339 Responses to “Dover”

1. Shaun Bennett

   The lesson from France is surely that Ed Miliband, the wally, CAN actually win if the Conservatives are not very very careful.

   Up to now, Cameron’s apologists have been content to argue that even those cameron himself is pretty awful, he’s still much better than Miliband (which he certainly is) and therefore theres no problem.
   But they can no longer say that….H.Hemmlig.

   I can never celebrate at the prospect of one more socialist government ANYWHERE in the world. But it will be interesting to see what effect on british politics it will have when Hollande is elected, if he carries out his extremist policies (which I don’t think he will to be honest) and then the French economy collapses as the wealthy flock through the tunnel to come to live in Britain.

   Just as the French Revolution allowed the world to wake up to the danger posed and then to act against it, so the French revolution of 2012 could assist in the battle against global socialism.

   In that sense, I view the presidential election with mixed feelings.

   April 23rd, 2012 at 9:24 am
2. Tim Jones

   ‘Hollande has almost certainly proved that in these difficult economic times a nerdy, uncharismatic left-wing wonk can defeat a showy, charismatic centre-right leader. ‘

   Very true but politocally Hollande is waaay to the left of Mr Milliband – taking some absurdly left wing positions on issues that Mr Milliband would ever dare

   As much as dislike Sakorzy and think he’s an exceptionally average politocian, a Hollande presidency can only be a complete disaster for France

   Surely Sarzozy can keep in the fight by appealing to the 20% of electors who voted for the NF – although that boild down to whether such voters prefer a socialist to an immigrant

   April 23rd, 2012 at 9:41 am
3. Chris K

   Re 2015 election – I agree with Barnaby that so much could happen between now and then that it’s difficult to make an accurate prediction.

   But…..if I had to stick my neck out for 2015 I would say that the main factors will be:

   (i) Unemployment still high but perhaps falling slightly – overall beneficial for Labour but tempered slightly by a downward trend, and the fact that some (rightly or wrongly) will still blame them for it being high in the first place. LAB POSITIVE.

   (ii) Economic growth still sluggish due to debt overhang – marginal positive for Labour. The Tories will suffer as they won’t have been able to deliver what they’d hoped on debt and growth, although this again will be tempered by some appreciation that any government would have struggled through the period. LAB POSITIVE

   (iii) Perception – the Tories, again rightly or wrongly, have done little to dispel the feeling that they favour the rich. I think some of this is unfair but I can only see it being negative for them – I can’t see how they’ll have swayed any floating voters since 2010 by their stances. LAB POSITIVE

   (iv) Social conservatism – i was surprised, in 2010, how a couple of people I knew, lifelong authentic trade-union-supporting Labour voters, had voted Tory for socially conservative reasons – in short to tackle crime and anti-social behaviour (which ties into the analysis, by the regulars on this site, about WWC voting in 2010).

   My perception, and I suspect the perception of many, is that they’ve done little to address this although I appreciate that this is a broad debate with many differing, equally valid views. But I know my Labour supporting friends are disappointed on this, and I think that will hurt the Tories. LAB POSITIVE.

   (v) Cameron as leader – this is highly subjective I appreciate but, in general, I think he is probably a marginal positive. He’s got charcteristics that are negative – although it’s inverted snobbery (and therefore wrong) his background will put off many. He is quite arrogant – particulary at PMQ’s.

   But he does appear statesmanlike – and barring foreign affairs bungles between now and 2015, should continue to do so. I think he will have an incumbancy, and a credibility that EM will struggle to match. In short, agree or disagree with him, he does look like a PM. As for some of his cabinet…..well………

   TORY POSITIVE

   Overall, I am less confident of the Tories doing well in 2015 than a year ago. This is partly because of the sluggish economy (not all their fault by any means) but also because they seem to have lost their way on other issues – I think they maintained support because up until recently, voters were getting what it said on the tin. I’m not so sure that’s the case now.

   I’d be somewhat surprised if Labour won outright, but my feeling is that they will be the largest party in 2015. The only thing, in my view, that will salvage it for the Tories is if the economy rebounds more sharply and something approaching a ‘feel-good’ factor returns – or at least a general perception that things are moving decisively in the right direction. If this happens then it will make a big difference – but it’s difficult to envisage such a scenario right now.

   April 23rd, 2012 at 10:11 am
4. Shaun Bennett

   In addition to Chris’s comment, I have always thought that perhaps the news agenda with regards the international economic crisis have had an effect in keeping the Conservatives relatively popular until recently.

