Delyn
2005 Results:
Labour: 15540 (45.7%)
Conservative: 8896 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6089 (17.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 2524 (7.4%)
Other: 955 (2.8%)
Majority: 6644 (19.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9220 (26.6%)
Labour: 17825 (51.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5329 (15.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2262 (6.5%)
Majority: 8605 (24.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10607 (26.7%)
Labour: 22300 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4160 (10.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1558 (3.9%)
Referendum: 1117 (2.8%)
Majority: 11693 (29.4%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: David Hanson (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Antoinette Sandbach (Conservative) Educated at Nottingham University. Barrister , now working for David Jones MP. Contested Delyn in the Welsh Assembly elections 2007.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69627
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 17%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.2%
Owner-Occupied: 75.2%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 13.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.2%
‘As would Vale of Glamorgan big time and many other properous Welsh seats. Interesting.’
Monmouth and Clywd West should never have left the Tories in the first place although I was surprised that the Tories Presseli Pembrokeshire
I would have thought Aberconway, Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff North are dead certs for the Tories, although the Vale of Glamorgan surprises me as I would have thought the majority of the electorate come from Barry - which having been there struck me as a typical South Welsh town (and surely staunchly Labour)
It’s funny - a lot of Welsh Tory MPs had repuations as being quite left of centre (Nigel Birch, Anthony Meyer, Keith Raffan, Keith Best, Jonathan Evans, Gwilym Jones etc) but the three who represent Wales at the moment (David David, Stephen Crabb and David Jones) are three of the most right wing MPs in the whole Tory Party
How times change
I am only writing this to alert others interested int the whole Wales election thingy.
Not a betting man - but I do fear David H maybe looking at alternative employment soon.
Not a good seat for us in Plaid - I live near the only Plaid hotspot but the rest is hard work.
My guess is that Delyn is a switch seat and if they get this then the Tories are onto a good thing - still no left wing Tory option but Jonsey and David TC Davies are right wingers - Stephen Crabbe is still rather bland but nice - the Tories could do with a figurehead - Aberconwy anyone?; also we have the few AMs still there looking after their South Wales seats. Jonathan Morgan after his little Italian boo-boo may be a good face for Welsh Tories.
My guess so far - given the look around is they get 7 seats (3 so far + C North, Vale of Glam, Delyn and Aberconwy)
I hope my Plaid logo appears this time….work in progress here (still hate with a vengence this new yellow splat we have developed - we look more like New Labour and cussly Tories with a non descript meaningless doodle for which we squandered many thousands of £s)
Any other party members in other parties also hate the corporate logo and sonic logo baloney we all seem to have been fooled by……?
‘My guess so far - given the look around is they get 7 seats (3 so far + C North, Vale of Glam, Delyn and Aberconwy)’
I think Delyn might be beyond them to be honest as on current boundaries (minus Tory-voting Prestatyn) it wouldn’t have even been Tory in 1983 - strange but true
It would have been in 1983 - no way would Prestatyn alone have accounted for a majority of nearly 6,000. It wouldnt have been in 1987 though.
I do agree though that Delyn is likely to be beyond the Tories barring a 1997-in-reverse type scenario, which is highly unlikely
” “Peter Crerar ”
2010 -
Conservative: 12000
Labour: 11500
Plaid Cymru: 6500
Liberal Democrat: 3000
Other: 1000
Majority: 500 ”
Was this the real Peter Crerar, or the impersonator who put the Blackpool N prediction.
It’s plausible, but I don’t think the Conservatives can take this.
Living on the border of the Delyn and Vale constituemcies I reckon that David will keep his seat but with a shock in his majority.
The seat needing a look at come election night is Vale of Clwyd - the Conservatives are really going for it here and have a chance.
David H is safer. The Conservative here is less high profile than Matt Wright in VoC and appears to have less high profile workers.
It is a rare week when I am not informed by local Tories about how good Matt is - yet the info I get on Antoinette is much less. (live really near the border of the two and work a lot over in Mold)
Chris Ruane is a local lad and MP but I am beginning to think he may be back to teaching in 2010.
David Hanson -my guess - next majority less, quite a bit less than 1000 - may be 200-400.
I used to Work in Mostyn, Flintshire, and met David Hanson. He is popular in Flintshire. My prediction is that he will just about hang on. Neighborouring Alun and Deeside, which looks safer on paper, might be more of a challenge for labour.
This now more looking like as follows:
Conservative: 14,000
Labour: 10,000
Plaid: 4500
Liberal Democrat: 4000
Neil, unfortunately I don’t think this would be the case. I think Lab and Con are neck and neck in Delyn at the moment. It will be very close.