Dorset South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22667 (45.05%)
Labour: 15224 (30.26%)
Liberal Democrat: 9557 (19%)
UKIP: 2034 (4.04%)
Green: 595 (1.18%)
Others: 233 (0.46%)
Majority: 7443 (14.79%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 20231 (41.6%)
Conservative: 18419 (37.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7647 (15.7%)
Other: 2287 (4.7%)
Majority: 1812 (3.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18874 (41.6%)
Labour: 19027 (42%)
Liberal Democrat: 6531 (14.4%)
UKIP: 913 (2%)
Majority: 153 (0.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17755 (36.1%)
Labour: 17678 (35.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9936 (20.2%)
Referendum: 2791 (5.7%)
Other: 1022 (2.1%)
Majority: 77 (0.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Richard Drax (Conservative) born 1958, the scion of the Drax family who were MPs for Wareham for much of the 18th and 19th century. Educated at Harrow and RMA Sandhurst. Former journalist and Captain in the Coldstream Guards, now running the family estate.
Richard Drax (Conservative) born 1958, the scion of the Drax family who were MPs for Wareham for much of the 18th and 19th century. Educated at Harrow and RMA Sandhurst. Former journalist and Captain in the Coldstream Guards, now running the family estate.
Jim Knight(Labour) Born 1965, Bexley. Educated at Eltham College and Cambridge University. Mendip councillor 1997-2001. Contested Dorset South 1997. MP for Dorset South since 2001. Parliamentary under secretary for rural affairs 2005-2006, Minister of State for Schools since 2006 (more information at They work for you)
Ros Kayes (Liberal Democrat) College lecturer. West Dorset councillor since 2007.
Brian Heatley (Green) Former maths teacher and civil servant.
Mike Hobson (UKIP)
Andy Kirkwood (Movement for Active Democracy)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89887
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 26.1%
Born outside UK: 4.9%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 75.5%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.1%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 12.7% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 7.1%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.9%
In 2001, there was a fashion for giving the Tories an extra good kicking.
There clearly is a Labour vote which can be motivated to come out here, and the Lib Dem vote may retreat to about 12%.
But it’s also the kind of territory where the Tories recovered better than average – if things come right for them I can see both parties moving up a few points each and the Cons being 6-10,000 ahead.
I don’t think Ian Bruce’s defeat was any reflection on him personally.
He is now serving as councillor for Preston ward on Weymouth & Portland Borough council, as is his wife Hazel.
ht tp://webapps-wpbc.dorsetforyou.com/apps/democracy/councillors.asp
What happens to the Lib Dem vote here is an interesting question, especially in the areas outside Weymouth where the Lib Dems are the main opposition to the Tories.
There has been a good deal of tactical voting here in the past (in both directions Lab->Lib, Lib->Lab) but how the coalition will affect this is unclear. The Lib Dem support is pretty heterogeneous I think and could split several ways.