   However much the unions/Labour whinge about austerity, and however low growth has been, most voters have taken the view that Britain is relatively well off compared with what they have seen happening abroad.

   When we have seen riots in Athens on the news; talk about crisis in Europe; the imminent collapse of the Euro; national governments established in Italy and Greece. By comparison, whoever is governing Britain appears to be doing a pretty good job.

   Since Christmas though, the stories giving the impression of crisis abroad have eased off. And in their place have come stories of crisis at home. And Tory ratings have fallen as a result.

   Any return to talk of the economic crisis in Europe or America would therefore be to Cameron’s short term benefit. And if Hollande wins in France, that could well spark a bit of instability in European markets to Britain’s advantage.

   April 23rd, 2012 at 10:59 am
5. Tim Jones

   Up until the budget, given the sheer scale of the cuts, I think the Tories had been doing pretty well in the polls. Labour had a small lead but the poor local and by-election results for Labour since they lost the 2010 general election and serious doubts about Mr Milliband’s leadership made the Tories, in my opinion at least, odd’s on favourites to win the next election

   Touching on what Chris K said, I think that Cameron’s biggest challenge was to show people that the Tories were the party of the struggling many and not just the privaledged few and for all the rights on wrongs of cutting the top rate of tax it has only reinforced the image of the Tories as a party of the rich governing in the interests of the rich – and i reallly do think that can be enough to cost them the next election

   April 23rd, 2012 at 12:05 pm
6. Joe James B

   The top rate tax has been very poorly communicated.
   It is understood by people who are fairly business minded
   but not by a majority.
   France has a lower top rate of tax – I think almost everywhere did and we need to attract more international business and
   it would more than pay for itself.

   If we do lose in 2015 it could happen not necessarily by losing the economic arguments, but by general disillusionment that it’s been a much harder slog than expected.

   The LD > Lab swing is often mentioned – I’m not sure that’s all bad news though.
   If we can get back to the kind of position in 2011,
   it seems the Labour advance was relatively modest in Tory areas,
   leaving the Tories to pick up more from the LDs.

   It could of course go either way in 2015
   or remain hung.

   April 23rd, 2012 at 1:56 pm
7. H.Hemmelig

   I also think that the wider public may not fully understand the dire consequences of not making substantial long term cutbacks in public expenditure.

   The 2008 financial crisis took us to the brink of collapse but unlike Greece and Ireland we didn’t fall off the cliff.

   Sadly it might be inevitable that it will take one more Labour term before the public realise the utter failure of the borrow and spend model and that there is no alternative to painful cuts.

   April 23rd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
8. Joe James B

   That’s depressing.
   One would have thought that was conclusively proven this time round.

   April 23rd, 2012 at 3:37 pm
9. swanarcadian

   “I also think that the wider public may not fully understand the dire consequences of not making substantial long term cutbacks in public expenditure.”

   That seems to be the main problem the Conservatives are facing, just as it was 1979-1982. I have certainly not lost hope, however. We have still three years to go until the election, and we have got out of bigger holes than this before.

   Actually it’s probable that the wider public DO understand the economic situation and why spending must be reined in – that they are temporarily venting their frustration while it’s mid-term.
   Incidentally, Francois Hollande has promised much higher public spending. Perhaps his victory will have some benefits for David Cameron. In 2015 he may be able to say “look what happened in France when they elected a socialist.”

   The difference is that the French Socialists have been out of power for many years and the UMP has run out of time, whereas in the UK the public will be more likely to give the Conservatives another chance in the interests of British fair play – I sincerely hope so!

   April 23rd, 2012 at 4:35 pm
10. Chris K

    I agree with H Hemmelig, and also with Shaun and Tim’s comments above.

    As I said I think the Tories would have done well to just lose the 2010 election, even though it may have meant Cameron having to go. I agree entirely with HH’s comment – I don’t think people realise quite how catastrophic the management of the economy was, and you cannot keep spending in the way that Labour did.

    The global economic crisis was not Labour’s fault – or at any rate, no more their fault than any of the governments who allowed such feeble regulation (I mean, mortgage bonds marketed as AAA with a yield not far above that of sovereign bonds? How on earth did that alone not send alarm bells ringing???). But….they were still running a budget deficit (4% if I recall) after 10 years of economic growth. If you’re still borrowing at after a decade of growth, then that’s irresponsible, and it rather nullifies the ability to respond to a financial crisis.

    However HH is right – a rather passionate trade unionist contributor to QT the other night stated “we don’t want big cuts, small cuts…….we want no cuts” etc. etc.

