elections.

By: Kieran W

Kieran W — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 14:08:27 +0000

The last link I posted hasn’t appeared. The article is here: http://www.oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/parlij/gsq042.pdf

By: Kieran W

Kieran W — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 22:16:36 +0000

http://www.oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/parlij/gsq042.pdf

By: Kieran W

Kieran W — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 22:15:06 +0000

According to a recent article published in the journal Parliamentary Affairs this is the only seat in the country that was not won by the Conservatives this year but would have been had the election been conducted under AV.

It’s a very interesting article, particularly its assessment of who voters for each of the main parties would have been likely to give their second preferences to. I shall post a link to it below.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 08:54:16 +0000

exactly

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 07:25:12 +0000

As well as the Powell influence which influenced both the 1970 and 1974 electins in opposite directions (as mentioned on the Staffs South thread), the result in 1970 in Dudley would also have been skewed by the fact that the Conservatives had gained the seat in a by-eletcion in 1968. Although Labour regained it in 1970 the majority was clearly smaller than it would have been without the by-election (similar to the effect in reverse on the result in Dudley South in 1997)

By: Votedave

Votedave — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 05:28:34 +0000

Where are you getting these notional swings from Andy? Unfortunately they don’t appear in the Times Guide to the House of Commons.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:45:44 +0000

In Feb 1974 there was a notional 11.4% swing to Labour in Dudley East. The Labour majority was 26.9% which implies the notional 1970 Labour majority would have been 4.1%.

By: Robert Waller (Almanac of British Politics)

Robert Waller (Almanac of British Politics) — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 22:51:55 +0000

Also the Labour MP (Ian Pearson) retired (at the age of 50) in Dudley South.

By: TonyOtim

TonyOtim — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 21:13:19 +0000

Thanks for that Pete. That makes it clearer.