Derbyshire North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15503 (32.96%)
Labour: 17948 (38.16%)
Liberal Democrat: 10947 (23.27%)
UKIP: 2636 (5.6%)
Majority: 2445 (5.2%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19954 (48.7%)
Conservative: 10862 (26.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8409 (20.5%)
Other: 1758 (4.3%)
Majority: 9093 (22.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11351 (26.1%)
Labour: 21416 (49.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 8812 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1855 (4.3%)
Majority: 10065 (23.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11179 (26.5%)
Labour: 23437 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 7508 (17.8%)
Majority: 12258 (29.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13104 (25.2%)
Labour: 31425 (60.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7450 (14.3%)
Majority: 18321 (35.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Natascha Engel(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Huw Merriman (Conservative) Wealden councillor.Natascha Engel(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Richard Bull (Liberal Democrat) James Bush (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88909
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 21.2%
Over 60: 23.4%
Born outside UK: 1.8%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 80%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 15.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.7%
Owner-Occupied: 71.9%
Social Housing: 22.9% (Council: 21.8%, Housing Ass.: 1.1%)
Privately Rented: 3.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.2%
That’s true. The Conservative vote went up, but Labour’s rose even more sharply. It therefore follows that the LDs plunged.
Here is the full Gosforth Valley by-election result:
Con 416 (37.1; +8.0)
Lab 354 (31.6; +13.3)
LD 350 (31.3; -21.3)
Majority 62
Turnout 26.17%
Con gain from LD
Percentage change is since May 2007
Just flicking through the NE Derbys District results from the last all out elections (and the Unstone Ward by-election that the Lib Dems won two years ago) they are going to struggle to retain any of their council seats next year on the basis of this result.
Well done.
Did you help there Kieran?
Quite a big Labour vote for that area though. (as far as I know)
To belatedly reply to Joe’s post; no, amazingly the above triumph was accomplished without my assistance.
I was wondering, is that result the largest percentage decline in the Lib Dem vote in any local by-election since the GE? Also at the last GE which constituency saw the biggest percentage decline in the Lib Dem vote?
It was Orpington at 15.9%
I think the biggest decline was in Swansea Newton where they were down 28.4% and this was also a Conservative gain. The biggest proportional decline would probably be in Rossendale, Healey & Whitworth where they declined by 9.7% from 11.2% to 1.5%
Labour have been presented with an extra seat on the district council here by the failure of anyone other than their candidate to contest Unstone Ward in the forthcoming elections. The seat was won by an Independent at the last round of all out elections in 2007, and was subsequently won by a Lib Dem in a by-election in 2008. In that by-election Labour finished third behind the Lib Dem victor and a Tory candidate. It is very disappointing and surprising that Labour have no opposition there this time.
Elsewhere the general picture in NE Derbys district is one of fewer Lib Dem candidates, more Conservative candidates and a few more Labour candidates compared with ’07.
Clay Cross N – both Labour candidates are opposed by Tories whereas Labour enjoyed a walkover last time.
Clay Cross S – two Labour candidates are opposed by a single Tory. Last time the opposition was a Lib Dem.
Brampton & Walton – no Lib Dem candidate and one less Labour candidate.
Ashover – contested by Lab, Tories unopposed last time.
Coal Aston and Dronfield S – one less Lib Dem candidate in each ward.
Eckington N – one more Lab and one more Tory candidate.
Eckington S – two Tories standing this time, none last time.
Gosforth Valley and Grassmoor – one more Tory candidate in each ward.
Holmewood & Heath – two seats contested by one Tory, Lab unopposed last time.
Killamarsh E and Killamarsh W – all seats contested by Conservatives, Labour unopposed last time.
North Wingfield C – Conservatives contesting all seats, Labour only opposed by a single independent last time.
Pilsley & Morton – two Tory candidates for three seats, none last time.
Shirland – all three seats contested by Conservatives as opposed to only one last time.
Tupton – no Tory candidate this time, two last time.
I think all this provides a pretty good indication of how the main parties are doing in this part of the world right now. Aside from Tupton and Unstone there are indications of growing Tory strength in the area. Labour also look strong though, and will probably be confident of retaining control of the council despite the greater opposition they face in many wards than has hitherto been the case.
The absence of a full slate of Lib Dem candidates in Dronfield S and Coal Aston (Dronfield and its surrounds is the Lib Dems strong area in this seat), coupled with their performance in the above mentioned by-election in Gosforth Valley indicates that they are on a downward trajectory round here at the moment. The main question about their performance in May will be how low they can go.
I don’t understand how the notional results on this site have the Labour majority in thus seat being reduced under the BCE’s initial proposals for this area. I just don’t see the territory this seat is set to take in under those plans causing any dent in the Labour majority.
The Labour notional in Bolsover is 49.3% (-0.7%), despite the addition of 4 Amber valley wards so the that area must have been the tories best area of Bolsover constituency.
That’s true in the sense that the area includes the Stonebroom & Pilsley county division won by the Tories in 2009. But that victory was pretty narrow, and the seat is also set to take in Sutton county division, won comfortably by Labour in the same round of elections.
Shirland ward (part of Stonebroom & Pilsley county division) saw a Tory elected to NE Derbyshire district this year, but the other two ward seats were won by Labour.
I am afraid I just don’t see where any net gain for the Tories from the BCE changes is supposed to come from. If anything I think there might be some Labour voters in the areas mentioned that don’t turn out at local elections, but would at a GE.
I ann afraid I just don’t see where this
The Guardian’s analysis puts the Labour majority in this seat under the revised boundaries at over 4,000. I reckon that’s closer to the true situation than any projection of a reduced Labour majority.
