Derby North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14283 (31.68%)
Labour: 14896 (33.04%)
Liberal Democrat: 12638 (28.03%)
BNP: 2000 (4.44%)
UKIP: 829 (1.84%)
Independent: 264 (0.59%)
Others: 170 (0.38%)
Majority: 613 (1.36%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15845 (39.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 12293 (30.6%)
Conservative: 10395 (25.9%)
Other: 1583 (3.9%)
Majority: 3552 (8.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15515 (35.4%)
Labour: 19272 (44%)
Liberal Democrat: 7209 (16.5%)
UKIP: 864 (2%)
Other: 958 (2.2%)
Majority: 3757 (8.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15433 (35%)
Labour: 22415 (50.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6206 (14.1%)
Majority: 6982 (15.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19229 (34.3%)
Labour: 29844 (53.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5059 (9%)
Referendum: 1816 (3.2%)
Other: 195 (0.3%)
Majority: 10615 (18.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Williamson (Labour) Derby councillor.
Stephen Mold (Conservative) born 1968, Banbury. Sales and marketing director for a software companyChris Williamson (Labour) Derby councillor.Lucy Care (Liberal Democrat) born Derby. Educated at the University of Durham. Chartered engineer. Former Derbyshire County Councillor, Derby Councillor since 1996. Contested Derby South in 2005.Elizabeth Ransome (UKIP) Pete Cheeseman (BNP)David Geraghty (Pirate) 
David Gale (Independent) Born Derby. Educated at Britannia Royal Naval College. IT consultant. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90157
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 6.3%
White: 93.1%
Black: 1.1%
Asian: 3.6%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 70.1%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Sikh: 1.8%
Full time students: 8.4%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.6%
Social Housing: 20.5% (Council: 15%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.3%
Living in Derby North I can see a definite support for the Lib Dems that I haven’t seen so strongly before.
I predict a Lib Dem victory with Conservatives trailing a long way behind Labour too.
This constituency is quite liberal and very anti-tory from what I see each day out and about.
Also, the Labour representative seems to have done little to promote himself. I attend a school that is having its own mock election through which both Mold and Care have done lots to promote their parties to the local community. I have yet to see Williamson take any notice or interest in talking to the public.
They are all coming in to the school on Tuesday for Q and A – will be interesting to see how the teachers react, though I still expect much Lib Dem support.
LD GAIN
hehe no I was wrong. A Labour hold it was, despite a new candidate. Clearly the anti-Lab vote split.
Barnaby
Did you bet any money on these predictions you made
The Conservatives actually did quite well in the East Midlands cities.
Fortunately I didn’t. I originally forecast a Labour hold here when everyone else said Consevative gain, but was seduced by the Clegg-bounce-that-never-really-was to change my mind.
HH predicted this result pretty accurately when I asked him his opinion about 18 months or 2 years ago.
He didn’t put figures on it, but a general description.
Although he did have it the other way round,
he said the Tories would just take it off Labour.
In the event, Labour just held on,
but the LDs were a little way behind in third.
Doesn’t look like Williamson expected to win that confidently. I see he was re-elected to the Council as well.
This must be the only seat where your predicted winners came 3rd surely!
This would be a fascinating seat to watch if AV is introduced. Would the LD vote split as people expect it to? (assuming they come third again).
“Fortunately I didn’t. I originally forecast a Labour hold here when everyone else said Consevative gain”
I didn’t Barnaby
Having said that, I was shocked to see the Tories almost win here this time. Thought it would take at least another go to get that close.
If of course the boundaries had remained unchanged, Derby North would have a Tory MP right now in place of Mid Derbyshire.
Derby North featured a lot on the Decision 79 program in 1979, as a key seat, but one where Labour just held on.
Interesting that the Lab v Con margin turned out to be very similar in 2010,
but as it was complicated by the LDs starting second, unlike 1979, it didn’t attract the media attention as a key seat to watch.
This was a pretty good result for the Tories given that most of their strong areas in the previous Derby North seat were moved into the new Mid Derbyshire constituency.
What were the 1983-97 wards of this constituency?
Abbey, Allestree, Breadsall, Chaddesden, Darley, Derwent, Mackworth and Spondon.
Harry, I strongly recommend you take the advice I give you on the Nottingham North thread.
