Dagenham and Rainham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15183 (34.33%)
Labour: 17813 (40.27%)
Liberal Democrat: 3806 (8.6%)
BNP: 4952 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1569 (3.55%)
Green: 296 (0.67%)
Christian: 305 (0.69%)
Independent: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 2630 (5.94%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19032 (48.2%)
Conservative: 12451 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3420 (8.7%)
BNP: 2616 (6.6%)
Other: 1991 (5%)
Majority: 6581 (16.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7841 (25.4%)
Labour: 15446 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3106 (10.1%)
BNP: 2870 (9.3%)
UKIP: 1578 (5.1%)
Majority: 7605 (24.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7091 (25.7%)
Labour: 15784 (57.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2820 (10.2%)
BNP: 1378 (5%)
Other: 507 (1.8%)
Majority: 8693 (31.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6705 (18.5%)
Labour: 23759 (65.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 2704 (7.5%)
Referendum: 1411 (3.9%)
Other: 1584 (4.4%)
Majority: 17054 (47.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes – Dagenham loses three wards (Albion, Parsloes and Valence) from the Becontree estate to
Profile: Like Longbridge in Birmingham, Dagenham is synomonous with the motor trade, in this case with the Ford Motor Works. With the downgrading of the factory in 2002 the influence of Ford in the area is waning. Despite the removal of most of the Becontree estate, the area remains largely white working class and Labour voting. The BNP performed strongly in the 2006 Borough elections in Barking and Dagenham, but this was largely confined to the wards that make up the new Barking seat, especially the three Becontree wards that move out of the Dagenham seat.
Like neighbouring Barking the seat is undergoing large scale redevelopment of brownfield industrial land along the banks of the river Thames, including the London Riverside Conservation Park planned at Rainham. The Rainham marshes were one of the proposed sites for the planned supercasino, but failed to make the final shortlist.
Current MP: Jon Cruddas(Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Simon Jones (Conservative) born 1974, Essex. Project manager. Stood as a list candidate in the 2004 London Assembly elections. Contested Pontefract and Castleford 2005.Jon Cruddas(Labour) born 1962, Helson. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and the University of Warwick. Former Seputy Political Secretary to Tony Blair and policy advisor to the Labour party. First elected as MP for Dagenham in 2001. Despite his past working relationship with Tony Blair he has been critical of the party leadership for neglecting Labour`s traditional support. In 2007 he ran for the Deputy leadership of the Labour party (more information at They work for you)
Joseph Bourke (Liberal Democrat) Debbie Rosaman (Green)Craig Litwin (UKIP)
Michael Barnbrook (BNP) Born Essex. Educated at Plaistow Grammar School. Retired policeman. Contested London in 2009 European elections.
Paula Watson (Christian) Born 1970. Runs a business selling festive decorations. Contested London elections 2008, London region 2009 European election.
Gordon Kennedy (Independent) Born 1965, Clydebank. Production Manager.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95382
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 91%
Black: 4.2%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 68.8%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 21.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
One thing the Tories could easily do is grant general election voting rights to all EU citizens who live here.
That would undoubtedly help them hold London marginals like Croydon Central where there are a lot of EU immigrants in addition to a rapidly increasing non-white population.
Adjusting for class etc, there’s no reason why Poles or Spaniards would be less likely to vote Conservative than white British of the same socio-economic group.
One thing I noticed while looking at the census data was that in many wards the black Caribbean population was declining slightly. This may mean that after about 60 years of living in this country many people from that background are becoming more middle-class and moving out to the suburbs or even the home counties. They may eventually consider voting Conservative although on the other hand their numbers are not large, especially compared to the black African population. And if they’re moving to Conservative constituencies it won’t make any difference.
The decline in the Caribbean population is not new and has been in decline for many years now. The main reason for this is due to mixed relationships between Black Caribbean and White British. This also goes some way to explain why the mixed race figures have risen all over the UK. I read somewhere that half of all British Caribbean men and a third of women are in mixed relationships with that figure growing. Had we not had uncontrolled immigration over the last decade I suspect that the amount of British Caribbeans would be even smaller. This particular group also have less children than Black Africans which explains why the latter have overtaken the former as the dominant Black group in the UK. A side factor would be that Africa is a far bigger place made up of countries with large populations compared to the Caribbean which itself contains a mixture of races.
We haven’t had uncontrolled immigration over the past decade. Partisan inaccurate comments don’t help your case. You cone over as Mr Angry of Unbridled Weeks who Likes Things The Way They Used To Be
The Tories won’t give the Eastern Europeans the vote . Unfortunately it’s because of their Euroscepticism even though it may not do them any harm. The problem they have is that they always end up sounding as if they would rather the Immigrant population had never arrived.
