Denton and Reddish
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9360 (24.87%)
Labour: 19191 (50.99%)
Liberal Democrat: 6727 (17.87%)
UKIP: 2060 (5.47%)
Independent: 297 (0.79%)
Majority: 9831 (26.12%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19717 (58.1%)
Conservative: 6392 (18.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5566 (16.4%)
Other: 2289 (6.7%)
Majority: 13325 (39.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6842 (19.3%)
Labour: 20340 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5814 (16.4%)
BNP: 1326 (3.7%)
UKIP: 1120 (3.2%)
Majority: 13498 (38.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6583 (19.6%)
Labour: 21913 (65.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4152 (12.4%)
UKIP: 945 (2.8%)
Majority: 15330 (45.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9826 (21.3%)
Labour: 30137 (65.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (13.3%)
Majority: 20311 (44.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Andrew Gwynne(Labour) born 1974, Manchester. Educated at Egerton Park Community High School and Salford University. Tameside councillor 1996-2008. First elected as MP for Denton and Reddish 2005. PPS to Jacqui Smith since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Julie Searle (Conservative) Adur councillor.Andrew Gwynne(Labour) born 1974, Manchester. Educated at Egerton Park Community High School and Salford University. Tameside councillor 1996-2008. First elected as MP for Denton and Reddish 2005. PPS to Jacqui Smith since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Stephen Broadhurst (Liberal Democrat)William Robinson (UKIP) Jeff Dennis (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85692
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 24%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 97%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 78.5%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 10.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.8%
Owner-Occupied: 73%
Social Housing: 18.2% (Council: 10.2%, Housing Ass.: 8%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.1%
Someone seems to have vandalized the wikipedia entry for Andrew Gwynne, claiming he was born in 1989.
It’s been corrected now.
Is this seat not where ‘A Touch of Frost’ is set?
It’s certainly set in “Denton” but filmed, at least partially, in Leeds North East – down the road from where I live
yes it isn’t the same Denton.
Occurs to me that Reddish is one of the most appropriately named towns in England.
Grays in Essex comes close.
Set to be abolished in the recent boundary reviews, Denton and Reddish was “saved”, although it is rather undersized.
Andrew Gwynne is the son of John Gwynne who’s a Sky Sports reporter.
This constituency survived the recent boundary review. Originally it was to be a wholly Tameside seat, losing the two Reddish wards to Stockport constituency, but gaining the two Droylsden wards and the St Peter’s ward from Ashton-under-Lyne.
The remainder of the constituency (three Denton wards, Audenshaw ward and Dukinfield ward) would have remained the same.
However, the Boundary Commission decided after a lengthy public inquiry, to merely tidy-up the constituency boundaries to match the new ward boundaries created in 2004.
Therefore Denton and Reddish will remain a cross borough constituency with seven wards (Audenshaw, Denton North East, Denton South, Denton West and Dukinfield in Tameside MBC and Reddish North and Reddish South in Stockport MBC.
The seat loses some small areas in Audenshaw and Dukinfield, which were transferred in 2004 into St. Peter’s and Dukinfield/Stalybridge wards and likewise small parts of Heaton Chapel and Heaton Norris and the whole of the Lancashire Hill estate will be transferred to Stockport constituency, as they were moved into neighbouring wards at the same review.
Only a small part of Heaton Chapel which had been in the former Heaton Moor ward, and was transferred to the new Reddish South ward, will be voting in Denton and Reddish for the first time.
Given that 21 of the 22 councillors in the area are Labour (with one Lib Dem) the Denton and Reddish constituency, on the new boundaries, is likely to remain very much a Labour Party stronghold.
Aggregate votes from the 2008 local elections;
Lab 9419 48.1%
C 6737 34.3%
LD 1270 6.5%
Oth 2232 11.4%
Labour’s vote appears to have held up quite well, but the LibDems did not contest all the wards. The Conservatives put up a very praiseworthy performance but were unable to carry any of the wards, missing out in Denton West by just 13 votes.
Take your point votedave, but the likelihood in a seat like Denton and Reddish is that the Lib Dems would merely have split the anti-Labour vote even more with the result being the Tories falling further behind Labour.
A good illustrative example is Denton North East: in 2006 this was a two horse race between Labour and Conservative, and resulted in a Labour majority of 352; in 2007 in the same ward, the Lib Dems stood and although Labour polled almost an identical vote tot he year before, it doubled the majority to 676. This year, in that ward, it is likely Labour would have lost had the Lib Dems not fielded a candidate as it was the one ward (of the three Denton seats) where Labour failed to achieve over 50% of the vote.
Also given that both Denton West and Audenshaw traditionally returned Conservative councillors the real question is why they didn’t do better and take both those wards… Denton West had a new and unknown Labour candidate (as Andrew Gwynne the previous councillor retired to focus on being the MP!) whereas the Tory was local and had stood several times before; Also the Tories threw a lot of resources at Audenshaw to no avail.
This was probably the best year for Tories in those seats for a long time, added to that both communities are adversley affected by the proposed Manchester Congestion Charge proposals, but despite the Tories making much of the issue in the campaign, seem not to have picked up anything like enough votes off the back of it all.
