Dagenham and Rainham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15183 (34.33%)
Labour: 17813 (40.27%)
Liberal Democrat: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.55%)
Green: 296 (0.67%)
Christian: 305 (0.69%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 2630 (5.94%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19032 (48.2%)
Conservative: 12451 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3420 (8.7%)
BNP: 2616 (6.6%)
Other: 1991 (5%)
Majority: 6581 (16.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7841 (25.4%)
Labour: 15446 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3106 (10.1%)
BNP: 2870 (9.3%)
UKIP: 1578 (5.1%)
Majority: 7605 (24.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7091 (25.7%)
Labour: 15784 (57.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2820 (10.2%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Other: 507 (1.8%)
Majority: 8693 (31.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6705 (18.5%)
Labour: 23759 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 2704 (7.5%)
Referendum: 1411 (3.9%)
Other: 1584 (4.4%)
Majority: 17054 (47.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes – Dagenham loses three wards (Albion, Parsloes and Valence) from the Becontree estate to
Profile: Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Despite the removal of most of the Becontree estate, the area remains largely white working class and Labour voting. The BNP performed strongly in the 2006 Borough elections in Barking and Dagenham, but this was largely confined to the wards that make up the new Barking seat, especially the three Becontree wards that move out of the Dagenham seat.
Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham. The Rainham marshes were one of the proposed sites for the planned supercasino, but failed to make the final shortlist.
Current MP: Jon Cruddas(Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Simon Jones (Conservative) born 1974, Essex. Project manager. Stood as a list candidate in the 2004 London Assembly elections. Contested Pontefract and Castleford 2005.Jon Cruddas(Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Joseph Bourke (Liberal Democrat) Debbie Rosaman (Green)Craig Litwin (UKIP)
Michael Barnbrook (BNP) Born Essex. Educated at Plaistow Grammar School. Retired policeman. Contested London in 2009 European elections.
Paula Watson (Christian) Born 1970. Runs a business selling festive decorations. Contested London elections 2008, London region 2009 European election.
Gordon Kennedy (Independent) Born 1965, Clydebank. Production Manager.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95382
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 91%
Black: 4.2%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.8%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 21.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
Matt’s far nearer the truth than Oliver.
If the BNP do well here, then yes it will be very close for Jon Cruddas.. My spreadsheet has him holding on by about 700
Be interested in any local knowledge on the late change of LD candidate
LAB HOLD
total pieces of election bumff received since the starting pistol was fired was as follows.
Con:4 pieces from ppc incl. 1 personally addressed + 1 shared 50/50 with local coucil election.
4 pieces from con.central offices incl. 1 personally addressed.
Lab:2 pieces incl. 1 shared 50/50 wiyh local council election.
BNP: 2 pieces.
Ind : 1 piece
Lib Dem: zero
Green: nope
UKIP: zilch
Christ.: nada
To round off I think having general and local elections together will see many sitting councilors especially in London rueing the day.
Havering council :CON: 18
R.A. :16
Lab: 13
Ind R.A: 4
BNP: 2
A.N Other: 1
Barking and Dag. LAB: 25
BNP: 18
Con: 5
A,N.Other: 2
Christ: 1
BNP GAIN
I agree with Matt
Not that it matters at this late stage but the late change of Lib Dem candidate was due to ill health
Just in from a stroll round the manor,I think turn-out will be slightly higher than I first thought ,so result as posted above but numbers up 5 – 7 %
When are the results announced this area?
Matt that was a pretty good prediction. Well done.
Not to good with my number crunching but at least my 1 2 3 4
correct.
Way way out regards council seats but you can always bet your money on the schizoid voters of Sth.Hornchurch ward.
This time 1 Con 1 Lab + 1 Ind R.A.
Although there was a swing of 5% to the Tories their vote only increased by 0.86% with the R+T figures, a disappointing result for them.
Interestingly, part of the Havering area (Rainham) regained Labour representation with this result.
