Derby South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20739 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7980 (21.3%)
Conservative: 7080 (18.9%)
Other: 1699 (4.5%)
Majority: 12759 (34%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8211 (18.9%)
Labour: 19683 (45.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 14026 (32.3%)
UKIP: 845 (1.9%)
Other: 608 (1.4%)
Majority: 5657 (13%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10455 (24.3%)
Labour: 24310 (56.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8310 (19.3%)
Majority: 13855 (32.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13048 (25.2%)
Labour: 29154 (56.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7438 (14.4%)
Referendum: 1862 (3.6%)
Other: 317 (0.6%)
Majority: 16106 (31.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Margaret Beckett(Labour) born 1943, Ashton-under-Lyne. Educated at Notre Dame High School and UMIST. Contested Lincoln February 1974, elected as MP for Lincoln in October 1974, under her maiden name Margaret Jackson. PPS to Judith Hart 1974-1975, government whip 1975-1976, Under-secretary of state for Education 1976-1979, when she lost her seat. First elected as MP for Derby South, now as Margaret Beckett, in 1983. Deputy leader of the Labour party from 1992-1994. She was briefly leader of the Labour party following John Smith`s death in 1994, she unsuccessfully contested both the subsequent leadership and deputy leadershup elections. Shadow health secretary 1994-1995, Shadow President of the Board of Trade 1995-1997, President of the Board of Trade 1997-1998, Leader of the House of Commons 1998-2001, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2001-2006, Foriegn Secretary 2006-2007. She left the government following Gordon Brown`s appointment as Prime Minister, but returned briefly to government as Minister of State for Housing between 2008-2009. Unsuccessfully stood as Speaker in 2009 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Jack Perschke (Conservative) Educated at Chichester High School. Former infantry officer, serving in Canada, Bosnia and Cyprus. Data Business advisor for Ernst and Young.Margaret Beckett(Labour) born 1943, Ashton-under-Lyne. Educated at Notre Dame High School and UMIST. Contested Lincoln February 1974, elected as MP for Lincoln in October 1974, under her maiden name Margaret Jackson. PPS to Judith Hart 1974-1975, government whip 1975-1976, Under-secretary of state for Education 1976-1979, when she lost her seat. First elected as MP for Derby South, now as Margaret Beckett, in 1983. Deputy leader of the Labour party from 1992-1994. She was briefly leader of the Labour party following John Smith`s death in 1994, she unsuccessfully contested both the subsequent leadership and deputy leadershup elections. Shadow health secretary 1994-1995, Shadow President of the Board of Trade 1995-1997, President of the Board of Trade 1997-1998, Leader of the House of Commons 1998-2001, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2001-2006, Foriegn Secretary 2006-2007. She left the government following Gordon Brown`s appointment as Prime Minister, but returned briefly to government as Minister of State for Housing between 2008-2009. Unsuccessfully stood as Speaker in 2009 (more information at They work for you)
David Batey (Liberal Democrat) Works for Rolls Royce. Derby councillor.
David Black (English Democrat)
The Flying Brick (Official Monster Raving Loony) Real name Nick Delves. Shadow Minister for the Abolition of Gravity. Contested Derbyshire West 1997, 2001, 2005, Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008.
Alan Graves (Independent) Born 1963, Mansfield. Educated at Harvey Grammar School. Director of a computer company. Derby councillor since 1995-2000 and since 2002, originally elected as Labour.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93165
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 26.1%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 12.5%
White: 78%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 16%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 60.2%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 9.3%
Sikh: 5.8%
Full time students: 3.8%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.3%
Owner-Occupied: 62.3%
Social Housing: 26.2% (Council: 17%, Housing Ass.: 9.1%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14.1%
I apologise if you think it was a personal and vicious post, I promise that was not my intention. I find it difficult to believe though that there aren’t many volunteers/canvassers with the organisation he has behind him. What I meant was that a candidate from Derby wouldn’t have to ask for help regarding the issues, they would be aware of them. And he has started off on the wrong foot implying he is a Derby person.
I’d agree that it doesn’t look like he is a “Derby person” – he is after all a councillor in Runnymede (Surrey), and nothing on his biography says that he has any connection with Derby.
However that does not mean he is a bad candidate, and surely the fact that he is getting himself immersed in the issues in Derby South (which lets be honest is an unwinnable seat), shows that he is putting effort in, rather than just being a paper candidate.
Margaret Beckett has said that a hung parliament is the most likely result of the next election.
Not sure I’d agree with that – probably not very helpful to the Labour leadership.
Yes her comments have the disadvantages of being both unlikely to happen and unhelpful to her party.
She is standing as Speaker, because if she wins she will go uncontested for her somewhat marginal seat
“She is standing as Speaker, because if she wins she will go uncontested for her somewhat marginal seat”
She has 55% of the vote and a lead of 34% of the vote, there aren’t all that many seats that are safer than that.
If the most her nearest challenger could come up with is 7000 voters last time, it seems unlikely that she is now suddenly ‘running scared’ and trying to sneak into parliament uncontested.
City seats like this are probably safer for Labour than supposedly safe ones in old industrial zones, including East Midlands ex-coal mining seats, where people appear to be finally turning against middle-class New Labour for deliberately assuming they can take the workers for granted.
Labour’s vote in this new seat is about 20% higher than nationally so if they fall below 50% here it could mean they’re heading for less than 30% overall. So if it comes through early on the night it’ll be interesting to take note of Labour’s share as a possible guide to how they’re going to do.
The Lib Dems have selected David Batey, a Derby Councillor.
It’s interesting (but sad for me as an urban Tory) that our vote in many city seats is far less than even in the 1997 wipeout. I’ve counted 60 such seats! This can’t be just due to lower turnouts surely?! Here, we polled 13,000 in 1997 and the Tory PPC here would have to add over 5,000 votes just to get back to the 1997 position.
Its been down to the Lib Dems squeezing the anti-labour vote (as well as the Labour vote itself).
Lets see what happens at the next election – I suspect the Conservative vote will bounce back somewhat in seats like Derby South
Strong labour voters will find it hard to vote Conservative and are more likely to vote LibDem for a candidate who has been a local councillor and who lives in the area. I am not a fan of Beckett but apparently she works hard for her constituents, always answering their queries and assisting them so she may have a stronger core vote than we think despite expense issues. I usually vote Tory but I met Jack Persckhe and found him rather lacking in substance, not dynamic at all and more of a PR/talk guy so I am not convinced by him plus I agree his website etc doesn’t reveal a candidate who is really knowledgeable about the area. I think Beckett will retain the seat.
So what do we think now? What are everybody’s predictions given recent events? And more importantly, what do voters think about the candidates themselves?