Thank you votedave – was Breadsall ward a Derby City ward at the time, or was it an Erewash Borough ward and all the rest were part of Derby City?
Breadsall was a Derby City ward.
“Derby North featured a lot on the Decision 79 program in 1979, as a key seat, but one where Labour just held on.”
Philip Whitehead held on by a wafer thin majority in 1979 thanks to a little help from Brian Clough.
Did the old Breadsall ward in this seat include the village of Breadsall? I thought it was in Amber Valley from 1983 to 2010 (I discussed this in some depth on the Mid Derbyshire thread I believe).
No Derby North was entirely contained in the city of Derby. At that time there was a Breadsall ward in Derby which covered the area now covered by Oakwood ward and the northern bit of Derwent ward. The village of Breadsall itself was always in Erewash district and (from 1983 to2010) int he Amber Valley constituency.
Interesting that 7% here still voted BNP/UKIP/Ind even though it was a tight 3way marginal.
Now that the boundaries are going to be changed again – does anyone have any idea what a new Derby North seat would probably look like?
Another council where there are likely to be Labour gains, but not enough to come close to giving the party overall control. Labour should this year take Chaddesden & Chellaston wards from the Tories, and Abbey from the Lib Dems. There is also a strong but less easy chance to take Blagreaves from the Lib Dems. That would make Labour clearly the largest party but still well short of a majority, with 21 of the 51 seats.
Again, yes. Who is running derby at the moment though? It has had recent periods of minority Lib Dem rule, Lib-Dem/Tory coalition and Labour/Tory coalition. Its minority Tory at the moment isn’t it?
If the Lib Dems really do badly in Labour heartlands then there could be quite big swings in some Deby wards.
local election results here for Derby North
Lab 42.4 Con 29.07 LD 20.97 BNP 4.75
and rough figures for the likely redrawn Derby North which Pete Whitehead has suggested.
Lab 13329 44.5%
Con 11674 39.0%
LD 2963 9.9%
BNP 1370 4.6%
Grn 603 2.0%
I see the Boundary Commission has gone for splitting Derby on east/west lines rather than north/south, using the main railway line as most of the boundary. Two wards from Derby South move into the successor seat to South Derbyshire.
Derby East should be a fairly safe Labour seat, albeit with a sizeable Tory vote mainly in Oakwood and Spondon wards. Of the two seats Derby West is by far the most interesting. It should be a genuine three way marginal. I make it that the Tories were just ahead on the local election votes cast on the same day as the last GE, with Labour in third.
Conservative 16,448 34.2%
Lib Dem 16,308 33.9%
Labour 13,840 28.8%
Labour did though perform much better in the area this year and the Lib Dems much worse, with the vote shares being roughly Labour 39%, Conservative 32%, Lib Dem 24%.
Looking at Derbyshire as a whole I can’t see the changes proposed being at all controversial. The commission has understandably chosen not to copy the Lewis Baston proposals which involved crossing the boundary with Nottinghamshire, which might have upset some people.
As to the partisan impact of the proposals it could be argued that they are slightly pro Tory, if it is assumed that the Tories would indeed have just got home in Derby East. In that event Labour would have won one less Derbyshire seat than they in fact did. Other than Derby West the Tories would in all likelihood have still won Mid Derbys, Erewash and Derbyshire Dales, while the changes would have helped them in High Peak (only slightly) and the successor seat to South Derbyshire (quite a lot).
My only real beef with the proposals is in the naming of Derby South and Swadlincote. I see no reason why the new seat cannot be given the far less cumbersome name of South Derbyshire.
Agreed, Derbyshire is probably one of the most sensibly drawn counties in the BCE’s proposals.
I would have thought the only controversy is likely to be with how Derby is drawn with the tories more likely to prefer a North/South split?
Yes, from a Tory point of view the ideal Derby constituency would be a Derby N uniting Allestree, Oakwood and Spondon. I don’t think that’s doable without splitting wards to prevent Derby S being undersized. I quite understand why the commission have decided against doing that. As a Tory myself I am happy that Derby West will be eminantly winnable, if less so than a Derby N on the aforementioned boundaries.
Chris Williamson is not happy with the proposals, being quoted in the Derby Telegraph this week as saying that “for me, this is a cynical political stitch-up in the interests of the Tory party”.
