Dartford
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24428 (48.78%)
Labour: 13800 (27.56%)
Liberal Democrat: 7361 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.68%)
English Democrat: 2178 (4.35%)
Independent: 264 (0.53%)
Others: 207 (0.41%)
Majority: 10628 (21.22%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19309 (42.7%)
Conservative: 18725 (41.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4623 (10.2%)
Other: 2541 (5.6%)
Majority: 583 (1.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19203 (41.1%)
Labour: 19909 (42.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5036 (10.8%)
UKIP: 1407 (3%)
Other: 1224 (2.6%)
Majority: 706 (1.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18160 (40.6%)
Labour: 21466 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 3781 (8.5%)
UKIP: 989 (2.2%)
Other: 344 (0.8%)
Majority: 3306 (7.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20950 (40.3%)
Labour: 25278 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4827 (9.3%)
Other: 943 (1.8%)
Majority: 4328 (8.3%)
Boundary changes: Only minor changes, with Dartford losing Horton Kirby and South Darenth, while gaining the hamlet of Hodsall Street.
Profile: The last seat in Kent before Greater London, Dartford is a former industrial area that is now largely a commuter town. The town is undergoing rapid expansion with large scale housing projects around the Bluewater shopping centre and Ebbsfleet, which will be served by the high speed Channel tunnel raillink. Dartford itself contains strong Labour areas like the Tree and Temple Hill housing estates, but is balanced out by outlying Conservative supporting areas like Joydens Wood and Longfield.
Following the 2010 election (and Labour holding onto former bellwethers Chorley and Luton South) Dartford is the country`s strongest bellwether seat, having returned an MP from the party that went on to win the election since 1964.
Current MP: Gareth Johnson (Conservative) born 1969. Educated at Dartford Grammar School. Solicitor. Former Bexley councillor. Contested Lewisham West 2001, Dartford 2005. MP for Dartford since 2010.
Gareth Johnson (Conservative) born 1969. Educated at Dartford Grammar School. Solicitor. Former Bexley councillor. Contested Lewisham West 2001, Dartford 2005
John Adams (Labour) Educated at University of Wales. Journalist and former Bank of England regulator. Contested Ashford 2001, Brentford and Ongar 2005.
James Willis (Liberal Democrat) Account manager.
Richard Palmer (UKIP) Born Sheffield. Formerly worked for the Air Ambulance Service.
Gary Rogers (English Democrat) born 1967. Taxi driver.
Stephane Tindame (Independent) Self-employed customs agent
Ernie Crockford (Fancy Dress) Retired civil servant.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91782
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.5%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 94.7%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 0.7%
Sikh: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 12.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.1%
This looks almost impossible for Labour to hold. Indeed in 2005 it was provisionally reported as a Tory gain before officially declaring.
JJB – the BBC said early on election night that the Conservatives claim they have won Dartford – no idea where it came from since the ballot boxes hadn’t even been opened at that point, though knocking up was very positive. I have a worrying fear that that the BBC may have got the rumour from me being very positive in Mike Smithson’s comments section
In 2005 Labour campaigned strongly on opposing the redevelopment of Dartford town centre, a plan which would have involved pedestrianising the whole town centre and redirecting traffic along a new road through Dartford park: Labour campaigned very successfully on a Save Our Park slogan. They probably held the seat on a combination of that issue and internal ructions within the Conservative association which blunted their campaigning.
Planning permission for the road through the park was eventually called in by the government and refused, so while the town centre redevelopment will probably still be an issue in some shape or form come the next election, the emotive question of the road through the park won’t be.
I really can’t see Datford remaining a reliable bellwether… the Tories almost won it in 2005, so they’ll probably take it next time even if Labour remains the largest party.
As for Chorley, even if the Tories were to become the largest party in 2009/10 I think there’s a good chance that the seat would remain Labour.
That should obviously be ‘Dartford’ in the first line.
Yes, it’s interesting how 2 seats like Dartford and Chorley used to have pretty similar results, but no longer.
In fact, in 1979, the Tories gained Dartford by 1,392 votes, but in Chorley they gained the seat by even more, 2,579 votes.
Dartford was increased in size in 1983 to take in a large rural area. There would have been a large swing in 1983 anyway but not to increase the majority from 1,392 to 15,000.
The Tory MP prior to 1997 was the late Bob Dunn,
who gained the seat in 1979.
He had an odd career. He was a staunch Thatcherite, and was appointed a junior education Minister in 1983, and stayed in that same post until 1988, when he got the sack.
Regarding the first comment in this thread, one of the most annoying things about election night is always having to listen to people making predictions from the counting centre about who’s going to win. A lot of the time, these predictions are made after only a tiny fraction of the ballot boxes have been opened, and sometimes before any have been opened at all.
Apparently, Howard Stoate is quite popular here, i gather something about getting higher % of tolls from the Dartford Crossing.
A lot of new housing means this seat is hard to predict, and the new rail link might bring housing or business. it is a very up and coming area, especially bluewater, which is way better than the monstrousity north of the thames is thurrock!
Council is Tory run, but with residents association help, and from what I understand the RA is a very diverse group, making a hard to pick seat harder.
just a final point about the redevelopment- Labour did not oppose the redevelopment they opposed the road through the park.
I agree with Andy Stidwill that it’s hard to stop many people who like politics from making predictions before ballots have been counted,and it needs to be done with care if atall.
The worst culprits for tidbits of gossip about winning here there and everywhere seem to be the Lib Dims who have sneaked pagers etc. in. Perhaps he will reprimand them.!
I was interested to see Labour held this council in May 1976 and May 1979 – I assumed this was a swing area, and that the Tories would have won here without too much difficulty in the late 70s, under a Labour government.
I think it could be one of those areas where FPTP hurts the Tories in local elections as they pile up large majorities in their strongholds while Labour can win a majority of seats with much smaller majorities. I dont know if this was the case but I wouldnt be surprised if in 76 and 79 the Tories won the popular vote in the borough but Labour won most seatrs because of that syndrome. The same occurred in Gravesham in 2003. TheTories won 55% of the popular vote to 42% for Labour yet Labour won a majority of seats on the council. This was also a problem for the Tories in Watford in the days before the Lib Dems started winning everything. labour frequently won a majority of seats despite winning fewer votes than the Tories.
Joe – Dartford constituency used to include several wards from Sevenaoks, villages like Fawkham, Horton Kirby, Hartley and so on which were always more Conservative. As Dartford has grown the Sevenoaks wards have gradually been chipped away, until now there is only Hartley & Hodsall Street. So these days the council and seat are pretty comparable – back in 1979 Dartford borough itself was probably still pretty Labour, but the Sevenoaks wards would have let Bob win the Parliamentary seat.
At at council level the Conservatives do pile up huge great majorites in Joydens Wood and Longfield, but there are solidly Labour areas like the Tree estate and Temple Hill. Once upon a time before it was a stronghold of the local residents association Swanscombe used to turn in monsterous Labour majorities that could easily match the Tory majorities in Joydens Wood.
Pete, Anthony
Many thanks for these explanations…..very interesting and useful. Actually Gravesham is strange aswell – I never quite understood how it produced exactly the same result in seats in 1987 and 1991, and this helps a lot.
I do recall a senior Labour councillor being very disappointed and surprised not to get control in May 1991, I suppose both these authorities are about where you get the votes in the right places, even more than most.