    I had a debate in Sheffield with a Socialist Worker representative – I asked her “so how would you sort out the debt”? Her response was “well, I’d just ban the city workers from earning a salary”. I pointed out that, even if this was possible or desirable, it would only take out a small part of the deficit. Her response..”well, I don’t know, I just wouldn’t pay the debt back”.

    Her second response is, of course, a brilliant debt reduction plan. Just don’t pay it. But, it does display an astonishing lack of understanding……and as HH says, I think there are a lot of people, many of whom perhaps voted Labour in 2010 on a “job protection motive” who be likely to face a very swift reality check once in government.

    The Tories have their faults – and some of the politics they’ve indulged in recently are breathtakingly inept. But the debt reduction plan is necessary – and it may take a few left-wing governments in the western world to prove it.

    April 23rd, 2012 at 5:21 pm
11. Chris K

    Sorry e-mail above is disjointed – when I said HH is right and then talked about the woman on QT, what I meant is that she was a great example of the type of people HH describes – e.g living in economic la-la land…………

    April 23rd, 2012 at 5:27 pm
12. richard

    Not paying the debt back is a coherant strategy, its called default.

    But the consequence of which is that you would have to subsequently live within your means because nobody will ever lend you money again.

    And that is the bit the debt defaulting advocates rarely want to do. What they want to do is get rid of the debt and then immediately restart borrowing for consumption purposes.

    The underlying situation is that we now have a globalised world economy and this country (and the West generally) is now competing against peoples who are as intelligent and as educated as we are and who are are willing to work harder for less pay.

    And yet many people assume that we have some natural right to a much higher living standard than other peoples do.

    I suspect that there are element of racism and class arrogance behind this assumption.

    April 23rd, 2012 at 5:41 pm
13. richard

    Chris K

    The big influence in 2015 which you have missed will be the fear factor.

    Even when government have been dredful and clearly overdue for defeat it has saved them from disaster – most famously in 1992 but to an extent in 1997, and on the Labour side 1979 and 2010.

    April 23rd, 2012 at 5:46 pm
14. Barnaby Marder

    Extremist? Absurdly left-wing? I hardly think so. Hollande is hardly proposing to mount barricades or expropriate the bourgeoisie. Please remember that not everyone has right-wing views on this site, this isn’t supposed to be a bash-a-Leftie forum. Hollande’s policies are pretty moderate and merely call for some increased workers’ rights and an extension of industrial democracy. You could argue they are a bit to the left of Ed Miliband but he’s no wild-eyed revolutionary.

    April 23rd, 2012 at 9:20 pm
15. Chris K

    Re Barnaby’s point – fair enough, the site isn’t for bashing anyone!

    If I may briefly respond re Hollande…..I agree that he doesn’t seem extreme but, speaking as somone who works in the pension industry (and hence I know the extraordinary cost of penion schemes, and the cost sensitivity that even small increases in longevity can cause) it is bonkers……sheer lunacy….to lower the retirement age for any workers.

    Actually, it isn’t left-wing or right-wing (just like it shouldn’t be, although always is made out to be, in this country). It’s just common sense when one looks at demographic trends in many western countries.

    More widely, and trying to stay non-partisan, I note RIchard’s comment re ‘the fear factor’. I’m not sure that this will be a factor though – anyone who wasn’t scared last time is unlikely to be more scared this time? I think my point is that it wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories poll close to their 2010 performance – I think they’ll ship a few votes because of disappointment at the slow pace of economic recovery, disappointment at a lack of a more robust response to crime and ASB, and still that feeling that there are few Tory politicians that people actually warm to.

    I think the effect may be limited as I suspect the economy will start to pick up somewhat by 2015, and there may be some incumbancy effect. The Tories may gain some votes from UKIP if Europe continues to struggle, thus making further economic/political integration seem less likely. I just think, unless they took significant action on some of the issues I’ve highlighted, that it’s difficult to see where they’ll gain significant proportions of votes from.

    I think that Labour will inevitably recover – I think they’ll steal some votes back from the Tories, but more particularly will receive votes from disillusioned LD’s and to a far lesser extent, the BNP.

    My guess for 2015 (assuming slow/negligible economic growth and no unforseen circumstances e.g foreign affairs crisis, major domestic crisis):

    Conservative: 35%
    Labour: 36%
    Lib Dems: 19%
    UKIP: 2.3%
    SNP: 2.1%
    Green: 1.2%
    BNP (unfortunately): 1.2%
    Others: 3.2%

    April 23rd, 2012 at 10:28 pm
16. Shaun Bennett

    Oh give it a rest Barnaby. You don’t have to keep trotting out your sermon about not everyone on the site having right wing views. If you don’t like it, get some of your friends to come on and balance things up. Otherwise, you’ll just have to accept the balance as it stands!

