Delyn
2005 Results:
Labour: 15540 (45.7%)
Conservative: 8896 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6089 (17.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 2524 (7.4%)
Other: 955 (2.8%)
Majority: 6644 (19.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9220 (26.6%)
Labour: 17825 (51.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5329 (15.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2262 (6.5%)
Majority: 8605 (24.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10607 (26.7%)
Labour: 22300 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4160 (10.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1558 (3.9%)
Referendum: 1117 (2.8%)
Majority: 11693 (29.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: David Hanson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Antoinette Sandbach (Conservative) Educated at Nottingham University. Barrister , now working for David Jones MP. Contested Delyn in the Welsh Assembly elections 2007.David Hanson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Bill Brereton (Liberal Democrat)Peter Ryder (Plaid Cymru) Derek Bigg (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69627
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.2%
Owner-Occupied: 75.2%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 13.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.2%
Well perhaps we need to determine what makes a nation. If as some here seem to suggest it is if a group of people consider themselves a nation, then perhaps we should also be thinking of the Cornish as a nation? And personally, I don’t.
I’m afraid I also don’t follow Dewi’s point questioning whether England is a nation. Of course it is. Historically, it is the conquering nation. It is the nation that took the Welsh land and demolished the Welsh independence, culture and language so that the Welsh nation ceased to exist. Of course Scotland is a nation because historically, the union was created by the coming together of seperate English and Scottish nations. Similarly Ireland is a nation (although Northern Ireland is not). Scotland and England maintained seperate laws, seperate legal system, seperate identities throughout the union. By contrast, Wales BECAME England. English law is Welsh law, the English language was (and still is) the Welsh language, English culture was Welsh culture.
I do not deny that since the end of the 19th Century, there have been attempts by nationalists to revive the Welsh identity, culture and language to rebuild the seperate Welsh nation. I’m afraid they’re not there yet.
And still I have heard no great case against what I have said except for a little huffing and puffing from some that its not true.
“Historically, it is the conquering nation. It is the nation that took the Welsh land and demolished the Welsh independence, culture and language so that the Welsh nation ceased to exist.”
Interesting – it certainly tried to demolish the language and culture but failed thank the Lord. By your logic however didn’t England disappear with the Norman Conquest? (Why such a dismal resistance btw?)
Shouldn’t it be called West Normandy?
Oh dear, what does all this have to do with psephology?
If you delve back into history you could point out that Henry V was born in Monmouth, and the Tudor dynasty under Henry VII cam from Wales. On the other hand, it is quite right that the English invaded Wales in the Middle Ages, and later they persecuted the Welsh langauage.
As an Englishman who has lived in Wales, surely the key point is that the Principality generally has a distinctive culture. This is largely based on the Welsh language, but there is an important, often overlooked, English speaking culture specific to Wales as well.
Whilst we are in the EU, wouldn’t it be a good idea to give Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland independence? That way the current UK area would get four commissioners, and presumably the smaller nations would get representation in the Suropean Parliament similar to Luxembourg, the Baltic States etc. And yes, why not Cornwall and Kent too.
More seriously, I am in favour of federalising the UK to devolve everywhere powers comparable to those already devolved in Scotland. Then there could be a much smaller Westminster parliament dealing with remaining matters such as defence and foreign affairs (rather like in Switzerland). That way, the Commons could be much smaller, and would meet sufficiently infrequently that MPs could be expected to stay away from home in hotels. The radical change could generally clear things up. And actually I think that the large number of MPs who are mainly interested in social issues, almost acting as social workers with their surgeries, would find it much more fulfilling to operate at regional level. The major problem is that the Regions in England are not clear – the current ones have very unsatisfactory and unequal boundaries.
But nobody is putting up such ideas in England. In Wales the nearest is Plaid, but they are hardly a force in this constituency.
In other words, debate about nationalism is not very relevant to how people are going to vote here in a month or two’s time. I imagine that the good people of Delyn are going to be influenced more by general issues like the economic crisis.
Has anyone just listened to the Labour Party political broadcast? It was so weak and wishy washy.
Labour know how unpopular they now are. Peter Hain appealed to PC and Lib Dem plus minor party supporters to vote Labour in order to keep the Tories out. I have never known Peter Hain to be so defeatist before.
Labour may find themselves in third place here.
I think Labour will be wiped out in this North East corner of Wales. This seat and several of its neighbours will see the Labour vote stay at home in vast numbers on polling day. I believe.
Labour in third place! have a day off
The issue of % turnout is a serious one for both Labour and Conservative. The general feeling is that a low turnout will destroy Labour. There is the possibility that many disgruntled Labour voters will not bother to turn up on polling day. Labour’s problem is that Mr Brown still lacks charisma, but recently has shown himself to be a political beast (maybe even selling some of his principles down the river) – both of these will turn off floating voters!
Don’t be surpised if Labour loses badly in Delyn.
Blair may have had charisma, but did he have sincerity?
Why does this area always get the PC people moaning about it nor being Welsh enough?
Historically, this area was the gateway to Wales. It is where the fighting happened, were the local Welsh people died defending their little patch of Earth – and that attitude to Wales is still here.
That is why you see that they keep a much closer note of what is happening to the East than to the West – it is more important!
While David Hanson has done a good job locally, I think he is going to get tarred with the anti NuLabour brush and the Tories are going in here.
There isn’t as much of a chance for the Tory vote to get lost with the UKIP protest, but if it happens, then David could be saved for another term!
A swing of 9.25% is a bit on the high side even for Wales. The most recent poll showed a considerably lower swing to the Conservatives than that in Wales, and unless David Hanson is exceptionally unpopular (which I don’t think he is) or the Tories fight an exceptionally brilliant campaign (which at present they’re not) Labour should hold on. Smokey’s prediction is ludicrous and typical of his current troll mode.