Dover
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21979 (45.4%)
Conservative: 16918 (34.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7652 (15.8%)
Other: 1901 (3.9%)
Majority: 5061 (10.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16739 (35%)
Labour: 21680 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7607 (15.9%)
UKIP: 1252 (2.6%)
Other: 606 (1.3%)
Majority: 4941 (10.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16744 (37.2%)
Labour: 21943 (48.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5131 (11.4%)
UKIP: 1142 (2.5%)
Majority: 5199 (11.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17796 (32.8%)
Labour: 29535 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4302 (7.9%)
Referendum: 2124 (3.9%)
Other: 443 (0.8%)
Majority: 11739 (21.7%)
Boundary changes: only minimal adjustments to take account of ward boundary changes. This affected the wards of Little Stour and Middle Deal.
Profile: a diverse seat with a political tradition which includes coal mining, seaside resorts, a major port and some desirable surrounding countryside. The strong Labour presence in the centre of Dover itself made this Labour`s best target seat in Kent well before the 1997 election and in a county of ultra-marginals it is Labour`s safest seat. The seat consists of the towns of Dover, Deal and the surrounding countryside.
Outgoing MP: Gwyn Prosser(Labour) born 1943, Swansea. Marine engineer in the merchant navy, who worked as a chief engineer on Sealink ferries prior to his election. Dover councillor 1987-1997. Contested Dover in 1992. First elected as MP for Dover in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Charlie Elphicke (Conservative) Educated at Felstead School and Nottingham university. Partner in an international legal firm, specialising in taxation. Research fellow at the CPS. Contested St Albans 2001.Gwyn Prosser(Labour) born 1943, Swansea. Marine engineer in the merchant navy, who worked as a chief engineer on Sealink ferries prior to his election. Dover councillor 1987-1997. Contested Dover in 1992. First elected as MP for Dover in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
John Brigden (Liberal Democrat) Car rally organiser. Sevenoaks councillor.
Victor Matcham (UKIP)Mike Walters (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91637
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 23.9%
Born outside UK: 5%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 76.4%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 13.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 71.3%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 4.7%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
Any idea why the Tory % fell here in 2005? (Over and above LD % increasing due to ‘Iraq’ Labour voters, of course)
I have family in Dover, aquaintances of Gwyn Prosser’s who have voted for him in the past but who now will vote Tory to get Brown out.I think MP’s have very few personal votes when times are hard.I wouldn’t vote for my best friend if it meant keeping in a Govt i wanted rid of.
As there has been recent discussion about High Speed trains in relation to next door Ashford, perhaps I can report that there is currently a campaign to extend the new service from Dover to Deal: apparently the trains go through on the way to the depot at Ramsgate, so all that would need doing, assuming the train rosters have a little bit of spare capacity, is to change the timetable.
There are also reports that the Dover Harbour Board, which has been a self-financing body for 400 years, is planning to sell itself off. I believe both the major parties are opposed, and I am sure the vast majority of electors here will be too. I can hardly imagine a more disgusting example of selling off assets that were never built up by central government in the first place, and the idea is also very alarming because of the strategic importance for the UK of the port of Dover.
People went up in arms in the 1980s when Labour suggested nationalisation without compensation. I find it very puzzling that privatisation without full compensation, in this case to Dover where the initial capital was provided long ago, is not made equally electorally impossible by force of public opinion.
There are plenty of other assets elsewhere in the UK, such as the Forth Road Bridge, which actually were built with central government money and which, if the UK is forced to sell assets, should go long before Dover Harbour.
Although the LibDems got an Iraq boost here in 2005 as Lancs Observer notes, I am surprised there was such a small Lab/Con swing. Is there a possible reason for this please?
This is a point to bear in mind. This just casts a doubt in my mind of the expected Con gain this time.
The Lib Dems have selected Chris Brigden here
Matt: Lib dem National web site has John Brigden for Dover. Are you sure it is Chris?
Sorry it is John Brigden
The BNP have selected Dennis Whiting here
Dennis Whiting has been a lone voice for the BNP in East Kent for a considerable time, but I don’t think he comes from this constituency. Actually, the established parties have worked hard to keep the BNP out here, and have shown a more realistic understanding of the problems of immigration than in many other places. After all, here the realities of immigration are present for all to see, with correspondingly limited places for either prejudice or naive idealism. See my post last September.
So far as I know, the major question here is still the possible sale of the docks, which is a stand-off politically because none of the major parties is standing out to protect the ownership of this historic asset.
I think that many people have written off this seat for Labour. However, recent moves in the opinion polls bring this seat right into the knife-edge category . But there again, local and European results here suggest that Labour may have to work hard in this seat to limit the swing against them to below the national average. This seat needs watching now.
I’ve always voted Labour and live in Whitfield, a village outside Dover. I think the Tory will win in this area. The current Labour MP, Gwyn Prosser, has lost a huge amount of credibility; his Party has proposed privatizing the port of Dover and he’s supporting a proposal for thousands of new houses to be built locally, both of which local residents overwhelmingly oppose.
The Tories seem to be very active, in fact I saw their PPC knocking on doors in my village this weekend – he’ll probably end up getting my vote for the first time whenever the election comes.