Derbyshire South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22935 (45.49%)
Labour: 15807 (31.35%)
Liberal Democrat: 8012 (15.89%)
BNP: 2193 (4.35%)
UKIP: 1206 (2.39%)
Socialist Labour: 266 (0.53%)
Majority: 7128 (14.14%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19892 (43.9%)
Conservative: 17159 (37.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5938 (13.1%)
Other: 2337 (5.2%)
Majority: 2733 (6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20328 (36.4%)
Labour: 24823 (44.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7600 (13.6%)
BNP: 1797 (3.2%)
Other: 1272 (2.3%)
Majority: 4495 (8.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18487 (35.6%)
Labour: 26338 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5233 (10.1%)
UKIP: 1074 (2.1%)
Other: 813 (1.6%)
Majority: 7851 (15.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18742 (31.3%)
Labour: 32709 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5408 (9%)
Referendum: 2491 (4.2%)
Other: 617 (1%)
Majority: 13967 (23.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Heather Wheeler (Conservative) born 1959. Former specialist in Professional Indemnity insurance. Former Wandsworth Borough councillor. South Derbyshire district councillor since 1995 and Leader of the Conservative Group. Contested Coventry South in 2001 & 2005.
Heather Wheeler (Conservative) born 1959. Former specialist in Professional Indemnity insurance. Former Wandsworth Borough councillor. South Derbyshire district councillor since 1995 and Leader of the Conservative Group. Contested Coventry South in 2001 & 2005.
Michael Edwards (Labour) born Hanwood. Educated at the University of Birmingham. Former computer programmer and project manager for British Rail. Nottingham councillor and former Deputy leader of Nottingham council. Nottinghamshire county councillor 1993-1998.
Alexis Diouf (Liberal Democrat) Chesterfield councillor.
Charles Swabey (UKIP) Peter Jarvis (BNP) Paul Liversuch (Socialist Labour) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81562
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 97.2%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 78.2%
Sikh: 1.3%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 17.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.6%
Owner-Occupied: 79.6%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 10.2%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
The boundary changes reduce the tory majority to roughly 4000 here but I would make the tories at least narrow favourites to hold on.
Yes, but it depends what the situation is at the time.
This is one of those Midlands seats where majorities don’t mean a lot.
It’s interesting how this area has produced pretty towering majorities at times yet seems to come back to a cross-over point again whenever the national situation changes.
(Although there have been boundary changes over the years of course – all favouring Labour).
Joe’s point about the volatility of some seats including this one is a good one. In 1997 this seat voted Labour (against a well-known incumbent of 14 years’ standing) by about 32,000 to 18,000, and clearly the seat has swung disproportionately to the Tories since then, just as many other seats have. Equally many seats swung disproportionately to Labour in 1997 including this one. Such volatility can easily mean a violent swing back in the other direction.
I think she had rather given up the fight.
One could be forgiven for thinking Labour would never win here after the results in the 1980s
or the Tories couldn’t after 1997.
But there’s a track record of it coming back to the national position and somewhat magnifying it.
Pete,
could you do an estimate of how the 1992 seat
voted in 2010?
That shouldn’t be too difficult. I’ll have a crack this evening
Con 30996 43.4%
Lab 23444 32.8%
LD 12273 17.2%
Oth 4771 6.7%
Maj 7552 10.6%
So a slightly larger numerical majority but more marginal in percentage terms. I think back int he 80s the Derby wards were genrally held to be more Tory than the South Derbyshire base but this is no longer the case.
From 1983 to 1997 South Derbyshire consisted of the South Derbyshire district (which is now coterminous with this seat) together with the Boulton, Chellaston and Mickleover wards of Derby. Mickleover was removed in 1997 and the other two wards in 2010.
By my reckonings (and its fairly easy to tell since local elections were held in all Derby wards on the same day) Boulton would have voted heavily Labour and Chellaston quite safely Tory so that those two wards (now in Derby South) together were fairly well balanced, but with an overall Labour lead of about 400. These wards have similar boundaries to those in force at the time that they were in this seat.
Mickleover is a little more complicated. While there is still a Mickleover ward, the boundaries are very different to those in force at the time so the then Micklover ward comprises about half the current Mickleover ward and about half the current Littleover ward. I have no knowledge of the internal electoral geography of those wards so have had to crudely assign votes from those wards in equal proportions. My notionals for the old Mickleover ward then suggest that it would have been narrowly carried by the LDs over the Conservatives but with the Conservatives about 800 votes ahead of Labour
“I think back in the 80s the Derby wards were generally held to be more Tory than the South Derbyshire base but this is no longer the case.”
Rather similar to Colne Valley and Bury South.
But would the ‘Nottingham’ part of Rushcliffe, ie West Bridgeford, have been more Conservative than Rushcliffe as a whole?
What would have been the result in 2010 on the 1970 Belper boundaries?
And what would have been the result in 1959 in the present Leicestershire NW constituency?
Fascinating figures Pete – thanks.
Interesting that the Conservative percentage majority is reduced than the current version of the seat – against the trend of the boundary change after 1992 (for 1995/7).
Your explanation about the Derby City wards makes sense to me.
