Comments on: Dartford

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 22:08:48 +0000

Thanks for the prompt reply – I suspected you might have the figures Pete.

Well here we see a substantial swing to the Conservatives – both parties are of course down compared to 1950/51 in the national vote.

I think in 1950,
Labour won by 38,000 to Conservatives 24,000
and in 1951
it was 40,000 to 27,000

and IIRC no Liberal candidates.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 16:41:20 +0000

As it happens I have figures I worked out recently as part of a series I am doing on the 2010 election on old boundaries in London (since the dominant element of that Dartford seat was Erith & Crayford it is included)

Con 29082 43.3%
Lab 22648 33.7%
LD 8432 12.6%
BNP 2280 3.4%
UKIP 2168 3.2%
Grn 303 0.5%
Oth 2211 3.3%

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 16:09:06 +0000

Pete,
please could you do an estimate of how
the 2010 General Election would have looked
on the 1950/51 Dartford seat?

Not sure this can be unscrambled from the reverse scenario you have calculated.

By: LBernard

LBernard — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 07:50:08 +0000

I would imagine the new developments around Bluewater and Greenhithe will only help to make this seat more Conservative in the future.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Tue, 10 May 2011 09:29:26 +0000

That would be different then & the result is more easily explicable.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 10 May 2011 09:15:48 +0000

As I had suspected the reported figures on the council website were incorrect. They had counted all votes cast, rather than averaging out the votes for candidates in multi member wards. Gravesham has a mixture of three and two member wards with one single member ward. This means they are counting votes in three member wards three times. It happens that Labour won most of the three member wards while the Conservatives won most of the two member wards. This means that not only did the Conservatives win a sizeable plurality of votes (between 1,500 and 2,000 depending on whether you take highest vote or average vote) but they won an absolute majority of votes. The same thing happend in 2003

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 09 May 2011 21:34:22 +0000

Yes that was strange, & I’ve yet to see a convincing explanation for it. I know that one area, Shorne, is particularly overwhelmingly Conservative & perhaps they just got their vote out better there and in their better parts of Gravesend & other tiny villagey bits than Labour in Northfleet & their stronger parts of Gravesend. Even so, it was distinctly odd. The result does put the seat back, even if a bit faintly, on Labour’s target list, but it will need to be a big national Labour win for it to fall. One disadvantage the Tories will have is that Adam Holloway will no longer have first-time incumbency, but that won’t make that huge a difference. Of course, the boundary changes will be of great importance in North Kent & can make or mar Labour & the Tories alike.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 09 May 2011 21:29:14 +0000

I think it is significant not least because it is mostly Sikh which is an overwhelmingly strong Labour demographic still and influences a number of wards in Gravesham. However these were I think mostly in Labour’s hands already. The strange thing was the Conservatives winning here in 2005 while failing in Dartford (and all the other Kent marginals)

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 09 May 2011 21:26:21 +0000

Indeed. Dartford looks to have ended its bellwether status which it’s enjoyed since 1964, in that Labour could gain a large majority in Parliament and still not gain the seat now. Why it’s behaved so differently from Gravesham would be interesting for someone with local knowledge to explain, since the seats appear to have strong similarities. Is one slight factor the larger non-white vote in Gravesham? I still wouldn’t imagine it’s that significant even so.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 09 May 2011 19:57:13 +0000

The above was a good prediction. We know of course that Labour also gained Gravesham. That is a council where Labour can often win a majority of seats without winning the popular vote, but in fact their website showed the voting figures as being 49% Labour to 48% Conservative. I’m not sure what methodolgy they used however. Some authorities ludicrously count allm votes cast so in three member wards the each voter will be counted three times, and only once in single member wards. Anyway they situation was different here. Modesty did not prevent Anthony Wells revealing in another place trhat he enjoyed an 8.4% swing from Labour in his ward in Dartford, but it would probably prevent him from doing so here. I don’t know how typical this was in Dartford. To be perfectly honest, when I get around to looking at the detailed results in various councils, Dartford isn’t very high up the agenda. But the Conservatives did gain five seats in total and three of these were from Labour. So an interesting contrast to the neighbouring borough