UKPR notionals for the proposed Derby West seat:
Con: 15,660
LD: 15,323
Lab: 14,345
‘Yes, from a Tory point of view the ideal Derby constituency would be a Derby N uniting Allestree, Oakwood and Spondon. I don’t think that’s doable without splitting wards to prevent Derby S being undersized’
The tories have come up with an alternative plan here.
Derby North: Allestree, Darley, Derwent, Littleover, Mackworth, Mickleover, Oakwood 73,941
Derby South: Abbey, Alvaston, Arboretum, Blagreaves, Chaddesden, Normanton, Sinfin, Spondon 80,322
This proposed Derby North would be very competitive in 2015 as the tories were 188 ahead of Labour at the May local elections
All of the three main parties have submitted counter proposals for redrawing the Derby constituencies. In terms of minimizing the crossing of the Derby City boundary the Tory plans are the most sensible. They envisage the two Derby constituencies including all Derby City wards other than Boulton and Chaddesden, as is the case with the Boundary Commission’s initial proposals.
Under Labour’s proposals the Derby constituencies would exclude Allestree, Mickleover and Littelover, but bring in Aston and Ockbrook & Borrowash wards from outside the city. The Lib Dem plan meanwhile would exclude Oakwood, Derwent and Chaddesden and also bring in Aston.
To me there is absolutely no need for either of the two Derby constituencies to include wards from outside the city, or for excluding more then two Derby City wards from the Derby seats. I would imagine the commission will feel the same way. I would therefore be very surprised if the final plan is not either the commission’s initial proposal or that submitted by the local Tories. Certainly the latter seems to be the best way of continuing to divide Derby north/south as opposed to east/west.
Ultimately much might depend on how bothered local people who take an interest are by the switch from a north/south to an east/west split. The former has the advantage of familiarity and minimizing change, but the geography of the city does perhaps lend itself more to a divide using the railway line running north to south.
Presumably, all will depend on what knock-on effects the proposed changes would have accross the rest of the county, since they all have to stack up.
On the new boundary commission rules, you can’t just make changes to one part of the area without going back and looking at how it affects the rest of the area as a whole.
I wonder whether for that reason, we’ll see the commissions final proposals at this review looking more like their initial proposals than ever before?
Good speculation Shaun. This is certainly what I am expecting. Any objections or changes proposed have to consider knock-on effects if they are to be listened to, and the +/- 5% rule makes this more difficult, as well as the wider region that has to be considered now that county boundaries are being crossed. I’m sure Pete Whitehead can confirm this. I am certainly struggling in some areas to improve what on the surface are daft proposals.
However the political parties have large staffs, computers, and both time and incentive. Their problem is not to be too partisan (as described by Kieran), and even so they are a suspect source.
Were the Commission to ditch their own proposals and adopt the Tory ones there would be no knock on implications for seats outside Derby, just a straight swap of two wards. Derby West would swap Abbey and Arboretum for Oakwood and Derwent to become Derby North.
That does sound more sensible than the initial proposals and infinitley more so than the counter proposals of the other parties.
Yes, that sounds like one of those examples that the commission might adopt then so long as it looks sensible and holds some local support.
There must be a chance that Margaret Beckett will retire and her safe seat be taken by Chris Williamson who might otherwise have problems holding a reconfigured Derby North constituency.
Here are the main parties proposals for Derby:
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/29/everything-derby/
I can’t believe that Labour and the Lib Dems are serious about their plans. Labour want a Derby West & Belper seat including the Derby wards mentioned in my above post and a chunk of rural territory linking them with Belper. The Lib Dems want to preserve Mid Derbyshire and have it taking in territory not far from the centre of Derby. Both seem to be bending over backwards to have Derby City wards that they consider too Tory included in seats not centred on Derby.
I think Labour’s plans are wacky so I was deliberately ignoring them.
They’ve been a bit silly really as the East Midlands plans weren’t really that bad for them on the whole and they should have argued for tweaks here and there.
“I think Labour’s plans are wacky…”
The Lib Dem plan is also pretty ridiculous.
In the local Elections Labour should win in Alvaston, Boulton, Chaddesden and Mackworth wards. Should be interesting to watch.
Mickleover has been in this constituency since 2010, from 1997 it was in Derby South and from 1983 it was in Derbyshire South. I don’t know which seats it was in before then
I do now – it was in Belper!