Dartford
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24428 (48.78%)
Labour: 13800 (27.56%)
Liberal Democrat: 7361 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1842 (3.68%)
English Democrat: 2178 (4.35%)
Independent: 264 (0.53%)
Others: 207 (0.41%)
Majority: 10628 (21.22%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19309 (42.7%)
Conservative: 18725 (41.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4623 (10.2%)
Other: 2541 (5.6%)
Majority: 583 (1.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19203 (41.1%)
Labour: 19909 (42.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5036 (10.8%)
UKIP: 1407 (3%)
Other: 1224 (2.6%)
Majority: 706 (1.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18160 (40.6%)
Labour: 21466 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 3781 (8.5%)
UKIP: 989 (2.2%)
Other: 344 (0.8%)
Majority: 3306 (7.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20950 (40.3%)
Labour: 25278 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4827 (9.3%)
Other: 943 (1.8%)
Majority: 4328 (8.3%)
Boundary changes: Only minor changes, with Dartford losing Horton Kirby and South Darenth, while gaining the hamlet of Hodsall Street.
Profile: The last seat in Kent before Greater London, Dartford is a former industrial area that is now largely a commuter town. The town is undergoing rapid expansion with large scale housing projects around the Bluewater shopping centre and Ebbsfleet, which will be served by the high speed Channel tunnel raillink. Dartford itself contains strong Labour areas like the Tree and Temple Hill housing estates, but is balanced out by outlying Conservative supporting areas like Joydens Wood and Longfield.
Following the 2010 election (and Labour holding onto former bellwethers Chorley and Luton South) Dartford is the country`s strongest bellwether seat, having returned an MP from the party that went on to win the election since 1964.
Current MP: Gareth Johnson (Conservative) born 1969. Educated at Dartford Grammar School. Solicitor. Former Bexley councillor. Contested Lewisham West 2001, Dartford 2005. MP for Dartford since 2010.
Gareth Johnson (Conservative) born 1969. Educated at Dartford Grammar School. Solicitor. Former Bexley councillor. Contested Lewisham West 2001, Dartford 2005
John Adams (Labour) Educated at University of Wales. Journalist and former Bank of England regulator. Contested Ashford 2001, Brentford and Ongar 2005.
James Willis (Liberal Democrat) Account manager.
Richard Palmer (UKIP) Born Sheffield. Formerly worked for the Air Ambulance Service.
Gary Rogers (English Democrat) born 1967. Taxi driver.
Stephane Tindame (Independent) Self-employed customs agent
Ernie Crockford (Fancy Dress) Retired civil servant.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91782
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.5%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 94.7%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 0.7%
Sikh: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 12.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.1%
Indeed. Dartford looks to have ended its bellwether status which it’s enjoyed since 1964, in that Labour could gain a large majority in Parliament and still not gain the seat now. Why it’s behaved so differently from Gravesham would be interesting for someone with local knowledge to explain, since the seats appear to have strong similarities. Is one slight factor the larger non-white vote in Gravesham? I still wouldn’t imagine it’s that significant even so.
I think it is significant not least because it is mostly Sikh which is an overwhelmingly strong Labour demographic still and influences a number of wards in Gravesham. However these were I think mostly in Labour’s hands already. The strange thing was the Conservatives winning here in 2005 while failing in Dartford (and all the other Kent marginals)
Yes that was strange, & I’ve yet to see a convincing explanation for it. I know that one area, Shorne, is particularly overwhelmingly Conservative & perhaps they just got their vote out better there and in their better parts of Gravesend & other tiny villagey bits than Labour in Northfleet & their stronger parts of Gravesend. Even so, it was distinctly odd. The result does put the seat back, even if a bit faintly, on Labour’s target list, but it will need to be a big national Labour win for it to fall. One disadvantage the Tories will have is that Adam Holloway will no longer have first-time incumbency, but that won’t make that huge a difference. Of course, the boundary changes will be of great importance in North Kent & can make or mar Labour & the Tories alike.
As I had suspected the reported figures on the council website were incorrect. They had counted all votes cast, rather than averaging out the votes for candidates in multi member wards. Gravesham has a mixture of three and two member wards with one single member ward. This means they are counting votes in three member wards three times. It happens that Labour won most of the three member wards while the Conservatives won most of the two member wards. This means that not only did the Conservatives win a sizeable plurality of votes (between 1,500 and 2,000 depending on whether you take highest vote or average vote) but they won an absolute majority of votes. The same thing happend in 2003
That would be different then & the result is more easily explicable.
I would imagine the new developments around Bluewater and Greenhithe will only help to make this seat more Conservative in the future.
Pete,
please could you do an estimate of how
the 2010 General Election would have looked
on the 1950/51 Dartford seat?
Not sure this can be unscrambled from the reverse scenario you have calculated.
As it happens I have figures I worked out recently as part of a series I am doing on the 2010 election on old boundaries in London (since the dominant element of that Dartford seat was Erith & Crayford it is included)
Con 29082 43.3%
Lab 22648 33.7%
LD 8432 12.6%
BNP 2280 3.4%
UKIP 2168 3.2%
Grn 303 0.5%
Oth 2211 3.3%
Thanks for the prompt reply – I suspected you might have the figures Pete.
Well here we see a substantial swing to the Conservatives – both parties are of course down compared to 1950/51 in the national vote.
I think in 1950,
Labour won by 38,000 to Conservatives 24,000
and in 1951
it was 40,000 to 27,000
and IIRC no Liberal candidates.