Delyn
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12811 (34.64%)
Labour: 15083 (40.78%)
Liberal Democrat: 5747 (15.54%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (4.99%)
BNP: 844 (2.28%)
UKIP: 655 (1.77%)
Majority: 2272 (6.14%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15540 (45.7%)
Conservative: 8896 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6089 (17.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 2524 (7.4%)
Other: 955 (2.8%)
Majority: 6644 (19.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9220 (26.6%)
Labour: 17825 (51.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5329 (15.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2262 (6.5%)
Majority: 8605 (24.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10607 (26.7%)
Labour: 22300 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4160 (10.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1558 (3.9%)
Referendum: 1117 (2.8%)
Majority: 11693 (29.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: David Hanson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Antoinette Sandbach (Conservative) Educated at Nottingham University. Barrister , now working for David Jones MP. Contested Delyn in the Welsh Assembly elections 2007.David Hanson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Bill Brereton (Liberal Democrat)Peter Ryder (Plaid Cymru) Andrew Haigh (UKIP) Jennifer Matthys (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69627
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.2%
Owner-Occupied: 75.2%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 13.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.2%
Lab maj 1,500
Not so fast Petw
Tory majoirty 2000!
Tory maj 200 ?
Tory maj 14
Labour will win this seat again with a cut margain. I will be shocked if it swings so much that the Cons or Democrats get in. Plaid have no hope. I don’t even consider BNP as political party so they have no chance and UKIP should stick to the European Elections, they have nothing more to offer.
Labour to lose just.
For a so called marginal seat – I haven’t seen much evidence of any activity from any of the parties apart from a smattering of posters nailed to trees.
If the Tories don’t up their game they could be struggling to hold second place!
Well that clearly isn’t true – of course the Tories won’t be 3rd – but there are several key seats where the Tory campaign looks a bit lacklustre from the outside. This has previously been flagged up as such a seat & I still doubt that the Tories will gain it.
Lab majority. I was in Delyn today and attitude towards Mr Hanson was second to none. So many people wanted Labour posters for their windows
Thinking after recent shifts that this will now fall with a small Conservative majority on the cards.
Barnaby is correct. This campaign needs a bit of ‘Prezza’ Prescott! I still believe that the tories will win here. Wales in particular is not looking too promising for Labour.
North Wales is not liking Labour for sure…maybe the fear of the tories brings out the laboirites and saves delyn…this election is so complex
LAB HOLD
Barnaby even if people across labour seats in North Wales vote Labour and keep them in………..they really are not well liked with that brown chap in charge
Brown did a good speech today though…..but now I am getting political lol
Maybe so Hywel, but as I’ve said before there’s no polling evidence to suggest the Tories can make the sort of swing required to win here. Nearly 10% is a very tall order and yesterday’s Wales poll says it’s a lot less than that.
Labour with a vastly reduced majority of about 1,500 – 2,000 or so would be my best guess here.
No way this will swing to the Tories. Labour hold for sure, no one has a bad word to say about Mr Hanson. Will lose some of his majority though.
Cameron’s visit will have given the Tories a slight boost but nowhere near enough to overturn the Labour majority.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Hold
How do you see the NW regional list turning out?
If the Conservatives win one constituency will they simply lose one regional seat?
How do you see the NW regional list turning out?
‘If the Conservatives win one constituency will they simply lose one regional seat?’
With the tory vote holding a bit better than Plaid’s I imagine it could be one const. and 3 list seats.
If that is the case the result on Ynys Mon may be a big surprise.
In what way? You think the Tories could win Ynys Mon? Or Labour?
I would have quite liked to see Labour gain Ynys Mon and defeat Ieun Wyn Jones.
But now that we’ve heard the Labour candidates disgusting comments about wishing for Lady Thatcher to die, I hope that he loses empatically. He is clearly not capable of holding a high profile role such as this until he has grown up a little.
Interesting though that wishing for the death of an individual is acceptable (no one has as yet called for him to be expelled from Labour) but making comments about the local voters (as in the Thanet case) is not acceptable and that candidate was immediately removed by the Tory party.
And meanwhile, Labour MPs are far too worked up about Cameron’s ‘calm down’ comment yesterday. Have Labour lost the plot? Why are they so cross given that they are ‘supposed’ to be winning?
Sounds like private polling is not showing as huge a lead as they might have hoped and they’re a bit rattled?
Far from wanting her to die, Labour people should be hoping Lady Thatcher lives forever. While she’s still alive their tried and tested vintage Thatcher-hatred can still bring out the core vote at important elections, especially in the industrial North and Scotland. When she’s dead and buried, so will be the effectiveness of this strategy.
We should all leave Maggie alone in her final days. In some ways the Tories that keep wheeling her out to prove some point or another are as bad.
Various myths keep being repeated about that period.
Nicola Horlick, on Newsnight yesterday, said manufacturing declined too much during the Thatcher period,
yet as a share of GDP it fell from 25% in 1979 to 22% in 1990.
It fell from 20% to under 13% in 1997-2010.
The Poll Tax was not tested in Scotland. However flawed a tax it was, it was not introduced early for that reason, but too avoid a revaluation that was well overdue which would have been far worse for many people (bills X7) and George Younger was under fierce attack to come up with a new system quickly after a safe seat was lost in Ayr in the 1985 regional elections.
Yes that’s right.
I do think it’s wrong though to completely blame Labour for the decline of manufacturing since 1997 though.
Their over-regulation and neglect made things worse, but the emergence of mass super-cheap Chinese competition across a swathe of industries has been the main reason. The Tories could no more have stopped this than Labour. The decline and sometimes disappearance of our iron/steel, textile, shoe and consumer goods industries are all basically down to cheap imports from China. It is the same story in the US and across much of Europe.
This country should have been more like Germany if it wanted large-scale manufavturing to survive – ie. a complete focus on innovation and quality meaning that expensive products can beat cheap competiton on quality in home and export markets. It is probably too late now.
‘Far from wanting her to die, Labour people should be hoping Lady Thatcher lives forever. While she’s still alive their tried and tested vintage Thatcher-hatred can still bring out the core vote at important elections, especially in the industrial North and Scotland. When she’s dead and buried, so will be the effectiveness of this strategy.’
Alex Salmond ‘didn’t mind’ thatcher’s economic policies, it was just the social side Scotland didn’t like, according to him.
Then Salmond is telling a big lie.
I remember hearing the infamous Lawson 1988 budget live on the radio (before there were cameras in parliament).
Salmond made such a noisy protest against Lawson’s tax cuts that he was expelled from the house.
He’s successfully trying to squeeze the Scottish Tory vote right down to the bare bones. I must admit I would be tempted to vote SNP if I lived in Scotland as the Tories have become such an irrelevance there in what is essentially a contest between two potential first ministers.
No it was just something he came out in 2008, I remember it.
Source: http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Alex-Salmond-Scotland-39didn39t-mind39.4411586.jp
To be fair I can actually respect the greens and tories campaigns in this election as their manifestoes are ideologically coherent but Salmond is somehow able to appeal to the ex Labour vote in the central belt and the anti Labour rural vote at the same time.
This is somehow made easier for the SNP by Labour losing the media campaign.
Good technical education and apprenticeships are needed, and are being addressed now.
Education was dummed down disastrously.