The Tories are still 5.4% below 1992 on those figures, 5.8% below 1987,
but about the same as in 1983, and probably up a bit on 1979.
I expect a lot of Tories from Derby will have moved out to the villages in Derbyshire South over the last few decades.
True – although it is a “City” where the Tories have still held up relatively well compared to most.
Is there any example of a partly urban, partly ex-urban constituency such as this where the urban part has become more Conservative since 1992?
“True – although it is a “City” where the Tories have still held up relatively well compared to most.”
Derby’s not really a public sector or retail/leisure city in the way that Nottingham or Sheffield are.
Instead it has a lot of large scale engineering companies which nowadays would boost the Conservatives.
In fact Derby (or it might have been Derbyshire) has the highest per capita added value (or it might have been exports) in the country. Can’t quite remember the exact facts
“Is there any example of a partly urban, partly ex-urban constituency such as this where the urban part has become more Conservative since 1992?”
I doubt there are many, if any, One possibility is Suffolk Central & Ipswich North,
“What would have been the result in 2010 on the 1970 Belper boundaries?”
I don’t know in detail, but I think most of the current Mid Derbyshire seat would have been included as well as most of this seat, so pretty safely Tory (not in 1997/2001 though) and with a massive electorate
“And what would have been the result in 1959 in the present Leicestershire NW constituency?”
Again I can only speculate, but I would have thought not far off 60% Labour
“But would the ‘Nottingham’ part of Rushcliffe, ie West Bridgeford, have been more Conservative than Rushcliffe as a whole?”
I think up until some point in the 1980s
Labour vote is about the same as in 1987
Tory vote about the same as in 1983 – but not recovered the extra support of 1987/92.
Given what Pete has uncovered about the Derby proportion of the old seat, it would be interesting to see the reverse -
the 1992 result on the 2010 seat.
That shouldn’t be too difficult. I’ll have a crack this evening
And the result is slightly surprising
Lab 22060 46.8%
Con 21354 45.3%
LD 3569 7.6%
Oth 167 0.4%
Really too close to call – could be a Tory lead of maybe upto 1,000, but its clear that most of Currie’s majority in 1992 came from the Derby wards. The Tories were doing quite well in Derby local elections in ther late 80s and early 90s so it may flatter their position slightly, but they were on over 60% in Chellaston and Mickleover in the local elections of 1991 – at the same time they won about 40% in South Derbyshire district, the same as Labour (the picture there is a little confused by Independents. Boulton did not vote in 1991 but the Conservatives won there in 1992 (when they had 70% in Chellaston) and were only 12% behind even in 1990 (compared with 28% in 2010). So by estimation Labour would have narrowly carried Boulton in 1992 and the Conservatives would have won Chellaston and Mickleover by a huge margin. Boulton and Chellaston have swung to Labour since then while Mickleover has seen the Lib Dems take a lot of Tory support (which cost them victory in Derby North in 2010 incidentally)
Thanks Pete, that is a surprising result.
Derby City was a Con gain in 1988 – I think it was strengthened in 1992 but fell by the wayside in 1994.
So the Tories have increased (0.2%) in 2010 compared to 1992.
It does now make sense.
but
Why do you think these wards in Derby started swinging to the right in the later 80s/early 90s?
Was there some change in the area?
So to summarise
These are the majorities
1992 2010
Large seat Con 6.6% Con 10.6%
This seat Lab 1.5% Con 14.1%
(Large seat being the 1992 version of the seat
with those Derby City wards).
So basically, there has been a much bigger swing in the section outside Derby City – to the point the Tory vote has actually increased against 1992.
In Derby City it suggests a modest swing to the Tories
but with their vote down less than Labour (and the LDs up).
I think it wa slocal issues in Derby in the late 80s, specifically I seem to recall there was considerable resentment of the Labour run county council. The Tories did extraodinarily well in Derby in 1988 actually doing slightly better then than they did in 1992 which is very unusual. They also carried the town handily enough in the 1989 county council elections and held up reltaively well in 1990
Perhaps they were friends of Bookbinder
or maybe they copied some of the best practice from London (“idiots” – Joe Ashton’s words – not mine – “they can’t even win by-elections”).
Thanks for the figures – I was aware of Tory success in Derby arriving relatively late – Thatcher’s third term, and Major until 1992,
but hadn’t realised it was this dramatic.
The Conservatives lost their overall majority in Derby in 1991 when it went 22 Con 22 Lab. I presume they held on with the Mayors casting vote (although the Conservatives won the popular vote in 1991 they won only 6 seats to Labour’s 9, losing 2 seats compared with 1987). The balance remained the same – 22/22 after the 1992 elections as though the Conservatives did very well they were defending their very strong position from 1988 and there was no change
Yes, I’m pretty sure they ran it with the Mayor. They had effective control until 1994.
I wonder whether some (not all) of the increased Tory vote in Derbyshire South in 1987 and 1992 was partly related to Derby City Council,
although it often did rise in (marginal) seats in 1987 and hold up in 1992
As Richard said upthread, Derby is quite an atypical east midland town. It was and is dominated by large-scale engineering and high-tech manufacturing companies, much of which was in the private sector even in the 1980s. The large base of highly skilled private sector workers would have made the nicer bits of the town very susceptible to supporting Mrs Thatcher in those years.
