Dartford
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19309 (42.7%)
Conservative: 18725 (41.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4623 (10.2%)
Other: 2541 (5.6%)
Majority: 583 (1.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19203 (41.1%)
Labour: 19909 (42.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5036 (10.8%)
UKIP: 1407 (3%)
Other: 1224 (2.6%)
Majority: 706 (1.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18160 (40.6%)
Labour: 21466 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 3781 (8.5%)
UKIP: 989 (2.2%)
Other: 344 (0.8%)
Majority: 3306 (7.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20950 (40.3%)
Labour: 25278 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4827 (9.3%)
Other: 943 (1.8%)
Majority: 4328 (8.3%)
Boundary changes: Only minor changes, with Dartford losing Horton Kirby and South Darenth, while gaining the hamlet of Hodsall Street.
Profile: The last seat in Kent before Greater London, Dartford is a former industrial area that is now largely a commuter town. The town is undergoing rapid expansion with large scale housing projects around the Bluewater shopping centre and Ebbsfleet, which will be served by the high speed Channel tunnel raillink. Dartford itself contains strong Labour areas like the Tree and Temple Hill housing estates, but is balanced out by outlying Conservative supporting areas like Joydens Wood and Longfield.
Following the Conservative victory in Gravesham in 2005 Dartford is now, along with Chorley, the country`s strongest bellwether seat, having returned an MP from the party that went on to win the election since 1964 (Luton South arguably has a longer record – back to 1951 – but has gone through incarnations of Luton South, Luton East and Luton during that time)
Outgoing MP: Howard Stoate(Labour) born 1954. Howard Stoate remains a practicing GP and as an MP has taken an interest in health matters. He is a Labour loyalist and served as PPS to John Denham and then Estelle Morris during the last Parliament. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Gareth Johnson (Conservative) born 1969. Educated at Dartford Grammar School. Solicitor. Former Bexley councillor. Contested Lewisham West 2001, Dartford 2005
John Adams (Labour) Educated at University of Wales. Journalist and former Bank of England regulator. Contested Ashford 2001, Brentford and Ongar 2005.
James Willis (Liberal Democrat) Account manager.
Gary Rogers (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91782
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.5%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 94.7%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 0.7%
Sikh: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 15.9% (Council: 12.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.1%
The swing back to Labour would have to go considerably further for Labour to save this seat.
Particularly as local issues are against Labour. For instance, a recent Network Rail review could find no sensible way of alleviating rail undercapacity in Kent, beyond extending the Crossrail scheme to Ebbsfleet, but I believe that Labour proposes to concentrate railway investment on the North. (To declare an interest In relation to this, incidentally, I have had a letter published in “Kent on Sunday” suggesting that the County Council’s hopes for an additional Dartford Crossing should include an additional railway crossing which would, amongst other things, open up possiblities for more commuter trains from North Kent across the Essex marshes into London, presumably alongside the new high-speed line.)
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html