Quite a good Conservative result last time.
I wonder whether it was exploited enough.
It seems Labour always has that bit extra in hand, even when they’re under real pressure.
The LDs will do very badly here in 2015:
Lab 47.5 (+9.5)
Con 34 (+1)
LD 12.5 (-11)
UKIP 6
“This may sound far-fetched but how many people would have predicted only 10 years ago that the Republicans could win West Virginia (by 15% no less) whilst losing New Hampshire.”
It looks like Romney has won West Virginia by 26%.
There are certain states in which one can see Hillary Clinton doing a lot better than Obama. W Virginia I reckon is one of them, and, surely, Arkansas.
This seat is one of the first 10 where the Tories are selecting. My understanding from ConHome article is that the 2010 Tory candidate won’t try again (same thing in the other 9).
Rather incredibly Romney seems to have won every county in West Virginia
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-elections-2012/results/west-virginia
Pete will have noticed that Obama won Richmond county (Staten Island) in New York.
Nevertheless, its southernmost congressional district (where I used to live) was held by the Democrats yesterday. Democrats also hold both senators and the state governor.
The WV economy is based on coal mining and with its Appalachian wildlife it is one of the biggest gun/hunting states in the US.
A white, pro-coal, pro-gun and pro-union Democrat can still do very well indeed in WV.
Obama is the absolute opposite of the first three of those and is consequently absolutely hated in the state. I think it gives him as low an approval rating as Utah or Oklahoma.
Barnaby is right that Clinton would poll much better than Obama there….although may still not win.
I agree.
But looking at the UK ‘equivalents’ Labour’s leaders are more likely to be similar to Obama than the Clintons.
Which is why in the medium term such areas have potential for the Conservatives. Certainly a lot more than metropolitan suburban seats they last won in 1992.
One difference is that in the US it isn’t culturally an obstacle for WWC voters in states like WV that the Republicans are “the party of the rich”.
In the likes of Doncaster and Pontefract it most certainly is, and the Tories need to shake off that image to have any hope of making further progress in that kind of place.
I hold out hope that some of the London suburban seats will demographically come back to the Tories…I think Westminster North, Hampstead, Hammersmith, and Tooting will, and new opportunities will emerge in places like Southwark and Tower Hamlets. Also there is potential in Lib Dem suburbs like Kingston and Sutton.
But as regards the Sheffield Hallams and Croydon Norths, you’re surely right.
“In the likes of Doncaster and Pontefract it most certainly is, and the Tories need to shake off that image to have any hope of making further progress in that kind of place.”
I’ve said repeatedly that in such places Cameron (not to mention his chumocracy) has made the Conservative image more ‘toxic’.
Not just their posh background but also their metro-posh interests.
‘Vote Blue Go Green’ might have impressed urban liberals but its no slogan for mining areas.
Nor are the Cameroons tax cuts for millionaires.
That ‘detox’ became a strategy aimed at only certain demographics highlighted Cameron’s lack of vision and lack of interest in much of the country.
“I hold out hope that some of the London suburban seats will demographically come back to the Tories…I think Westminster North, Hampstead, Hammersmith, and Tooting will, and new opportunities will emerge in places like Southwark and Tower Hamlets. Also there is potential in Lib Dem suburbs like Kingston and Sutton.”
I agree with you in regards to Westminster North, Hampstead and Hammersmith but less convinced about Tooting. It may be getting more affluent over time but the Muslim population isn’t going away either. I think the Tories will find it a tough nut to crack until they can win those voters over.
I’m also assuming that you mean the parts of Southwark and Tower Hamlets closest to the centre will provide opportunities to the Tories? Even if that dies happens, it will surely be quite a long way off especially in Tower Hamlets for much the same reason as Tooting but even more so. On the whole, London is not looking good for the Tories in the long-term and the days when they had the most MPs in the city are surely long gone now.
I thought that 2010 was a ‘now or never’ moment for the Conservatives in Tooting.
I suspected it was ‘never’ and very profitable it was too.
A little late but as some of you may know, this seat is one of ten in the “early tranche” of Conservative Party selections, which began on the 16th November and is set to be concluded by Christmas.
As per ConservativeHome – “None of these first ten have fast-tracked candidates – that is candidates who fought the seat at the last election and have asked to fight it again. A number of candidates in the other thirty of the forty seats have asked to be fast-tracked and are going through the relevant ConHQ and local approval processes.
Constituencies with less than 100 members will have to choose a three person shortlist given to them by a special ConHQ committee or choose their candidate by open primary.”
This is one of the Associations with less than 100 members IIRC.
I also wondered about this line “will have to choose a three person shortlist given to them by a special ConHQ committee”
if it is given to them, it’s not much of a choice!
Has Dronfield always been in this seat, or has it been in Sheffield Hallam in the past?
Dronfield will never have been included in a Sheffied seat as it has always been on the Derbyshire side of the Derbyshire/Yorkshire county boundary.
Westminister councillor Lee Rowley has been selected as the Conservative candidate for 2015. His family comes from Derbyshire.
He stood in Bolsover in 2010.
Unfortunately for him he’s 5 years too early.
But its a better long term bet for the Conservatives than say Eltham or Tooting.
I wonder how many political careers got chocked off by being just one general election too early or too late.
Kieran W says in reply to my query upthread ‘Dronfield will never have been included in a Sheffied seat as it has always been on the Derbyshire side of the Derbyshire/Yorkshire county boundary’
In that case I presume it has always been in this seat