    Of course Hollande is extreme. To be honest, I’m amazed Sarkozy’s team have not yet deployed the message that Hollande is the candidate that the BRITISH would like to win! If Hollande does what he says he’s going to do, we’ll see an influx of wealthy French people coming to bring us their cash and boost our economy.

    Perhaps it’s not too late! Is there anyone from the Sarkozy campaign reading this site I wonder? There is your slogan: “Hollande is the President the British want you to choose”!

    April 23rd, 2012 at 10:51 pm
17. Pete Whitehead

    Reminds me of Dennis Healey in 1987 gifting us the phrase ‘the Russians are praying for a Labour victory – absolute idiot

    April 24th, 2012 at 12:01 am
18. Joe James B

    I think Sarkozy is slipping away.
    Some of those National Front votes are basically Socialist (except on race)
    and there are other left parties to add in aswell – even Communists.

    Although it is a clean sheet of paper between the top 2, so it’s possible people may vote with their heads,
    having made the protest scare.

    I don’t particularly rate him but it’s obviously a concern that a major European country has such little stomach for the very limited reforms that he offers,
    before going yet again down this bankrupt route.

    One would have thought around 2010 that the country and even some in Europe were facing up to economic problems
    but this is a period in danger of going into early 1970s mire,
    and we need another dose of the clapped out red blooded left to bankrupt us all for good before there is a serious recovery on the right.

    (I’m partly joking – more optimistic than that).

    At least we’ve put the Lib Dems and PR in the dustbin though.

    I had a beer on the train, but not been to the pub,.

    April 24th, 2012 at 12:21 am
19. Joe James B

    when I said the country I was referring to UK

    April 24th, 2012 at 12:22 am
20. swanarcadian

    “and we need another dose of the clapped out red blooded left to bankrupt us all for good before there is a serious recovery on the right.”

    I’m starting to worry this may be proved to be true. We seem to be living in an age where people love spending money they haven’t got, and that buying a plasma screen TV and buying a car for a 17-year-old is more important than saving up for the future. Look how much the price of weddings has gone up over the past 30 or 40 years, because people just have to have the grandest day possible.

    April 24th, 2012 at 5:27 am
21. Barnaby Marder

    No Shaun I don’t accept what you say at all. You and some others constantly misuse this site by assuming everyone thinks they way you do, and preach to those of us who don’t. When you actually engage with what the site is supposed to be about, you make good & valuable contributions.

    April 24th, 2012 at 6:51 am
22. Shaun Bennett

    Heard it all many many times before. Do a Google search for “Please remember that not everyone has right-wing views on this site” (almost exactly the same words every time as if you’ve got them ready to copy and paste when required) you come up more than once.

    In general you’re right. But to abuse the site rules to close down whatever debates you don’t like is a pretty cynical tactic. You’ll just have to accept that most people on the site ARE right wing, or get some of your friends to come on to even things up.

    Don’t worry though, Anthony will no doubt edit me out for you.

    April 24th, 2012 at 8:09 am
23. Joe

    I think its more that for a serious contender for winning an election he is very left wing. I don’t think he will actually roll said policies out mind you.

    Creating a state owned investment bank, creating subidised jobs, ridiculous punitive tax plans and most staggeringly of all, reducing the state retirement age are very very left wing ideas.

    For Britains sake Id rather Hollande wins and scares wealthy expats to london.

    April 24th, 2012 at 8:26 am
24. Tim Jones

    Hollande’s whole program entails borrowing more money so France can keep the generous wellfare state their people have become accustomed to but can’t afford

    It might not be extremist but it’s a recipe for disaster

    I don’t envy the French – they had a pretty appalling choice between a socialist who doesn’t seem to have a grasp of ecomics, a more extreme socialist whose policies would bankrupt the country, the Daily Mail endorsed National Front, and the dislikeable and arrogant Sarkozy with a decisively mediocre record in government

    I don’t know anuything about the centrist candidate Bayou but were I French I’d probably back him simply because he wasn’t one of the other four

    April 24th, 2012 at 9:30 am
25. davem

    One simple question.

    What has any of this debate got to do with the VI in Dover. I enjoy looking at the active posts on different seats to get a flavour of how other parts of the UK are feeling.

    Can we please have these national debates in the open forum and keep Dover for Dover.

    Or is it that a number of posters have moved here as there views will be challanged on the main page. If we you belive what you say here say it to the whole site not just to yourself!

