Derby North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14283 (31.68%)
Labour: 14896 (33.04%)
Liberal Democrat: 12638 (28.03%)
BNP: 2000 (4.44%)
UKIP: 829 (1.84%)
Independent: 264 (0.59%)
Others: 170 (0.38%)
Majority: 613 (1.36%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15845 (39.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 12293 (30.6%)
Conservative: 10395 (25.9%)
Other: 1583 (3.9%)
Majority: 3552 (8.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15515 (35.4%)
Labour: 19272 (44%)
Liberal Democrat: 7209 (16.5%)
UKIP: 864 (2%)
Other: 958 (2.2%)
Majority: 3757 (8.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15433 (35%)
Labour: 22415 (50.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6206 (14.1%)
Majority: 6982 (15.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19229 (34.3%)
Labour: 29844 (53.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5059 (9%)
Referendum: 1816 (3.2%)
Other: 195 (0.3%)
Majority: 10615 (18.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Williamson (Labour) Derby councillor.
Stephen Mold (Conservative) born 1968, Banbury. Sales and marketing director for a software companyChris Williamson (Labour) Derby councillor.Lucy Care (Liberal Democrat) born Derby. Educated at the University of Durham. Chartered engineer. Former Derbyshire County Councillor, Derby Councillor since 1996. Contested Derby South in 2005.Elizabeth Ransome (UKIP) Pete Cheeseman (BNP)David Geraghty (Pirate) 
David Gale (Independent) Born Derby. Educated at Britannia Royal Naval College. IT consultant. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90157
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 6.3%
White: 93.1%
Black: 1.1%
Asian: 3.6%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 70.1%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Sikh: 1.8%
Full time students: 8.4%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.6%
Social Housing: 20.5% (Council: 15%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.3%
Living in Derby North I can see a definite support for the Lib Dems that I haven’t seen so strongly before.
I predict a Lib Dem victory with Conservatives trailing a long way behind Labour too.
This constituency is quite liberal and very anti-tory from what I see each day out and about.
Also, the Labour representative seems to have done little to promote himself. I attend a school that is having its own mock election through which both Mold and Care have done lots to promote their parties to the local community. I have yet to see Williamson take any notice or interest in talking to the public.
They are all coming in to the school on Tuesday for Q and A – will be interesting to see how the teachers react, though I still expect much Lib Dem support.
LD GAIN
hehe no I was wrong. A Labour hold it was, despite a new candidate. Clearly the anti-Lab vote split.
Barnaby
Did you bet any money on these predictions you made
The Conservatives actually did quite well in the East Midlands cities.
Fortunately I didn’t. I originally forecast a Labour hold here when everyone else said Consevative gain, but was seduced by the Clegg-bounce-that-never-really-was to change my mind.
HH predicted this result pretty accurately when I asked him his opinion about 18 months or 2 years ago.
He didn’t put figures on it, but a general description.
Although he did have it the other way round,
he said the Tories would just take it off Labour.
In the event, Labour just held on,
but the LDs were a little way behind in third.
Doesn’t look like Williamson expected to win that confidently. I see he was re-elected to the Council as well.
This must be the only seat where your predicted winners came 3rd surely!
This would be a fascinating seat to watch if AV is introduced. Would the LD vote split as people expect it to? (assuming they come third again).
“Fortunately I didn’t. I originally forecast a Labour hold here when everyone else said Consevative gain”
I didn’t Barnaby
Having said that, I was shocked to see the Tories almost win here this time. Thought it would take at least another go to get that close.
If of course the boundaries had remained unchanged, Derby North would have a Tory MP right now in place of Mid Derbyshire.
Derby North featured a lot on the Decision 79 program in 1979, as a key seat, but one where Labour just held on.
Interesting that the Lab v Con margin turned out to be very similar in 2010,
but as it was complicated by the LDs starting second, unlike 1979, it didn’t attract the media attention as a key seat to watch.
This was a pretty good result for the Tories given that most of their strong areas in the previous Derby North seat were moved into the new Mid Derbyshire constituency.