My prediction for this seat;
Labour 19500
Cons 9000
Lib Dem 5000
BNP 2000
Others 1500
The Lib vote will remain fairly static. This area will undoubtedly remain a safe Lab seat, although I expect a few thousand disillusioned floaters (formerly Con supporters) from the Denton area to switch support Lab to Con. Tactical voting seems non-apparent in this area…
What’s going on here with the Lib Dem PPC, Paul Moss defecting?
I didn’t even know the Lib Dems had a PPC here!! Who did he defect to?
LABOUR!
http://labourfordentonnortheast.blogspot.com/2009/06/labours-newest-recruit-leading-lib-dem.html
Names of Candidate and Party Number Of Votes Recorded
Bennett P. (BNP) 195
Beverley N. (Lib Dem) 303
Butler G.J. (Con) 403
Price G. (UKIP) 342
Wilson D.S. (Lab) 1,218
Majority 815
% Poll 23.5%
Result Lab Hold
Reddish North By-Election 2009
LAB: 1218
CON: 403
UKIP: 342
LD: 303
BNP: 195
UKIP really ate into the Con vote. Turnout was half of what it should have been but Labour have the magical ability to get a 12-1300 strong army of voters out in force at every local election. So a poor showing for the other parties apart from Labour, probably due to the rather unusual high influx of leaflets probably repelling voters. UKIP were riding high after the Euros and will thankfully fizzle away again in time for the general and locals next May/June. Probably not a Con target next time but Labour are sitting on a fairly unsafe majority of around 400 in Reddish South, combined with the general election fever will hopefully be taken by the Tories next time around.
Another strong swing to Labour in the Denton Byelection.
DENTON NORTH EAST WARD
LABOUR HOLD
LABOUR1258
CONSERVATIVE 660
BNP 358
UKIP193
GREEN164
TURNOUT 31.5%
Falikrkbairn
You do realise that suggests that Labour are piling up votes in ultra safe seats ie where they dont need them?
Yes I know, but I now think the next election is already finished and for us it is damage limitation to be perfectly frank. However, this was a much more marginal seat that Reddish, with only 200 or so votes in it between Labour and the Conservatives, for the next election I will be happy to have swings to us in our safe seats as if that is the case then our traditional vote will hold up quite well.
We need to know the figures for previous elections to interpret the local by-election results recently posted for this seat. Without looking them up, it seems likely to me that the apparent swings to Labour may well be due to the oppostion vote fragmenting from the Conservatives to a variety of minor parties.
All the same, this appears to be one of the minority of Labour seats that party can be confident of holding. The main psephological interest is in who will come second. In current circumstance the Tories would appear favourites to remain runners-up above the Libdems. As in many seats, the minor parties collectively are likely to increase their share of the poll..
I haven’t got the figures to hand but I seem to remember 2008 was a very good Conservative performance in Tameside/Reddish, with 2007 a bit less so – the holding of 2 Labour wards in a seat where Labour were 40% ahead, is not really a cause for celebration IMHO!
The percentage changes in both by-elections are below. They were very good results for Labour as the formidable Stockport Lib Dem machine threw everything at Reddish North (to no avail at all) and the Tories, in the present climate, really ought to have taken Denton North East. To have a 5% and 7% TO Labour swing respectively is very good news.
The key points about local elections is that after the three sets of elections in the cycle (2006,07,08) the Labour Party won every seat in this constituency, completely wiping out the three Lib Dem councillors in Audenshaw (there is now a Lib Dem in Reddish North via defection, but the by-election result for them makes her toast!)
2008 was the Tories’ high water mark as far as the local elections were concerned here – and though they came close in Denton West, they didn’t take a seat which traditionally had all three councillors from that party – and a seat which Labour should not be holding while 20% behind in the national polls.
Also, the by-elections show that there has been a move back to Labour since the 2008 local elections in both Denton and Reddish.
With the Labour Party able to muster around 50% of the vote and the opposition being split 4 ways, this seat will be able to withhold any substantial swing to the Conservatives at the next General Election.
Tameside MBC, Denton North East
date: 30/07/2009
Lab 1,258 (47.8; +2.3)
Con 660 (25.1; -11.3)
BNP 358 (13.6; +13.6)
UKIP 193 (7.3; +7.3)
Green 164 (6.2; +6.2)
[LD (0.0; -18.2)]
Majority 598
Turnout 31.5%
(Percentage change is since May 2008)
Stockport MBC, Reddish North
date: 23/07/2009
Lab 1,218 (49.5; +1.0)
Con 403 (16.4; -8.9)
UKIP 342 (13.9; +13.9)
LD 303 (12.3; +0.7)
BNP 195 (7.9; -6.6)
Majority 815
Turnout 23.5%
(Percentage change since May 2008)
Julie Searle has been selected as the Conservative candidate here.
She is an Adur district councillor.
Labour 21000
Conservative 7000
LD 4500
UKIP 1300
BNP 1000
I think the BNP vote is too low, not sure whether Labour are going to do better than in 2005
Lab Hold= 10,000 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 10 800
Lab maj 8,000
LAB HOLD
What were the wards of this seat from 1983 to 1997?
Tameside: Audenshaw; Denton NE; Denton S; Denton W
Stockport: Brinnington; Reddish N; Reddish S