    April 24th, 2012 at 10:41 am
26. swanarcadian

    Going off topic is allowed isn’t it?
    Dover, the gateway to the UK, seemed the logical place to talk about elections on the other side of the Channel. Calais used to elect MPs to the old English Parliament, after all, as did Tournai.

    Actually, DaveM, a lot of people posting on the home page threads never garner a response, whereas they are more likely to do so here. It could be a bad manners, to some extent, but too many people post there.
    At the moment it seems to be mostly sanctimonious, irritating lefties back slapping each other and chatting amongst themselves – jumping on any newcomers who disagree with them and then having the cheek to accuse them of partisanship.
    At least on the constituency threads, comments are more in-depth and knowledgeable.

    April 24th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
27. Barnaby Marder

    Shaun – we’ll have to agree to differ. Just one thing – I may be many things; you can call me a Trot, a Red, even a Communist, but a cynic I most definitely am not!

    April 24th, 2012 at 5:10 pm
28. Joe James B

    I agree with Swancardian about the Home/Opinion Poll threads.

    In my view, it needs to be sorted out.

    The rudeness of some of those characters – treating it as their own chat line,
    whilst having the nerve to tick off the small minority from other parties or newcomers for disobeying the gang rules or even accuse other people of being partisan.

    They don’ t like facts being laid before them either.

    April 24th, 2012 at 9:49 pm
29. swanarcadian

    Hollande won the presidency with 51.7%, Sarkozy got 48.3%.

    More or less the same margin as Boris & Ken, but the other way round…

    May 6th, 2012 at 10:01 pm
30. swanarcadian

    European scientists will need to design money trees, pretty sharpish.

    May 6th, 2012 at 10:14 pm
31. Andrea

    Labour have selected Clair Hawkins as their PPC. She has been a Cllr in Tower Hamlets between 2006 and 2010. Her parents. I think her mother is a councillor in Dover DC while her father was also a candidate last year.

    May 26th, 2012 at 6:18 pm
32. Joe James B

    Ed Balls has been allocated this seat as a kind of minder.
    Harriet Harman has been allocated a seat in Milton Keynes,
    and Chuka U somewhere else.

    October 5th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
33. A Cairns

    2015

    Con 45
    Lab 39
    LD 8
    Others 8

    Turnout 70%

    November 24th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
34. Gabriella Coscia

    My betting is that this will fall back to Labour if current trends persist as Charlie Elphicke is seen as very unpopular locally and not having done much in the near three years he has been elected locally for the area.

    There will be a lot of anger against the tories locally over the Sholden Housing Development, the proposed closure of clinics and possibly Deal Hospital, the lack of progress over Betteshanger Business Park, the appalling state of both Deal and Dover Town Centres and profileration of charity shops. My betting is Claire Hawkins will win it barring a significant change economically in the economy for the tories and Elphicke will be an ex MP for what is now the Dover and Deal seat following the welcome boundary change. So I say Labour will take the seat which they need too to form the next government with a majority.

    November 29th, 2012 at 9:09 pm
35. Joe

    Prettty unlikely to be honest. There will be a below average swing here, with a poor LD vote that doesnt have any tactical voters in it and the demograhpics arent going labours way.

    December 7th, 2012 at 11:02 am
36. Tim Jones

    I’m 9inclined to agree with Joe – I think Labour have a better chance of taking South Thanet – one of the most deprived areas in the whole of the UK according to the local news

    Even the Medway towns, and the working class towns of North Kent – Dartford, Gravesend – look beyond their reach (for the first time since the 1980s in post-war Britain)

    If they decided to adopt Maurice Glasman’s recommendations I’m sure they would have a better chance in such places – but under Ed Milliband that looks unlikely as ever

    December 7th, 2012 at 12:41 pm
37. Joe

    Thanet South is considerably less likely to be gained than this seat. The tory vote is TS is higher than the Lab and Lib combined, and as such the direct Con-Lab swing would have to be considerable, which looks unlikely.

    December 7th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
38. Tory

    In 2010, Labour’s vote was 21% points down on 1997 and the Conservative vote was up 11% points. I think Labour is swimming against the tide somewhat here.

    December 7th, 2012 at 1:53 pm
39. Tory

    Joe: Yes, Thanet South is currently the safer seat. Labour would require an 8% swing to take it- like you, I consider that unlikely. Saying that, Dover swung far more dramatically in the Conservatives’ favour than Thanet South did (since 1997). This makes me wonder if Dover will be the safer seat by 2025 or so.

    December 7th, 2012 at 2:19 pm