Major employers are Rolls Royce, the railways (Bombardier as well as other smaller workshops) and Toyota. Edwina Currie noisily claimed credit for Toyota arriving in the late-80s and this would probably have helped her result in 1992.
Bombardier has been rescued from the worst-case scenario at least, and though we don’t hear much about it, both Rolls Royce and Toyota are doing pretty well with strong export orders. Having been in trouble a few years back, Toyota is hiring people again and in general Derby remains a prosperous town due to its mixed economy.
Unlike the north of Derbyshire the city of Derby was not related to coal mining therefore did not suffer from the disappearance of this industry (although there was a modest amount of coal mining in South Derbyshire). Derby did not have the bad luck of Nottingham to its east, which lost all its major industries (cigarette manufacture, Raleigh cycles, lace and textiles).
Joe is also correct that Derby did not like David Bookbinder, who depressed the Labour vote right across the county.
It should be remembered when considering the Conservative position in this constituency that the council had always been Labour controlled until 2007 but that the Conservatives still managed to keep control in 2011.
So there’s definately been a long term shift to the Conservatives here, what proportion that is due to demographic shifts and what proportion to political shifts I don’t know.
Perhaps Pete could compare how South Derbyshire council was electorally compared to the national vote. Joe would like to see the lack of LibDems.
IIRC 1988 was the last time that the Conservatives had control of Nottingham.
It was 28-28 Conservative and Labour councillors (or something similar) and a Communist who backed the Conservatives.
I wonder if Pete could give a comparison of Conservative performances in Derby and Nottingham.
Personally I’ve never regarded Derby as a city but as a large industrial town. A view which I think makes sense of the continuing Conservative strength there.
Although the Tories haven’t won a seat in Derby since 1992 unless you count Mid Derbyshire in 2010.
“Personally I’ve never regarded Derby as a city but as a large industrial town.”
Which is what Derby officially was until it was made into a city in 1977.
The best description of Derby is a large railway town that was not completely dependent on the railways. In this way it very closely resembles Swindon, and to some extent York, and there are good political parallels with these towns too.
Derby has fared better than those other railway towns like Crewe, Doncaster and Darlington, which were less diversified.
So are the demographics of this seat still favourable towards Labour?
I’ve always thought Swadlincote was a fairly working class town. Is this still the case?
I guess Derbyshire can by seen as a microcosm of Britain in general, with a fairly affluent south, and a more working class north.
Is Derbyshire a county council that the tories will realistically be able to hold onto in 2013?
Its more of a East/West than a North/South divide.
Re: your last question – it was a big surprise that the Conservatives actually won a majority in 2009. I think their chances of repeating that in 2013 are minimal to say the least
Even east/west doesn’t describe the divide very accurately.
It is more like the north-east versus the rest of the county.
In all three of the north-eastern districts, the Tories have no representation at all in either Chesterfield or Bolsover, and in north-east Derbyshire only in a few wards which border the peak district.
In the rest of Derbyshire, including on the eastern side further south, the Tories are very competitive, except in the poorest bits of Derby itself.
I agree with that about the North East.
I wonder if a future local government review will transfer those distircts to Nottighamshire or will create a North East Derbyshire unitary authority.
I bet the tories in the rest of Derbyshire will love that.
That may happen if a future Labour government get to develop their city regions policy, and the 3 distircts in NE Derbyshire could become part of a Sheffield city region along with the Hope Valley.
A north-east Derbyshire unitary council has been suggested before and in many ways I think it is a good idea.
There is however zero chance of these districts moving into Nottinghamshire, and even less chance they will become part of a greater Sheffield.
The latter may make some sense in theory for at least the area north of Chesterfield…but local residents would not go along with it. Many times the sensible idea that Dronfield should go into South Yorkshire has been mooted and each time locals have successfully killed it.
Hemmelig, I don’t know where you get this idea from that somehow a Derbyshire-S Yorkshire boundary running between Chesterfield and Dronfield is somehow inherently more sensible than one running between Dronfield and Sheffield. It isn’t, and it wasn’t considered as being so in the Redcliffe-Maude report that led up to the radical changes of the 1972 Local Government Act. It instead proposed that Derbyshire should lose Glossop but gain Burton on Trent.
Much as I personally would like to see North East Derbyshire District abolished in some way (I believe it to be a totally illogical grouping of areas), I just don’t see that there is any great appetite anywhere for radical reform of the structure of local government in north Derbyshire. That includes the shifting of county boundaries.
I would take Kieran’s advice on this, and suspect I agree anyway – I strongly doubt there’s much appetite for wholesale reform.
It would be interesting, however, how Totley would vote if it was moved out of Sheffield into Derbyshire.
In the declaration of this seat (Which can be seen on You Tube in the form of the BBC’s 1997 Election Coverage) the returning officer sounded quite Northern. Would I be right in saying that some of the ex-mining parts of Derbyshire further South have residents speaking with a distinct Working-Class East Midlands accent, similar to that of Dennis Skinner?