Pete,
How large would Brian Goulds majority have been in 1983 and 1987 on the current Dagenham and Rainham boundaries?
Pete,
Assume that Goulds majority would have been just a few hundred in these years.
It would have been a Tory seat in 1983 and 1987 – too close to call in 1992
in which case Pete it’s a rare example of Labour doing better in an outer London-Essex WWC seat than in 1992. Enfield N is more multiethnic than this seat though perhaps it can count as another.
Indeed but I do wonder how the figures may have changed since 2001. This seat was 91% white then and Enfield North was 86% white but this was a long time ago now and there has been massive changes in some of these areas. Enfield North took me by surprise as I hadn’t had occasion to visit the area recently and hadn’t really been aware the extent to which it was starting to resemble Edmonton. It is possible the same process has been underway here.
Another thing to note of course is that while in Enfield North Labour’s share of nearly 40% does represent a very big increase compared with the 1980s, their share here doesn’t (it is slightly above what they would have won in 1987). The difference is that the Conservative share is much lower and you have nearly 15% voting for UKIP and the BNP – voters who would have likely been attracted to the Conservatives in the 1980s (and still can be in other circumstances now, such as in the Mayoral election when this seat was easily carried by Boris Johnson). An election fought on AV would be interesting with the 2010 configuration of party support repeated
Again this would be an interesting seat to watch at the next GE. I dont think 10 years ago anyone would have predicted the massive demographic change that has taken place here, the rise (and fall) of the BNP and the Tories making substantial gains in a traditionally solid Labour area. It futher supports the notion that the Conservatives are now being percieved as the party of the WWC, however not by all. I would almost certainly say the local Conservatives need to get their act together to attempt to start winning council seats, particularly in Chadwell Heath and Rush Green – and actually challenge the Labour council who holds all 51council seats in the borough. If the Tories could secure some of the Becontree estate votes (those votors who swiched from Labour to the BNP) maybe placing more right leaning figures to fight for them that would make this seat even more interesting.
Notionally Dagenham North is more marginal than the current and more affluent Dagenham & Rainham.
Could this be down to Andrew Rosindell’s personal vote in the Romford wards? He has transformed Romford from being a Labour seat into one of the safest Tory seats anywhere.
Could the Romford wards move back in Labours favour without Rosindell’s personal support, and consiquently mean that in real terms that Dagenham North is not really so marginal?
Yes I think thats probably right. The two Romford wards tend to have been the most Labour areas now in that seat and would have been pretty evenly balanced in more normal years and quite strongly for Labour I guess in a year like 1997. Brooklands (on somewhat different boundareies) was I think the base of Arthur Latham, former Paddington MP and later Labour leader of Havering council.
The names of the propeosed constituencies as well as the boundaries are pretty silly here. Why is Barking renamed as Barking & Dagenham when it actually loses most of the parts of Dagenham currently included?
The only part of the new seat which is Dagenham would be River ward. This ‘Dagenham North’ will include almost all of Dagenham, but it also reaches well into Romford, virtually to the town centre. This is one of the proposals which is ripe for challenge.
I imagine a closely fought contest here between Labour and the Conservatives. i agree Pete, a new name is needed for this seat.
Dagenham and Romford West could be a possible suggestion.
It would be an accurate description which itself reveals how flawed this seat is. It reaches virtually into the centre of Romford, touching the inner ring road. There is no need whatsoever to break up Romford in this way and I’m sure there will be vigorous objections from that area to being put into a seat called Dagenham North!
Agree. The Commission’s proposals are unnecessarily radical in East London. They only needed to add a couple of Redbridge wards to either Barking or Romford to get seats of the right size, with shuffling of a ward or two in Havering/B & D.
How else could East London be redrawn John? I have been trying to redraw the East London boundaries myself…but so far am proving hopeless at it!
Maybe Pete may be able to suggest alternative East London seats?
The people of Brooklands and Mawneys are not going to be happy being in a seat called Dagenham at all! To saw West Romford away from the rest of the town just does not make sense to me.