There are lots of people in this country who hold such views regardless of whether you like it or not and in a democracy they have to be listened to.
”There are lots of people in this country who hold such views regardless of whether you like it or not and in a democracy they have to be listened to.”
Do you agree with those views Andy?
I certainly agree with what Mike says though. Such comments from LBernard give the impression that a lot of Tories are stuck in something of a Medieval Times mindset on certain issues.
I have a fairly middle-of-the-road attitude to immigration. It has both positive and negative aspects IMO.
“Adjusting for class etc, there’s no reason why Poles or Spaniards would be less likely to vote Conservative than white British of the same socio-economic group.”
The interesting point would be what kind of professions EU immigrants do in UK and so what kind of class they “belong” to.
For ex I was looking at the voting tally of Italians living in UK and Ireland. Italians in Ireland are more left wing than Italians in UK. I guess it depends on the type of people who left the homecountry for UK compared to those who left it for Ireland
“One thing the Tories could easily do is grant general election voting rights to all EU citizens who live here.”
Alternatively to restrict voting to UK citizens. Plenty of third world immigrants to this country hold foreign citizenship but are able to vote in general elections because they are citizens of Commonwealth countries. I don’t have any problem with my wife (who is a Finnish national resident here for over 10 years) not being able to vote in general elections, but I don’t see why the Bangladeshi national down the road who arrived here last week should get the vote, purely by virtue of them being a citizen of a country which is part of the anachronistic and redundant Commonwealth. I’m sure that voters of this type decided a few constituencies in Labour’s favour in 2010 and there is no justification for these people being given the vote
Pete
Completely agree with you there – indeed my wife is in exactly the same situation.
The status quo of some non-citizens having the vote and others not is simply indefensible.
“We haven’t had uncontrolled immigration over the past decade”
Of course we havn’t Mike….I’ll correct myself…We had a decade of controlled open borders by which anyone who was likely to be a reliable Labour voter was invited into the UK. That’s my opinion which seems far more accurate, especially in London and the South East rather than pretending that there is no such issue.So far I have not heard an alternative reason why so many people were allowed to settle in the UK. Maybe you could give me a reason?
LBernard
Apart from a few specifics, such as not putting restrictions on eastern European immigration in 2004, it’s not plausible to blame Labour alone for the large increase in immigration. If it was in any way easy to restrict immigration, the current government would have done so instead of making largely cosmetic changes that have made hardly any overall difference to the numbers coming in.
Rising immigration is a global phenomenon, and exactly the same conversation that we are having is being repeated all over the western world.
The vast majority of non-EU immigrants come as either family members or students. For students it is an enforcement issue….closing down bogus colleges but more importantly enforcing the law on over-stayers.
Family membership is by far the largest route immigrants take however and this is the one which is basically impossible to control. You cannot stop people from marrying foreigners and bringing their spouse here to live.
Enforcement and administration is the biggest failure. Anyone who has had contact with the Home Office or Border Agency in terms of applying for immigration visas will tell you how universally clueless they are. The staff are very low-paid, unmotivated, and frankly crap at their jobs. The interview process for leave to remain that my wife went through was pointless robotic box-ticking. And I’m very sorry to say that the situation has got worse since 2010 not better, due to budget cuts that are economically necessary but conflict with the fact that border control is extremely expensive.
There are no easy answers and David Cameron should have been more honest about that before he was elected.
There has to be a point where you have to say enough is enough. The UK just does not have the space or the infrastructure to handle continuous waves of new people year after year.
I think a large part of the problem is the benefits that migrants can claim and they should also have a timescale that they are allowed to stay in the UK. After that period they should be assessed to see whether they are a benefit or hindrance to the country. You’re right HH having a slack border agency doesn’t help either.
“I think a large part of the problem is the benefits that migrants can claim and they should also have a timescale that they are allowed to stay in the UK. After that period they should be assessed to see whether they are a benefit or hindrance to the country.”
But the highest number of legal immigrants coming to the UK come as spouses or children of UK citizens. If someone is judged to be a bona fide spouse or child of a citizen then they cannot be reasonably denied permanent residency. If we were to prevent our citizens marrying certain foreigners it would provoke an international outcry, as well as causing genuine hardship and inevitably it would be viewed internationally as a racist policy.
If you cannot control what drives the largest percentage of immigration – ie spouses and children of citizens – it follows that you cannot easily control total numbers of immigration.
I fully agree with you on the benefits aspect but I believe the impact of tightening rules would only save money, it wouldn’t much affect number of immigrants.